1. Muhammad AS Hikam (President University & Kiroyan Partners)
THE JAKARTA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION & ITS REPERCUSSIONS ON THE 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Muhammad AS Hikam
(President University
& Kiroyan Partners)

2. Outline Highlights The Jakarta Gub Election: The Noisy First Round.
The Runoff: Who will Prevail?
Toward 2019 Presidential Eelections: Some Repercussions.
Conclusion.

3. Highlights
It might be one of the noisiest and a rather bizarre elections, but highly attractive to both national public interests (hence the label “Pilkada Rasa Pilpres”) and international spectators
The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election as one of national barometers: a political climate reference for other regions.
Two most important political problems: High polarization of society and a possible threat to pluralism.
The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election could have some repercussions on the next Presidential Election in But to what extent?
The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election poses an important political test for Mr. Joko Widodo’s (PJ) leadership & reelection in 2019.

4. The Contenders

5. Electability & Satisfaction Index
Poll tracing (15 September 2016) : 68.72% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance.
SMRC (20 Oktober 2016) : 75% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance.
LSI (15 Desember 2016) : 75% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance.

6. Mass Consolidation and Propaganda
Mass Mobilization
SARA
Al Maida 51
4 November 2016
2 December 2016
11 February 2017
21 February 2017
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s
Electability Problem

7. Factors Determining Ahok-Djarot’s Rebound
Managing religious blasphemy issue
Prevailing in the public debates
Escaping from SBY political maneuvers

8. Results of the 1st Round of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections
KPU DKI

9. Political Map of the Runoff Electionvs
PDIP, Nasdem, Hanura, Golkar ?
Gerindra, PKS, PPP, PAN
Demokrat, PKB

10. Ahok-Djarot’s Vulnerabilities
Legal battle of Religious Blasphemy Case: Is he going to prevail or lose?
Communications’ Style :
Is he going to transform it to be less confrontational & more “civil”?
Vulnerable to attacks on SARA issues: How will he convince to sceptical Moslem voters and golputers.

11. Ahok-Djarot’s Campaign Strategies
More political exposures (both the Jakarta and National level) : Meeting w/ King Salman; keeping close contacts with PJ
More grass-roots appeals:
Visiting the grave of Mbah Priok; the silent ‘blusukan’; the meetings w/ blue and orange troops; Kalijodo and other community parks
Lobbying AHY supporters:
Jokowi’s Meeting with SBY; communicating with PD and PKB

12. Ahok-Djarot Voting Expansions
Non-Muslim
Voters
Middle to Upper Educational Level
Middle to Upper Economic Level
Muslim Voters
Lower Educational Level
Lower Economic Level + -
Demonstrating and convincing them on the success of programs already executed in Jakarta.
Erasing doubts in people minds about religious blasphemy or anti-Moslems.
Approaching the lower ranks of the community using blusukan, and silent campaigns to the grass-roots groups.

13. Anies-Sandi’s Vulnerabilities
Promised programs are still vague and controversial
(0% DP housing, Rp 3 Milyar/RW subsidies)
Closeness with sectarian and hardliner groups and figures
(visiting FPI hq; soft on the issue of fundementalizm)
Public images: - Anies as a flip flop leader.
-Sandi’s legal issues
-Anies lack of real achievements

14. Anies-Sandy’s Campaign Strategies
Approaching Agus-Sylvi’s supporters and adopting some of the programs of the AHY.
Improving work programs.
Utilizing the Religious issues to weaken Ahok’s eelectability

15. Anies-Sandi Voting Expansions
Non-Muslim Voters
Middle to Upper Educational Level
Middle to Upper Economic Level
Muslim Voters
Lower Educational Level
Lower Economic Level - +
Improving work programs.
Showing pluralistic attitude.
Not bragging about programs that may threaten investment and business climate.
Campaigning pro-public programs (housing, education, health).
Capitalizing Religious issues and identity to create negative sentiment against the opposite camp.

16. Early Predictions

17. Threats & Vulnerabilities of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election
KPUD’s Neutrality?
Triggering Conflicts
Uncertainty
Political Polarizations
Horizontal Conflicts
Threat to Pluralism

18. Threats and Vulnerabilities (contd.)
Wait & See
Lost Time
Political Cost
Uncertain Direction of Policies
ECONOMY AND BUSINESS
Hardliner and Intolerant Groups
Religious Blasphemy Issue
Mobocracy

19. Who wins?: Implications to Economy and Business
Relatively little changes in public policies.
Bureaucracy is simpler and more transparent.
Politics might be heated with strong resistance from the hardliners using sectarian issues.
Policy and management style of Jakarta will change.
Programs like the Housing with 0% DP and the Pro-SME projects will cause major business challenges.

20. Toward 2019: Political warming up?

21. Repercussions of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election on the Presidential Election 2019
Coalitions of supporting parties in the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election is not linear with coalitions at the Central level
Ideological sentiments currently seems strong in Jakarta – Yet, in other regions, Islam-based parties actually support non-muslim candidates
The total number of Jakarta residents is a mere 4.06 % of the total number of Indonesian residents
Electing Indonesia’s president remains highly affected by ethnic background: there is a high tendency to elect a President from the predominant (41,6%) Javanese ethnic group.

22. Joko Widodo
Incumbency
Of Javanese descent
Better party coalition
Relatively free from past cases / issues

23. Prabowo Subianto
Challenger
Limited party coalition
Record of past cases

24. Other Possible Contenders in 2019

25. By Way of Conclusion
The “riotous” nature of the 2017 Jakarta Gub. election has contributed to uncertainties, chief among them is in the realms of economic and business affairs.
Political instabilities could threaten pluralism and open the door for those hardliners and sectarian groups to advance their political interests.
The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election reflects the basis of powers that most probably would fight in the 2019 Presidential Elections.
However, the winner of the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election does not necessarily determine the chance of winning 2019 Presidential Elections.
Regardless of the winner in the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election, PJ has remained one of the strongest contenders for the Presidential Election in 2019.