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THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL PART 20A: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 15, 2014 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - PPT original - Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA
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FRAMEWORK 1 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
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1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
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A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.
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THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) COMMUNITIES RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
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PEOPLE = INNOVATION SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA
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INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
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THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
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LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: a continuum OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
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LIKE A CHAIN: a continuum HAs WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
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FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
IGNORANCE APATHY DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
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THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
GOVERNMENT DWELLINGS SCHOOLS HEALTH CARE FACILITIES BUSINESSES INFRA-STRUCTURE ETC
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EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
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THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM
FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ETC.
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RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
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RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
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RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
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RECURRING FLOODS
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RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
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CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
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FRAMEWORK 2 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
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POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
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YOUR COMMUNITY BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE FLOODS
SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES CAUSES COUNTER MEASURES YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION BEST POLICIES BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
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THE END GAME CHALLENGE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
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BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
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BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
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THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
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VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
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INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) WARNING SYSTEMS
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MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
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PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.
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AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.
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LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN
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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION) TECHNIQUE REAL TIME MONITORING ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO
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EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
PRECURSORS TO EXPECT LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
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COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
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LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE URBAN PLANNING EVACUATION TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
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EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN
11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.
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MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered. Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.
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MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE
Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.
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