1. US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook
Presented at the
Sourcing USA Summit II
November 14-17, 2002
Scottsdale, AZ
Prepared by Economic Services
National Cotton Council

2. Cotton Prices

3. World Cotton Supplies USDA: 136 mil bales for ‘02 crop, down from 141 last year

4. World Cotton Supplies 47 mil bales of old-crop cotton

5. World Beginning Stocks By Location
47.8 mil bales
47.5 mil bales

6. World Cotton Supplies USDA puts production at 88 mil bales

7. Change in Cotton Production Down 10 mil bales in 2002 relative to 2001

8. 2002 US Cotton Production (Mil Bales)
down 1.7 from ‘01
5.8 mil bales,
down 1.1 from ‘01
5.4 mil bales,
up 0.9 from ‘01
2.7 mil bales,
down 0.5 from ‘01

9. World Cotton Mill Use USDA: 96.2 mil bales

10. World Fiber Mill Use

11. Textile Polyester Production Source: PCI

12. Change in Cotton Mill Use From ‘01 to ‘02, China accounts for over half of the growth

13. US Cotton Mill Use USDA: 7.7 mil bales

14. US Real GDP Growth

15. Real Exchange Rate Indices Source: Federal Reserve Board

16. US Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports by Country of Origin
* Estimate based on imports as of July

17. US Cotton Mill Use & Supply

18. US Cotton Mill Use, Supply & Exports

19. Summary In 2002, lower production in the US and abroad
Despite drop in production, total supplies still second largest in recent history
Demand growth hinges on general economy and competition from MMF
Current estimates suggest tighter world market for ‘03

20. Producers
Cooperatives
Merchants
Ginners
Crushers
Warehouses
Manufacturers