1. Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration
Models and exercises
Copy folder “Hands-on Exercises” with the model templates to your computer

2. Projecting levels of mortality
Overview

3. Projecting levels of mortality
Mortality change (and fertility change) are processes where new behavior is gradually being adopted by people. It is similar to the processes of a new product penetrating a market. In other words: A diffusion process.
Diffusion processes are often modeled by a logistic function.

4. Projecting levels of mortality

5. Projecting levels of mortality
K=90

6. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

7. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

8. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

9. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

10. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm 1. Enter description 2. Enter your data
2. Select a model for each sex

11. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

12. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

13. Projecting level of mortality II: US Census Bureau Model
The model in spreadsheet E0LGST.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

14. E0LGST.xls Input data for E0LGST.xls Table number [“Table 123”]
Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”]
Lower asymptote [leave default]
Upper asymptote [leave default]
2-17 data points of observed life expectancy
Dates for life expectancy [Decimal years: for midyear]
Values for male, female life expectancy
Sex ratio at birth [male births per female births]
Start year for listing results
Sources of input data

15. E0LGST.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed life expectancies
3. Enter parameter
4. Retrieve projection (Automatic update)

16. E0LGST.xls

17. E0LGST.xls

18. Hands-on exercise: Mortality
Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates
E0LGST.xls [USBC]
UNPD_MorModel.xls/UNPD_MorModel.xlsm [UNPD]
Prepare a projection using a target level of life expectancy or a typical rate of change.
Validity check I: Sex-differentials in e0

19. Hands-on exercise: Mortality
Validity check II: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

20. Projecting levels of fertility
Overview

21. Projecting levels of fertility I: United Nation Model
Applies a similar model as for mortality.
Not the level itself, but the rates of changes are modeled
Incorporates the observation that during the demographic transition, fertility first changed slowly, then accelerated and finally decelerated

22. UNPD_FerModel.xls
1. Enter description
2. Enter data
3. Select a model

23. UNPD_FerModel.xls

24. Projecting level of fertility II: US Census Bureau Model
The model in spreadsheet TFRLGSTNew.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

25. TFRLGSTNew.xls Input data for TFRLGSTNew.xls
Table number [“Table 123”]
Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”]
Lower asymptote [leave default]
Upper asymptote [leave default]
2-17 data points of observed TFR
Reference dates for TFR [Decimal years: for midyear]
Values for TFR
Start year for listing results
Sources of input data

26. TFRLGSTNew.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed TFR
3. Enter parameter
4. Retrieve projection (Automatic update)

27. TFRLGST.xls

28. TFRLGSTNew.xls

29. Hands-on exercise: Fertility
Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates
TFRLGSTNew.xls [USBC]
UNPD_FerModel.xls/UNPD_FerModel.xlsm [UNPD]
Prepare a projection using a target level of Total Fertility or a typical rate of change.
Validity check I: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

30. Excursion: Test data
Spectrum comes with a complete database of national estimates and projections for all countries (WPP2010).
The data are formatted into time series for single years, and into single years of age.
How to obtain the data?

31. Spectrum: Step 1

32. Spectrum: Step 1

33. Spectrum: Step 1

34. Spectrum: Step 1

35. Spectrum: Step 1

36. Spectrum: Step 1

37. Spectrum: Step 1

38. Spectrum: Step 1 Copy to clipboard Paste into Excel
Transpose, if necessary