1. Houston’s Labor Market
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Houston’s Labor Market
By Firstname Lastname

2. Houston Labor Market Overview
Economy
Population
The structure of Houston’s labor market
Drivers of recent job growth and losses
Short-term outlook for job growth
Long-term outlook for job growth

3. Houston - Fourth Largest Economy
2014 Gross Domestic Product of Billion
31st Largest economy if it were a country
Houston is the 4th largest economy in the U.S. with a GDP of billion in 2014.
If it were a nation it would rank the 31st in the world, larger than Norway, Venezuela, and Columbia to name a few.
The economy, long dominated by oil and gas exploration and production, continues to become increasingly diversified.
Home to the largest medical center in the world.
Its central southern location with easy access to the Port of Houston makes it an ideal distribution point ranking 1st in the nation for U.S. foreign tonnage presenting opportunities for numerous maritime, railroad, airline, and motor freight companies.
With living costs some 19 percent below the average for major metropolitan areas it ranked number one in the number of housing starts in the U.S in 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

4. Leads the Nation in Population Growth
Home to Houston MSA
2015 Population 6.7 Million
Leads the Nation in Population Growth
Adding 159,000 Residents
July 2014 to July 2015
4 Texas Metro Areas Lead Pop. Gains among Top 20
#1 Houston
#2 Dallas
#14 Austin
#15 San Antonio
Houston MSA
4th Largest U.S. City
5th Largest U.S. Metro Area
Population as of July 2015:
6.7 million
+709,000 Residents
July 2010 to July 2015
Houston leads the U.S. in population gains adding nearly 160,000 residents between 2014 and 2015.

5. Makeup of Houston’s Economy
3 million jobs total as of June 2016
3 Major Sectors with Jobs Related to Oil & Gas
26% of Total Emp.
Houston is home to some 3 million jobs, with approximately 26% of them closely related to oil and gas.

6. Strong Job Growth Until 2015
H-W-S MSA
Most Recent Peak 4.6%
February 2013
4 Texas Metro Areas Lead Pop. Gains among Top 20
#1 Houston
#2 Dallas
#14 Austin
#15 San Antonio
Houston MSA
4th Largest U.S. City
5th Largest U.S. Metro Area
Population as of July 2015:
6.7 million
+159,000 Residents
July 2014 to July 2015
Crude Prices
Crash!
The pace of job growth in Houston began a rapid decline by early 2015 with the number of jobs up a mere 0.2 percent by June.

7. Houston vs U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Growth Since Recession
But, comparing current job levels to pre-recession highs we find that Houston continues to outpace the nation with the number of jobs up 13.0% over its pre-recession high compared to the nation’s 4.1%.

8. What’s driving Houston’s job growth and losses?

9. Drivers of Houston’s Job Growth
Houston added 54,400 jobs over the past year
38.4% from Leisure and Hospitality
34.4% from Educational and Health Services
15.1% from Government
Houston lost 49,200 jobs over the past year
31.5% from Professional and Business Services
30.9% from Manufacturing
27.6% from Mining and Logging
54,400 – 49,200 = Net Gain of 5,200 jobs

10. Change in Jobs by Industry 2015-2016
Consumer and Population Driven Job Growth
Virtually all of the most recent job growth has been tied to our regions rapid population growth.

11. Energy Losses are Accumulating Mining and Logging
Energy Losses are Accumulating Mining and Logging ,300 Durable Goods Manufacturing 33,500 Professional and Business Services ,400 Total ,200
Since crude oil prices have collapsed we have lost some 76,000 energy related jobs.

12. Mining and Logging
Down 22.6% during current downturn compared to a 13.6% decline during the Great Recession.
The good news is that the rate of losses have been started to decline, down 7,600 jobs ytd as of June compared to a loss of 11,700 in 2015.

13. Durable Goods Manufacturing
Down 18.7% during current downturn compared to a 14.7% decline during the Great Recession.
Like Mining and Logging, the rate of losses have also declined considerably in durable goods mfg, down 6,600 jobs ytd as of June compared to a loss of 15,000 in 2015.

14. Professional and Business Services
11,100 of the jobs lost were in Architectural, Engineering and Related Services.

15. Labor Force and Unemployment
The rate of unemployment in the MSA has steadily increased surpassing the rate of unemployment at the national level in April, currently nearly one-half a percentage point higher than the U.S. and seven-tenths of a percentage point higher than one year earlier.
June 2016
May 2016
June 2015
Civilian Labor Force
3,285,288
3,264,176
3,257,658
Total Employed
3,105,339
3,106,896
3,100,165
Unemployed
179,949
157,280
157,493
Unemployment Rate
5.5%
4.8%%
4.8%

16. What does the near future hold?

17. Houston Jobs Forecast - 2016 and Beyond
Source: University of Houston - Institute for Regional Forecasting

18. What’s the long-term outlook?
2012 to 2022

19. 13-County Gulf Coast Region
+712,000 new jobs over
10-year period
2015 Average Annual Wages: $51,605
71,245 new job openings each year
141,000 total job openings each year
141,000 total job openings each year

20. Top 10 Industries Adding Most Jobs
6 of 10 industries projected to add the most jobs are driven by population growth. About 186,000 jobs.
3 of 10 have close ties to oil and gas exploration and production. About 79,500 jobs.

21. 2015 Average Annual Wages: $51,605
Population Growth Will Continue Regardless of Oil Prices!
Health Care
Repair and Service Companies
Restaurants
2015 Average Annual Wages: $51,605
141,000 total job openings each year
+712,000 new jobs over
10-year period
Education
Port Activity
(shipping, trucking, rail, warehousing, logistics)
While oil production has finally started to decline, there are a number of uncompleted wells ready to be completed that will slow the rate of decline prolonging low oil prices.
As a result, many place odds in favor of $40 a barrel in the near future with $60 possible sometimes in the next 3 years. But rest assured, oil pricing forecasts are quite unpredictable in todays market.
Basically, prices will need to come back to the $70 range to encourage healthy recovery and even at that price, some will return while others will not.
Luckily, population growth will continue regardless of oil prices driving growth in many sectors of the Houston economy.
Retail Trade
Petrochemicals
Personal Care
Construction