1. Energy Sector Stock Presentation
Dan Geisler
Olga Boder(Firdman)
Fall 2009

2. Agenda S&P 500 Energy Sector SIM energy holdings
% of index
top market cap
top performers
Top Movers
industries within sector
SIM energy holdings
what companies and industries
percent of portfolio
performance
Sector/industry outlook
Oil supply/demand
Oil price forecast
Regression against stocks/sector
Valuation
Industries in SIM
sector as a whole
potential attractive industries
Recommendation

3. S&P Sector Breakdown

4. S&P 500 Top Market Cap No Stock % Weight in the Index Um % 1 1 
 ExxonMobil
3.77 2 
 Microsoft
2.36
6.13 3 
 Procter & Gamble
1.86
7.99 4 
 Apple
1.85
9.84 5 
 JPMorgan Chase
1.80
11.64 6 
 Johnson & Johnson
1.78
13.42 7 
 IBM
1.73
15.15 8 
 Chevron
1.68
16.84 9 
 General Electric
1.66
18.50
10 
 AT&T
20.16

5. S&P 500 Top Performers Ticker Name Sector YTD Return %
S&P 500 Best Returns YTD 2009
(NYSE:THC)
TENET HEALTHCARE CORP
Health
373.04%
(NYSE:XL)
XL CAPITAL LTD
Financials
363.78%
(NYSE:GNW)
GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC A
319.44%
(NYSE:F) 
FORD MOTOR CO
Consumer Durable
218.34%
(NYSE:WDC)
WESTERN DIGITAL CORP
Technology
207.34%
(NYSE:MU) 
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
206.82%
(NASDAQ:WFMI) 
WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC
Consumer Services
204.77%
(NASDAQ:EXPE) 
EXPEDIA INC
Transportation
184.83%
(NYSE:FCX)
FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G
Basic Material
172.87%
(NYSE:AMD) 
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES
169.91%

6. Energy and S&P 500

7. S&P 500 Energy Sector As of November 2 2009 Close : 424.18
Net Change: 1.96
% Change: 0.46
Year to_Date: 9.79

8. Top Movers Gainers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap
Encore Acquisition Co.
EAC
44.67
+7.60 (20.50%)
2.36B
Harvest Natural Resources
HNR
5.73
+0.24 (4.37%)
190.07M
Stone Energy Corporation
SGY
15.95
+0.62 (4.04%)
766.14M
Comstock Resources, Inc.
CRK
42.72
+1.63 (3.97%)
1.99B
Intl. Coal Group, Inc.
ICO
4.25
+0.16 (3.91%)
655.15M

9. Top Movers Losers (% price change) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap
Denbury Resources Inc.
DNR
13.09
-1.51 (-10.34%)
3.27B
Global Partners LP
GLP
22.2
-2.01 (-8.31%)
295.28M
Rosetta Resources Inc.
ROSE
12.65
-0.88 (-6.50%)
662.30M
Bronco Drilling Co., Inc.
BRNC
5.91
-0.41 (-6.49%)
160.86M
Hercules Offshore, Inc.
HERO
4.8
-0.33 (-6.43%)
544.00M

10. Top Movers Most Actives (dollar volume) Last Trade Change Mkt Cap
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
72.15
+0.48 (0.67%)
342.50B
Chevron Corporation
CVX
76.64
+0.10 (0.13%)
153.70B
Petroleo Brasileiro SA
PBR
46.71
+0.49 (1.06%)
204.92B
Occidental Petroleum Corp
OXY
76.82
+0.94 (1.24%)
62.28B
ConocoPhillips
COP
49.98
-0.20 (-0.40%)
74.12B

11. S& P 500 Industries Within Energy Sector
Index Value
% of 500 or Sector
Price Changes (%)
5-Year
1 Wk.
YTD
2008
5-Yr CAGR
Beta
Std. Dev.
Coal & Consumable Fuels
89.52
1.93%
3.30%
85.20%
-64.20%
N/A
Integrated Oil & Gas
424.69
59.02%
5.10%
0.30%
-23.50%
8.80%
0.7
20.7
Oil & Gas Drilling
531.17
1.96%
75.00%
-62.00%
10.50%
1.3
33.8
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
445.8
14.61%
7.80%
67.30%
-59.50%
11.70%
1.4
35.3
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
482.39
18.32%
3.50%
42.10%
-35.00%
18.30%
1.1 31
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
189.55
1.43%
4.30%
-10.70%
-64.70%
-4.80%
1.2 39
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
107.94
2.73%
3.90%
34.90%
-51.60%
Energy Sector
446.72
12.35%
3.80%
15.60%
-35.90%
9.90%
0.9
23.3

12. SIM and S&P 500

13. SIM Companies and Industries
Quantity
Security
Ticker
Industry
14,700
BP plc. - ADR BP
Major Integrated Oil & Gas
12,300
ConocoPhillips Co.
COP
10,200
Transocean Ltd.
RIG
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration

14. SIM Percent of Portfolio

15. Industry Current Prices: Oil: $79.50 BP: $57.55 COP: $50.75
RIG: $85.91

20. Crude Oil vs. Sector Performance

21. Regression Analysis

23. Valuation Ratios COP Absolute High Low Median Current P/Trailing E
13.6
3.5
7.6
P/Forward E
11.3
5.3
8.0
8.9
P/B
2.3
0.8
1.5
1.3
Overvalued by >20%
P/S
0.9
0.2
0.6
Inline within 20%
P/CF
8.2
5.2
5.1
Undervalued by >20%
BP Absolute
16.0
4.5
10.7
13.4
13.8
4.7
10.3
10.5
3.3
1.4
2.6
1.8
1.1
0.3
9.7
7.1
RIG Absolute
160.8
3.4
25.2
6.4
49.0
3.1
12.1
2.8
9.4
6.8
2.2
33.8
18.4

24. Valuation Ratios (cont.)
Energy Absolute
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
14.9
6.1
11.7
12.1
P/Forward E
16.2
7.8
11.5
15.4
P/B
3.8
1.4
3.0
2.1
Overvalued by >20%
P/S
0.5
1.1
1.0
Inline within 20%
P/CF
9.4
4.1
7.3
5.4
Undervalued by >20%
Energy Relative to S&P 500
0.88
0.53
0.70
0.68
1.20
0.57
0.74
0.91
1.40
0.80
1.10
1.00
Overvalued by >10%
0.60
0.9
Inline within 10%
0.90
0.50
Undervalued by >10%
Oil Drilling Relative to S&P 500
3.70
0.28
0.98
0.41
2.00
0.79
1.70
4.30
2.90
1.80
0.40

25. Valuation Ratios (cont.)
Oil Integrated Relative to S&P 500
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
0.79
0.51
0.61
0.64
P/Forward E
1.20
0.46
0.68
0.78
P/B
1.40
0.90
1.00
Overvalued by >10%
P/S
0.80
0.50
0.60
Inline within 10%
P/CF
Undervalued by >10%
Oil Exploration Relative to S&P 500
1.10
0.55
0.70
1.90
0.73
1.30
3.50
1.50
2.20
2.50
0.40
Oil Equipment Relative to S&P 500
0.58
0.77
1.70
2.80
2.00
1.80
1.60

26. Valuation Ratios (cont.)
Oil Refining Relative to S&P 500
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
1.00
0.23
0.50
0.31
P/Forward E
3.90
0.39
0.55
P/B
1.30
0.30
0.80
Overvalued by >10%
P/S
0.10
0.20
Inline within 10%
P/CF
0.70
Undervalued by >10%
Coal Relative to S&P 500
23.30
1.40
0.74
2.10
0.95
1.20
1.90
1.10
4.00
0.90
Price/Oil
Energy Sector
10.1
4.1
6.3
5.9
BP (BP)
1.3
0.5
1.1
0.8
Overvalued by >20%
ConocoPhillips (COP)
1.4
0.6
1.0
0.7
Inline within 20%
Transocean (RIG)
1.6
1.2
Undervalued by >20%

27. Recommendation Hold the overall % for the sector.
Hold Transocean Ltd. since it’s a buy right now.
Reduce the % of BP plc. – ADR and ConocoPhillips Co.
Diversify our energy sector by purchasing a stock with an exposure to a non-oil energy type, like natural gas companies.
Possible purchases: Chesapeake Energy the largest producers of natural gas in the nation.
Chesapeake Energy the largest producers of natural gas in the nation and the most active driller of new wells in the U.S.  Headquartered in Oklahoma City, their strategy is focused on discovering, acquiring and developing conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the U.S., primarily in the "Big 4" natural gas shale plays: the Barnett Shale of north-central Texas, the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and northwestern Louisiana, the Fayetteville Shale of central Arkansas and the Marcellus Shale of the northern Appalachian Basin. They have substantial operations in various other plays, both conventional and unconventional in the Mid-Continent, Appalachian Basin, Permian Basin, Delaware Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast and East Texas regions of the U.S.

28. Questions?