1. Red River of the North 1997
$2 Billion damages
60,000 people evacuated
Grand Forks and
East Grand Forks

2. Blizzards Over 100 inches of snow 300% of normal
Fast melt in mid April

3. Hell and High Water
Flood waters caused fires to destroy downtown buildings.

4. What I’ve Learned Build relationships.
Once trust is compromised it is hard to reestablish.
Customers expect and want more than science (meteorology, hydrology, and climatology) can provide.

5. What I’ve Learned People listen to what is relevant to them
People filter information to match their understanding and expectations
Historical Crests (1) ft on 04/22/1997 (2) ft on 04/10/1897 (3) ft on 04/26/1979 (4) ft on 04/18/1882 (5) ft on 04/06/2006 (6) ft on 04/16/2006 (7) ft on 04/21/1996 (8) ft on 04/11/1978 (9) ft on 04/16/1969 (10) ft on 05/12/1950

6. Hope
Just like the rain prophets, it was like the NWS was supposed to be providing HOPE to the Grand Forks and East Grand Forks community.

7. Anger
“anger was most famously expressed by a local resident's devastated home having the words "49 feet my ass" smeared on the exterior”

8. Pet Issues
Forecasters must be clear about limitations and capabilities of forecasts.
Ineffective communications occur when we make assumptions about what people know.
Forecaster EGO
To compensate for our own uncertainty we over-state forecast capabilities

9. Pet Issues
Probabilities preserve scientific validity but are not well understood

10. Priorities: Customer Satisfaction Expanded Outreach/Training
New types of easy to use information
Consistent access to information
Specific, accurate, and timely information with longer forecast horizons
10.5 feet Critical Low Flow level – dredging may be required to sustain navigation
Priorities:
Customer Satisfaction…
Service Improvement – Flood to Drought – Identifying Customer Needs through open dialogue, Customer Satisfaction, Value of Hydrology Decision Support Information, NWS and Society
Expanded Customer Outreach and Training – TADD, Safety
Professional Development and Hydrology Science Training- Regional and Local Hydrology Program Management and Leadership. – NOAA Water Resources Program needs leaders who understand Hydrology Science and Service issues.
New types of easy to use information and Consistent access to information…
Hydrology Web Services – Phase V and VI, RSS, Integration and expansion of RFC web services, Inundation Mapping
Specific, accurate and timely information
Data Networks, Water Supply Forecasts, Long-term and Short-term Probability Graphics, Forecast Confidence Index.
Business training and Project Management
Utilizing the latest technologies, Management of Information Systems - Databases, Business Intelligence
GIS Support

11. Challenges Make scientific knowledge relevant and meaningful.
Clearly convey limitations of forecasts.
Learn what questions customers want answered.
Learn appropriate forms for presenting information.

12. Questions to discuss
What are the most effective ways to provide training to help customers understand scientific forecasts?
How can we remove barriers between customers and forecasters?
What type of information is meaningful to customers?
What will motivate forecasters to learn new communication methods?