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TIME PLACE New E&P Contract COLOMBIA Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos
ANH New E&P Contract COLOMBIA THIS IS THE TIME AND THE PLACE Julian García Technical Director Dallas, April 19th 2004 Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
Threefold strategy New institutional structure New contract Improved business environment COLOMBIA THIS IS THE TIME AND THE PLACE Colombia: This is the time and the place
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New Institutional Structure
ECOPETROL S.A. Entrepreneur ANH Resource Administrator New Contract ECOPETROL Entrepreneur + Regulator Association Contract Colombia: This is the time and the place
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New Contract Basic Characteristics
Type of contract Duration Work Programs Operations Economic Terms Royalty / Tax system 100% WI to contractor through contract life Exploration 6 yrs yrs extension Evaluation 1-2 yrs yrs extension Exploitation 24 yrs yrs extension, per field Automatic extensions on fulfilment of pre-established conditions Responsabilidad, Costos y Riesgos Exploration Minimum program, per phase, adjustable Evaluation At contractor´s discretion Exploitation Plan accepted by ANH, with updates Annual work programs Autonomy and flexibility to the contractor Follow up by ANH 100% production to the contractor, after royalty payment Sliding scale royalty + Tax Eventual payment of 30% of surplus income over trigger price of around US$ 27/bbl WTI Natural gas and heavy oil have no payment and other incentives Assets belong to contractor Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
Economic Terms (mboed) % production 10% 5 125 400 20% 12% 16% 8% 4.8% Discount Production Light crude Gas Onshore Heavy Oil Gas Offshore (>1000 ft) - - 20% - 25% - 40% 600 Per field Sliding scale royalty 30% of surplus income over trigger price As a % of actual field value Trigger price Around US$ 27/bbl WTI Adjusted with oil industry evolution Payment to ANH contingent to high prices and only for light crude Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
International Competitiveness 60% 40% Colombia New Model United Kingdom 50% Pakistan 50% Peru 40% Argentina 60% Ecuador Brasil India State Take Kazahistan Contractor Take (1 - State Take) 30% Australia 70% Trinidad & Tob. Colombia Previous model Thailand Sudan 20% 80% China Angola Turkemistan Gabon Bolivia 10% Norway 90% Malaysia Indonesia Egypt Venezuela 0% 100% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Profitability Source: PEPS-USGS and calculations ANH Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
Advantages Type of contract Duration Work Programs and Operations Economic Terms Top quartile Full materiality, 100% of prize to exploration risk No need to commit in advance re. cost oil, reserves, or profitability Time enough to discover, to make it feasible and to realize the reward Standard or better than industry Evaluation: grace period to make feasible any discovery Exploitation period per individual discovery / field Extensions w/o negotiations Autonomy and flexibility Right to monetize discoveries Non intrusive follow up – easy contract administration Stake take (50%) and profitability Robustness, lower downside - higher upside potential 100% cost effectiveness / incentive (before tax) Simplicity – easy mathematics, known crude marker, no cost control Incentives for gas and heavy oil Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
Business Environment GDP growth (from avg. 2.5% last 10 years to ca 4%) Unemployment rate (from 18% in 2001 to current 15%) Fiscal deficit ( from -5% to -2.5% of GDP) Foreign investment +25% Stock Exchange Index +100% last 12 months External debt : sustained at 50% GDP Country risk rate: spread from to < 300 basic points President Uribe´s popularity rating 70% Democratic and Social Security Policy Financing sources + number of rebel forces weakened Coca illegal crops from (2000) to ca has. today Around rebels demobilized Defense Spending increased from 2% early 90s to 5% of GDP Attacks against infrastructure - 30% Attacks against towns - 83% Illegal road blocks –60% Kidnapping –28% Colombia´s Turnaround Sustained improvement of all socio-economic indicators Dramatic turnaround of the trend of security and drugs The basis Long and relativelly rich oil industry – proved basin Exciting exploration open to unkown potential e.g. 5 giant discoveries, many skilled professionals, km. pipelines Relatively un-explored country Geological modelling: more questions unresolved than answered Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Conclusions New institutional structure
Ecopetrol as entrepreneur – ANH as resource administrator New top quartile contract R/T system Time enough to discover, make it feasible and realize the reward Autonomy and flexibility for work programs and operations Top quartile economic terms Simple Business environment turnaround Sustained improvement of all socio-economic indicators Dramatic turnaround of the trend of security and drugs Long and relatively rich oil industry – proved basin Exciting exploration open to unkown potential Colombia: This is the time and the place Colombia: This is the time and the place
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Colombia: This is the time and the place
Thank you ! Colombia: This is the time and the place
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