1. Commercial vehicle market trends
Russian Automotive Market Research

2. Truck market, January-April 2017
New truck sales, January-April, 2017/2016, units
New truck sales, shares of TOP-10 brands, January-April, 2017/2016, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

3. Truck market, January-April 2017
Average prices for new trucks, TOP-10 brands
Average prices for new trucks by body types
Brand
Average price, I quarter of 2017, rubles
KAMAZ
GAZ
MAZ
SCANIA
VOLVO
URAL
MERCEDES-BENZ
MAN
DAF
ISUZU
Body type
Average price, I quarter of 2017, rubles
Tractor unit
Dump truck
Dropside truck/curtainsider
Van
Tank
Truck crane
Multifunctional road truck
Refrigerator
Garbage truck
Insulated van
Fuel truck
Mobile workshop
Logging truck
Vacuum truck
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

4. Bus market, January-April 2017
New bus sales, January-April, 2017/2016
New bus sales, shares of TOP-10 brands, January-April, 2017/2016, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

5. LCV market, January-April 2017
New LCV sales, January-April, 2017/2016
New LCV sales, shares of TOP-10 brands, January-April, 2017/2016, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

6. Commercial vehicle market trends, January-April 2017
Trucks
Sales: +36,4%
Against the backdrop of market growth Russian trucks are losing their market share
Growing demand for tonne trucks
Buses
Sales: + 45%
LIAZ, YUTONG and Volgabus showed a considerable growth in sales
LCV
Sales: + 25,8%
MERCEDES-BENZ is the market leader among foreign brands
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

7. Commercial vehicle production, January-April 2017
Truck production
Bus production
LCV production
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

8. New truck sales till 2022, thousand units
Commercial vehicle market forecast
New truck sales till 2022, thousand units
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

9. Commercial vehicle market forecast
New Russian and foreign truck sales till 2022, % (baseline scenario)
New truck sales by price segments till 2022, %
(baseline scenario)
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

10. New bus sales till 2022, thousand units
Commercial vehicle market forecast
New bus sales till 2022, thousand units
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

11. Commercial vehicle market forecast
New Russian and foreign bus sales till 2022, % (baseline scenario)
New bus sales by classes till 2022, %
(baseline scenario)
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

12. New LCV sales till 2022, thousand units
Commercial vehicle market forecast
New LCV sales till 2022, thousand units
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

13. Commercial vehicle market forecast
New Russian and foreign LCV sales till 2022, % (baseline scenario)
New LCV sales by body types till 2022, %
(baseline scenario)
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

14. Commercial vehicle production forecast
Truck production till 2022, thousand units
Russian and foreign truck production till 2022, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

15. Commercial vehicle production forecast
Bus production till 2022, thousand units
Russian and foreign bus production till 2022, %
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

16. LCV production till 2022, thousand units
Commercial vehicle production forecast
LCV production till 2022, thousand units
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

17. Alternative fuel 2022* New gas truck sales: 4 500 – 6 500 units 2022*
New gas bus sales: – 1 400
2022*
New gas LCV sales: – 7 500
* - Forecast
** - Originally manufactured
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

18. Truck market trends Top priority Production Export Market
One of the largest markets in Europe
One of the largest manufacturers in Europe
Big number of production sites of global OEMs
Small production volume of foreign brands
Predominance of Russian brands in production: 85-90%
Export
Export prospects look more promising than in the car segment
Export limitations:
Localization requirements in foreign markets
National standardization systems
Adopting a EU emission standard in emerging markets
Revision of current customs unions, alliances
Tariffs/non-tariffs barriers
Cost of each market penetration/ market size
Severe competition with Chinese, Indian OEMs
Significant overcapacity in production sites in in China
Export possibilities:
«Good enough», reliable truck, high utilization, high mileage, low-cost TCO
Top priority
● Maintain a 50%+ share of Russian trucks
● Import substitution in the segment of foreign trucks
● Increase attractiveness for investors
Market
2/3 of trucks sold – low-cost segment
Dramatic fluctuations in the share of Russian makes: 45-70%
Expansion of imported vehicles during the recovery period
Competition with Chinese OEMs
Customer requirements: greater capacity, more robust suspension systems,
low-cost TCO, fuel efficiency, telematics systems
Key profit drivers for OEMs
Modularization
Telematics/ Connected vehicles
ADAS
Prospects for suppliers
Growth in attractiveness for foreign suppliers during the recovery period
OEMs’ suppliers
Low-cost segment
TIER 1 – KAMAZ, GAZ Group
Aftermarket suppliers
The largest segment – spare parts for Russian, Belorussian makes, diesel trucks
The potential of gas /bi-fuel trucks in the mid-term future is not high.
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

19. LCV market trends Top priority Production Export Market
One of the largest markets in Europe
One of the largest manufacturers in Europe
Small production volume of foreign brands
Predominance of Russian brands in production: 85-95%
Export
Export limitations:
Severe competition with global and Chinese OEMs
Localization requirements in foreign markets
National standardization systems
Adopting a EU emission standard in emerging markets
Revision of current customs unions, alliances
Tariffs/non-tariffs barriers
Cost of each market penetration/ market size
Export possibilities:
«Good enough», reliable LCV, high utilization, high mileage, low-cost TCO
Top priority
● Maintain a 50%+ share of Russian LCV
● Import substitution in the segment of foreign LCV
● Increase attractiveness for investors
Market
Dramatic fluctuations in the share of Russian makes: 50-70%
Prevalence of the low-cost segment
Prevalence of vehicles for cargo transportation
Prevalence of petrol vehicles
Customer requirements: greater capacity, more robust suspension systems
low-cost TCO, fuel efficiency, telematics systems
Key profit drivers for OEMs
Modularization
Telematics/Connected vehicles
ADAS
Prospects for suppliers
Low-cost segment
Russian models
OEMs’ suppliers
TIER 1 – GAZ Group, UAZ, AVTOVAZ
Aftermarket suppliers
The largest segment – spare parts for Russian makes
Petrol/diesel vehicles
The potential of gas /bi-fuel LCV in the mid-term future is not high.
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

20. Bus market trends Top priority Production Export Market
One of the largest markets in Europe
One of the largest manufacturers in Europe
Predominance of Russian brands in production: 99%
Export
Export limitations:
Severe competition with global and Chinese OEMs
Localization requirements in foreign markets
National standardization systems
Adopting a EU emission standard in emerging markets
Revision of current customs unions, alliances
Tariffs/non-tariffs barriers
Cost of each market penetration/ market size
Export possibilities:
«Good enough», reliable bus, high utilization, high mileage, low-cost TCO
Top priority
● Maintain a 80%+ share of Russian buses
● Import substitution in the segment of foreign buses
● Increase attractiveness for investors
Market
Dependence on public procurement
Predominance of the low-cost segment
Prevalence of Russian makes
A considerable share of small class buses
A considerable share of petrol and diesel buses
Steady demand for gas buses as long as supported by the government
Development of public transport in megacities
In megacities – competition with shared mobility, e-hailing
In small towns, rural areas – competitions with private cars
Development of multiple mobility system
Growth in expansion of Belorussian, Chinese, Korean buses during the recovery period
Prospects for suppliers
Growth of attractiveness for foreign suppliers during the recovery period
Low-cost segment
The prospects of gas /bi-fuel buses in the mid-term future are moderate, depend on government support.
OEMs’ suppliers
TIER 1 – GAZ Group,
Aftermarket suppliers
The largest segment – spare parts for Russian makes
Source: Russian Automotive Market Research

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