1. Why Software Estimation is so Painful and How It Doesn’t Have To Be
Tech Ed North America 2010
5/16/ :21 AM
Required Slide
SESSION CODE: DPR207
Why Software Estimation is so Painful and How It Doesn’t Have To Be
Gregg Boer
Principal Program Manager
Microsoft Corporation
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

2. Assuming that there are nearly 7,000,000,000 (7 billion) people on Earth,
Estimate the size of number you'd get if you multiplied together the number of fingers on everyone's hands.
For this calculation, you may count a thumb as a finger.
How many zeroes would this number have?

3. Answer: 1. The number is zero.
Someone in the world has no fingers.
“Copyright © Kevin Stone, at Used with permission.”

4. The question is somewhere in the grid. What’s the answer?
W A H E U K F V I P Z H U U H T J O P N W L A E P W O N T D S W S T R H U O L M V R G A I D P A D W U N R T C S R S E X D A K K E A O M E R L X E R K Y O N J Z I S X N M B I Q E R X F Q X V G Y E V P P E G F W Z W N R O L A J V R J H F K T X U H F K Y E W I F U C S S W C Q R Q Y H R U O M W E O R Q J K H R N M B W U K A J Y D Q E T I Y O E D L R P F
The question is somewhere in the grid. What’s the answer?

5. W A H E U K F V I P Z H U U H T J O P N W L A E P W O N T D S W S T R H U O L M V R G A I D P A D W U N R T C S R S E X D A K K E A O M E R L X E R K Y O N J Z I S X N M B I Q E R X F Q X V G Y E V P P E G F W Z W N R O L A J V R J H F K T X U H F K Y E W I F U C S S W C Q R Q Y H R U O M W E O R Q J K H R N M B W U K A J Y D Q E T I Y O E D L R P F
Answer: 2
Question:
WHAT IS ONE PLUS ONE
“Copyright © Kevin Stone, at Used with permission.”

6. Below is 99. Moving only two lines,
can you turn this into 25?

7. Below is 99. Moving only two lines, can you turn this into 25?
“Copyright © Kevin Stone, at Used with permission.”

8. Let’s get to know each other…

9. Why is software estimation so painful?

10. Software development is puzzle solving

11. An estimate is a statement of probability
50%

13. An example… Now 10% 50% 75% 90% 95% 1 hour 3 hours 5 hours 8 hours
1 week
Now

14. Estimates, Targets, Commitments
Now
Then

15. A not-so-uncommon scenario…
We need this in 6 months!
Now
Then

16. Cone of Uncertainty PMI Definitions +100% -50%
Project cost (effort/cost) 4x
Product
Definition
Detailed
Technical
Requirements
Detailed
Development
Design
“Order of Magnitude” (+75%, -25%)
PMI Definitions
+100%
-50% 2x
“Budget” (+25%, -10%)
“Definitive” (+10%, -5%)
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x

17. A very interesting study…

18. Puzzle solving under pressure is difficult

19. Consequences are pretty severe
Need
work

20. Why do people hate estimating?

21. That’s why. You are being asked to…
commit to hitting a specific target
for a puzzle you have never solved before
when you have the least information
then solve the puzzle under extreme schedule pressure,
and when the date isn’t met, heads roll
That’s why.

23. How long would it take…

24. Effort
Size
Schedule
Data

25. What you need…
Unit
Measure

26. Some existing methods Lines of Code Function Points
Pages of Requirements
Screens or Web Pages

27. Story
Points

28. Break down into user stories
Product Backlog – User Stories
Log in
Priority
Customize landing page
Sign up for delivery
Cancel delivery

29. Get the team together Product Backlog – User Stories Log in
Customize landing page
Cancel delivery
Sign up for delivery
Priority

30. Everyone gets a deck of cards
Planning
Poker 1
Product Backlog – User Stores 2 3 5
Log in 8 13
Priority
Customize landing page 20 40
100
Sign up for delivery ∞
Cancel delivery

31. Calibrate story points
Completed User Stories
Add customer
View customer account
Log history entry
Block account

32. Calibrate story points
Priority
Product Backlog – User Stories
Log in
Customize landing page
Cancel delivery
Sign up for delivery
Completed User Stories
Add customer
View customer account
Log history entry
Block account 5

33. Team members estimate the user story8 1 5

34. Team members share their estimates1 5 8

35. Team members estimate again8 5 5

36. Team members share their estimates again5 5 8

37. Team members agree to an estimate they can all live with5 8 13 5

38. Do the work, collect data
Product Backlog – User Stories
Sprint Backlog
Log in 5
Priority
Customize landing page 8
Sign up for delivery 13
Cancel delivery 5
2 weeks

39. Effort
Size
Schedule
Data

40. Average = 9.5

41. Effort
Size
Schedule
Data

42. ? User Stories 100 story points We need this in 6 months! Now Then
Data says months

43. Advantages of Story Points
Simple
Quicker feedback loops
Team A ≠ Team B

44. Effort
Size
Schedule
Data

45. A tragic tale…

46. What value does the estimate have?

47. Another tragic tale…

49. What visibility do you have?
Product
Definition
Detailed
Technical
Requirements
Detailed
Development
Design

50. Value
Visibility

52. User Stories

53. User Stories

54. User Stories
Velocity = 5 to 15

55. 13
User Stories
Velocity = 13

56. 13 8
User Stories
Velocity = 10.5

57. 13 8
User Stories

58. 13 8
Spike
User Stories ?

59. 13 8
Spike
User Stories

60. 13 8
Spike 10
User Stories
Velocity = 10.5

61. Value
Visibility

62. Kolinahr

63. Types of estimators
Optimist
Padder
Pessimist
Cynic
Pleaser

64. Those asking for the estimate
Money Bags
Intimidator
The End
is Near!
Doomsayer

65. Emotion runs wild
The End
is Near!

66. Snoring…

67. The investment matches the value

68. Expectations based on visibility
Product
Definition
Detailed
Technical
Requirements
Detailed
Development
Design

69. Re-estimate when there is more information

70. Is it an estimate or a commitment?
Now
Then

71. Example: Waterfall project
Information required: Approved Business Requirements
Multiple people estimate separately, then meet to review, revise
Cone of uncertainty applied: (-50%, +100%)
Estimate only
Re-estimate after Detailed Requirements Phase

73. Felix the Frog

74. Suits vs. Shirts

75. Suits vs. Shirts Ask for what they want More senior Good negotiator
Determine what’s possible More junior Good with puzzles

76. What’s the Common goal?
Now

77. The moment of truth…

78. Present in ranges
Mar 1
Now
Then
January - April

79. Demand appropriate investment

80. Show your homework

81. Stand firm

83. Required Reading Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
Required Slide
Track PMs will supply the content for this slide, which will be inserted during the final scrub.
Tech Ed North America 2010
5/16/ :21 AM
Required Reading
Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
by Steve McConnell
Agile Estimating and Planning by Mike Cohn
Many of the principles I talked about are in these two books
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

84. Resources Learning Required Slide www.microsoft.com/teched
Tech Ed North America 2010
5/16/ :21 AM
Required Slide
Resources
Learning
Sessions On-Demand & Community
Microsoft Certification & Training Resources
Resources for IT Professionals
Resources for Developers
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

85. Required Slide
Speakers, please list the Breakout Sessions, Interactive Sessions, Labs and Demo Stations that are related to your session.
Tech Ed North America 2010
5/16/ :21 AM
Related Content
DEV206 | Requirements Management with Microsoft Visual Studio 2010 Team Foundation Server
DPR06-INT | Tough Lessons Learned as a Software Project Manager
DPR01-INT | Agile Planning
Visual Studio Team Foundation Server 2010
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

86. Complete an evaluation on CommNet and enter to win!
Tech Ed North America 2010
5/16/ :21 AM
Required Slide
Complete an evaluation on CommNet and enter to win!
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

87. Tech Ed North America 2010 5/16/2018 10:21 AM
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

88. Credits
Rubik’s Cube
Crossword Puzzle

89. Required Slide Tech Ed North America 2010 5/16/2018 10:21 AM
© 2010 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.