1. 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM
II. Horizon Scanning
Identifying Salient Ocean and Coastal Science in California
Hayley Carter California Ocean Science Trust
Jenn Eckerle
Ocean Protection Council

2. Goals
11:00 AM – 12:30 PM
Accelerate science integration. Start a conversation on how to provide science advice to the State on decision-relevant ocean research as it’s emerging
Discuss structure and function of a horizon scan. Illuminate ways to think about horizon scanning and prioritization criteria
Discuss options for prioritization (e.g., high risk, persistent vs. episodic, low/high uncertainty, high impacts, lack of scientific understanding, etc.)
Explore an initial list. OST to share summary of SAT survey responses, key priority issue areas.
Start to think about how we can keep OPC up to date on decision-relevant research and emerging topics so the state can focus on prioritizing science needs that will make the most progress for the things we care about.
We hope that this exercise can help the SAT become a venue to track and communicate new knowledge on issues as they emerge.
This can also help OST do a better job at tracking the academic community on the State’s behalf.
We hope to discuss ways to prioritize science that can help the state anticipate impacts and adapt to those anticipated changes. Not just about ID’ing problems. What are science needs to ID problems that can be solved?

3. Request from OPC 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM The Need Next Steps Deliverable
OPC-SAT has been asked to ID emerging ocean and coastal science issues that CA should prioritize in near- and longer-term
Inform needs w/in OPC’s current program areas, next 5-year strategic plan and beyond
Next Steps
ID alignment with State agency science needs
Deliverable
Science Advisor presentation at August OPC Meeting
Brief report that summarizes highest priority ocean and coastal science needs
First step – we’re putting together presentation on your thinking on this. From there, we hope to think about how we organize this into a living list.
We’d love to be able to turn this into an organized/prioritized database or list that is living that gives them insight on how scientific community is moving on key emerging issues that an be revisited.
Following the workshop today, we’ll work with OPC to identify how decision-makers react to what you presented, and understand how this aligns with existing state needs.

4. THINGS WE NEED ANSWERS TO
THINGS WE KNOW
The survey results we’re going to show are just a snapshot in time, but it is very likely that the high level issue areas wont change much.
It’s the details within these topics, and where we are with the science that will be different in 5 – 10 years. If we are able to tackle the most pressing knowledge gaps that inhibit a decision from being made, we can help increase the management and policy opportunities available to us.
(but more science might not = more answers)
Credit: F. Chan

5. SAT Member Survey Horizon scanning
SAT members asked to provide up to 5 science questions or challenges CA should prioritize in both near- & longer-term
n=16 of 26 respondents
56 total contributions (varying levels of granularity)
Coded for an initial (quick) analysis
Sorted into high level issues, sub-issues, and specific questions
e.g., Issue = climate & ocean change, sub-issue = ocean acidification, specific Q = What are the effects of ocean acidification on coastal food webs?

6. Survey Summary: Top Issue Areas
Horizon scanning

7. Survey Summary: Climate and Ocean Change
Horizon scanning

8. Survey Summary: Top Issue Areas
Horizon scanning

9. Survey Summary: “Other” Issues
Horizon scanning
Issue area
Frequency
Seafloor mapping 1
Artificial reefs
Permitting and Regulatory Streamlining
Dam removal
Underwater acoustics
Offshore renewable energy
Marine spatial planning
Earthquake/tsunami
Science funding / capacity
Sediment management
Industrial ocean uses

10. Case Example: Ocean acidification
Horizon scanning
Consideration
Scientific understanding
Issue
uncertain
Certain
Impacts
Potential risk to CA
low
High
Onset of impacts
Near-term
Longer-term
Geographic scope
Regional
Global
Nature of issue
Episodic
Persistent
Let’s take a few case study examples to see where we’re at with the science on a given issue, and characteristics of an issue that we may want to consider in a prioritization process.
The idea here is not to dig into where these balls should be on the sliding scale, but use this as an example for the purpose of initiating discussion and framing an issue. This is coarse!

11. Case study: Ocean acidification
Horizon scanning
Current Opportunities:
Advance field and lab studies to ID tipping points
ID water quality thresholds
Understand food web effects for fisheries management
Advance physiological studies
Understand local drivers (e.g., terrestrial nutrients)
Help aquaculture industry adapt
These are the current opportunities for OA based on survey results for SAT members who listed OA as a priority issue area.
OA appears to be more on the “need more science before major actions can be taken” type of issue.
Yes, there are things we can do (and are doing) now, as laid out by the West Coast Panel, but we’re not at the point of curbing fisheries catches, or setting water quality standards yet (for example) due to the threat of OA. This does not mean that there are not management and policy options out there, or lack of political interest. We just don’t have the same level of scientific understanding to be able to take some of these actions yet.
Current management/policy action
Options available
Low
High
Fewer
Many

12. Case Example: Sea level rise
Consideration
Scientific understanding
Issue
uncertain
Certain
Impacts
Potential risk to CA
low
High
Onset of impacts
Near-term
Longer-term
Geographic scope
Regional
Global
Nature of issue
Episodic
Persistent
As another example, let’s take sea level rise. We can predict with a high level of certainty that infrastructure in California will face impacts, but less certain about when and where those impacts will manifest most.

13. Case study: Sea level rise
Current Opportunities:
Begin planning and responding
Beach nourishment, managed retreat, and coastal armoring
Explore coastal armoring designs that minimize ecological impacts
Complete statewide modeling of coastal flooding, shoreline change from SLR/storms
Comprehensive and consistent data on offshore sediment resources
Explore wetland migration options, tidal wetland restoration
ID priority infrastructure and natural features to protect
These are the current opportunities for OA based on survey results for SAT members who listed SLR / coastal erosion / flooding as a priority issue area.
SLR compared to OA is more on the “how do we implement SLR adaptation in CA” side of things. There are many options out there. The science is at the stage of helping to ID what the best options are.
Current management/policy action
Options available
Low
High
Fewer
Many

14. Aligning with State Needs: Emerging Priorities
Horizon scanning
Aquaculture
Impacts on eelgrass beds
Impacts to ocean ecosystems from finfish facilities offshore
BMPs that would reduce impacts (esp. marine debris)
Artificial reefs
Kelp restoration
Offshore renewables
Sediment management
Fisheries
Fishing community resilience
Bycatch analysis
Oil/natural seeps
Immediate next step – let’s shape the initial list. We’ll take that and look to decision-making and bound that in some way. We’ll need to focus and filter this through a decision-maker lens. Our next step is understanding from decision-makers how they consider emerging issue.
Initial contributions from:
California State Lands Commission
Fish and Game Commission
California Department of Fish and Wildlife

15. Survey Summary: Top Issue Areas
Horizon scanning

16. Discussion Horizon scanning
What are ways that CA should seek to prioritize science needs (across and within issues)?
Is this what the SAT envisions as a science horizon scan?
How does this live on? How do we want to revisit it?
What time scales should be considered?
Developing a prioritized list - Is anything missing?
See handout for full list
Science is shifting – may not have an impact – new science informing new projects and probabilities.
The science of uncertainty.