1. Weather Outlook 2016 & Beyond
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University

2. Corn/Soybean Market Market @9am 8 Jun 2016
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul '2 +2'4
Dec '4 +2'2
expect $ 2.90 to $3.50
ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul '6 +13'6
Nov '2 +12'4
expect $
8 Jun 2016

3. 173

5. SOI 8 Jun 2016 = -6.9 (-8 is full strength El Niño)
SOI 8 Jun 2016 = (-8 is full strength El Niño)

6. High risk Moderate High
Beyond
High risk Moderate High

7. El Niño Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).

8. Moderate El Niño Strong La Niña

9. Summer Temperature 2010
This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years

10. La Niña : Extremes

11. La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.

12. (Oct to date) October 2009 El Niño To La Niña October 2010 to 2012
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
El Niño To
La Niña
October 2010
to 2012 .

13. Return to El Niño

15. Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during the next 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance

17. Beyond

18. A Little on the USA: Continental Divide Anomaly

19. Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change

20. END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist
On Google: Where is elwynn

21. http://www. noaanews. noaa
Global Warming

22. http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west- lafayette/united-states/usin0707

23. http://mesonet. agron. iastate. edu/plotting/auto/
work=INCLIMATE&station=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100

25. 1994 Record high Yield 1995 decimated Yield

26. mygeohub.org/groups/u2 u/acv

29. US Corn
as of
Wisner
195 81
146
159 $4.20
178
162.3
165½ $3.70
170 $3.60 *
* Central. IA $3.10
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”

30. as of
US Soybean
Wisner 23 59 40
41 $9.45 50 45
45 $8.50
46 $8.25 *
* Central. IA $7.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”