1. Travel Modelling Group Technical Advisory Committee
March 5, 2014

2. Today’s Agenda 2013-2014 Workplan Progress Report
New TMG Toolbox tools
GTAModel V4 Progress Report
Progress to-date
Auto assignment results
Transit assignment results
Workplan Discussion
Next Meeting: Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 10:00
The next meeting will be held in the ITS Board Room (3rd floor) instead of our usual location

3. Workplan progress
A Year In Review

4. Original Work Plan

5. 2013-2014 Work Plan Progress Task Status Durham Model Conversion
Nearly complete/validation. Partial deployment to Durham.
City of Toronto V2.00 Conversion
Complete. Deployed on December 1, 2013.
2012 Emme Base Network
Complete. Final update sent out January 31, 2014.
TMG Website
Complete. Updated regularly.
Workshops
None yet held. Waiting on computer infrastructure.
GTAModel V4
(see next section)

6. New TMG Toolbox Tools
Matrix Statistics: Produces a report (to file and/or to Logbook) of various matrix summaries (min, max, average) as well as a histogram. An optional weighting matrix can be applied.
Line Group Results: Reports grouped transit line boardings by mode/operator for hard-coded line groups.
Countpost Results: Reports traffic volumes on links with flagged countposts.
Check Network Integrity: Checks that a scenario is prepared for assignment and won’t cause errors.
Various Traffic & Transit Assignment tools for GTAModel V4

7. GTAModel V4 Progress

8. GTA Model V4 (Original) Work Plan
November
December
January
February
2 - 6
9 - 13
16-20
30 - 3
6 - 10
20-24
27-31
3 - 7
Task 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
0. Network Models
Network Estimation
1. Synthesis
2. Car Ownership
3. PORPOW
4. PORPOS
5. NWS Location Choice
6. Rail Access Station Choice
7. TASHA - Activity Generation
8. TASHA - Activity Scheduling
9. TASHA - Mode Choice, etc.
10. External Trips
11. Special Generators
12. Convergence
13. Model system testing (TMG)
TMG Staff (James or Peter)
EJM & TMG Staff (Eric + James or Peter)
Prof. Khandker Habib
Prof. Eric Miller
All TMG Staff (Eric, James, & Peter)
Model deployment by March 3, 2014

9. GTAModel V4 Progress Not Applicable Completed In-Progress
Stage
Model
Designed
Prepared Data
Coded
Debugged
Estimated
Validated
Comment
Population Synthesis
PoRPoW/Car Ownership/Pop Synth all intertwined
Car Ownership
TASHA Activity Generation
TASHA Activity Scheduling
PoRPoW
PoRPoS
NWS Location Choice
Mode Choice
Waiting on Network Assignment to start estimation. Also, DAT mode still needs to be coded
Park-and-Ride Station Choice
Auto Assignment
Transit Assignment
(see subsequent slides)
Fare-Based Transit Assignment
May or may not be needed in the final version.
External Trips
Airport Model
Completed
In-Progress
Not Yet Begun
Not Applicable

10. Network Assignment
GTAModel V4 Progress Update

11. Auto Assignment
Using a variant on the standard Toll-Based Road Assignment, which includes manually-calculated transit background traffic.
Key parameters:
Peak/Representative Hour Factor
Toll Perception
Link Cost
Toll Cost

12. Auto Assignment Results: Peak Hour Factors

13. Auto Assignment Results: Representative Hour Factors

14. Auto Assignment: Toll Perception Factor

15. Auto Assignment: Toll Perception Factor

16. Transit Assignment
Using Emme 4’s Congested Transit Assignment tool (a translation of captras.mac).
GO Rail is included as part of a blended assignment (no line-haul assignment required).
Model headways are based on actual headways, so a line with one trip in the AM will have a headway of
Using XTMF’s built-in estimation framework & Genetic Algorithm to estimate parameters.
Relevant parameters:
Wait time, walk time, and congestion perception factors
Peak/representative hour factor
Boarding penalties by operators & mode

17. Transit Assignment: Genetic Algorithm Convergance

18. Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM)
Top 3 Genomes
RANK
Truth 1 2 3
FITNESS -
736.9
745.7
747.0
Subway
393,888
398,402 1%
396,446
401,800 2%
Streetcar
57,953
50,699
-13%
51,728
-11%
49,819
-14%
TTC Bus
327,620
304,259
-7%
322,707
-1%
314,174
-4%
GO Train
101,104
101,827
102,504
96,477
-5%
GO Bus
17,809
20,426
15%
18,723 5%
19,676
10%
Mississauga
39,007
45,937
18%
41,423 6%
41,998 8%
Hamilton
23,708
19,633
-17%
17,843
-25%
18,323
-23%
Brampton
18,965
16,875
18,085
18,390
-3%
YRT
17,709
14,240
-20%
16,375
-8%
17,524
VIVA
8,734
10,045
10,399
19%
7,656
-12%
Durham
10,504
8,800
-16%
9,095
8,571
-18%
Halton
7,278
8,304
14%
7,980
6,468
TOTAL
1,015,544
989,403
1,002,910
993,219
-2%
Top 20 Genomes
Mean
Std.Dev 1%
-13% 6%
-3% 2% 0%
11%
14%
10% 8%
-23% 3% 5%
13%
-17%
16% 4%
19%
15%
-2%

19. Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM)
Top 3 Genomes
Parameter 1 2 3
Congestion Perception
0.5000
Wait Perception
1.4857
1.4875
Walk Perception
1.0000
GO Train Headway Fraction
0.2259
0.2000
0.3130
GO Train Boarding Penalty
4.9164
5.4343
GO Bus Boarding Penalty
8.2664
Streetcar (XROW) BP
4.0652
4.2155
Streetcar BP
6.5439
5.8591
6.6208
TTC Bus BP
3.1117
2.5740
2.9209
YRT (non-Viva) BP
7.0268
5.1296
Viva BP
0.0000
4.1100
Brampton (incl. Zum) BP
8.2255
7.3371
7.2297
Mississauga BP
1.9727
2.9961
Durham BP
4.6496
4.4466
5.4410
Halton BP
0.6300
1.5318
6.2741
Hamilton BP
6.1490
9.0084
Top 20 Genomes
Mean
Std.Dev
0.4231
13%
1.5985
12%
1.0204 4%
0.2162
5.9662
20%
8.9054
4.5053
6.5207 9%
2.7838 8%
6.9455
35%
2.1239
125%
5.7849
39%
2.5661
41%
4.1804
47%
4.2087
78%
9.1102
14%
← Normalized

20. Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM)
SC XROW BP vs. SC BP
VIVA BP vs YRT BP

21. Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM)
ZUM BP vs Brampton BP
Walk Time Perception vs. Wait Time Perception

22. Workplan
Draft Workplan for submission to Steering Committee

23. Brainstorming (based on Scoping from Terms of reference)
Continue work on GTAModel V4
Future year base networks
V4 model improvements and extensions
Active transportation modelling
Infrastructure for sharing common modelling data
Fare-based transit assignment
HOV lane modelling
XTMF / TMG Toolbox / GTAModel V4 training sessions
Transit speed updating
Ongoing software development
Review/analysis of VDFs & capacity
Left turn delays
Freight modelling

24. Thank You!
Next Meeting: Wednesday, May 7, 2014

25. PHF = 0.55
PHF = 0.55

26. PHF = 0.45
PHF = 0.45

27. PHF = 0.38