1. PEV Adoption: Preliminary Forecast
Aniss Bahreinian
July 14, 2017
Demand Analysis Working Group
California Energy Commission

2. Transportation Electrification (TE)
TE included in CEC forecast:
Light Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs)
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs)
Urban Transit Vehicles; rail and bus
Electrified Heavy (commuter) Rail (starting in 2020)
High Speed Rail (starting in 2025)
Electric Medium Duty vehicles
Off-Road Electrification
Air & Sea Port Electrification
Truck Stop Electrification
Forklift
California Energy Commission

3. Transportation Demand Cases
Cases represent different levels of transportation electricity demand
Demand Case
Population
Income
Fuel Prices
Petroleum Fuels
Electricity / Natural Gas / Hydrogen
High Demand
High
Low
Mid
Low Demand
California Energy Commission

4. Transportation Models Key Inputs & Outputs
California Energy Commission

5. Light Duty Vehicle Forecast
Light duty vehicle demand forecast is based on:
The CEC’s residential and commercial surveys of consumer preferences (conducted by Resources Systems Group, RSG).
Updated LDV models based on survey results.
Latest projections of vehicle attributes, accounting for announced/projected technology developments in 2017 and beyond.
California Energy Commission

6. Consumer Preferences Change: 2016 Survey Compared with 2013
Residential
Commercial
Higher preferences for ZEVs, with BEVs being the most favored among ZEVs
Vehicle price is less important
Vehicle price continues to be the most significant attribute
Vehicle range is more important
Tax credit and rebate more important; HOV lane access less important
HOV lane access and Tax credits are both important
Fuel economy is less important
Acceleration is more important 6
California Energy Commission

7. Light-Duty Vehicle Stock Grows with Population and Economy
California Energy Commission

8. Closer Look at Alternative Fuel Vehicle Share Throughout Forecast Light-Duty Vehicle stock Share by Fuel Type , Mid Case
California Energy Commission

9. Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV)
California Energy Commission

10. On-Road Registered PEVs : 2015 & 2016
Source: California Energy Commission Analysis of DMV data
California Energy Commission

11. Share of 2015 State Vehicles, by Utility
California Energy Commission

12. On-Road PEV Stock Forecast
California Energy Commission

13. 2030 PEV by Utility, High Demand
California Energy Commission

14. Commercial vs Residential PEV Stock, Mid Case
California Energy Commission

15. BEV and PHEV Stock, Mid Case
California Energy Commission

16. PEV Forecast by Utility
California Energy Commission

17. SDG&E PEV Forecast
California Energy Commission

18. SDG&E Mid Case
California Energy Commission

19. PG&E PEV forecast
California Energy Commission

20. PG&E Mid Case, PEB by TYpe
California Energy Commission

21. SCE PEV Forecast
California Energy Commission

22. SCE Mid Case
California Energy Commission

23. 2028 PEV Electricity Demand (Gwh)
California Energy Commission

24. Residential Charging Primarily Occurs at Home and Overnight (Self-Reported)
Source: California Vehicle (PEV Owner) Survey, conducted by RSG for California Energy Commission
California Energy Commission

25. Trucks by Fuel Type & Technology
Mid-Size Trucks
Heavy Trucks
California Energy Commission