1. Connecting the dots: An Islands of Ageing Study
University of Newcastle Research Centre on Gender, Health and Ageing
17-18 July South-East Asian Conference on Ageing 2010
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Connecting the dots:
An Islands of Ageing Study
Paul Kowal, Julie Byles, Somnath Chatterji
Abstract Island countries and states are ageing just like mainland countries in the Asia-Pacific and around the world. While islands may be at different stages of the demographic and epidemiological transition - and possibly smaller in population size and land mass – understanding the similarities and differences between island dwellers and mainland counterparts in ageing processes and health status are complicated by a lack of comparable data on health levels, determinants and risks, disability and well-being.
Introduction
Objectives
Affiliations
- To examine the ageing process and adult health trends in island countries or states in their own right, in comparison to each other and to non-island countries. Some comparisons would allow a broader examination of health determinants and impacts – such as in Cuba and Viet Nam versus other political and social systems.
- To select a number of countries for comparative study on ageing and adult health.
- To partner with country teams, adapt well-validated survey instruments to island realities.
- To seek financial support for longitudinal research through an Islands of Ageing Study.
Island populations are ageing just like most of the mainland populations around the globe. How do people age in Zanzibar compared to their mainland Tanganyika counterparts – or Tasmania and Australia or Hawaii and the US? Does ageing look different in Cuba, Madagascar and Vanuatu? Oceania versus the Caribbean?
What are the health implications over the life course and does climate change and migration have a disproportionate impact on health and well-being of island dwellers?
A comparative longitudinal study on ageing and adult health would provide an evidence base to address the issues faced by ageing islander populations.
The University of Newcastle’s Research Centre on Gender, Health and Ageing (JB, PK), World Health Organization’s Multi-Country Studies unit (PK, SC).
Methods & Materials
Population estimates and projections compiled from the UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Health data were compiled from WHO's Global Burden of Disease 2004 Update We recognize the need for systematic and comparable data on health and well-being of ageing island dwellers, and invite interest and input from other interested researchers into furthering this research agenda.
Population
Population densities on most island countries have increased steadily since the 1950s and will continue to increase through Ageing, coupled with population growth and climate change issues, will have considerable impacts on the inter-personal aspects of health. Meanwhile, the total dependency ratios ((<15&65+)/(15-64)) will shift and start to increase across most countries in Oceania and the Caribbean
Dependency ratios,
Using the example of Oceania, we look at the differences in populations aged 60+ and 0-14 by region, sub-region and country for 2010 and 20 years from now in the table below.
Percentage population aged 60+ and 0-14 years, and Life Expectancy (LE) at age 60 (in years), 2010 & 2030
2010
2030
 Countries
% 60+
% 0-14
LE at 60
Oceania
15.4
24.2
22.9
21.0
21.4
24.5
Australia
19.5
18.9
24.1
26.5
17.5
26.0
New Zealand
18.2
20.2
23.2
26.3
17.9
25.1
Melanesia
4.9
38.1
8.1
30.5
17.3
Fiji
30.9
16.0
13.6
17.7
New Caledonia
11.5
20.1
19.1
19.8
22.2
Papua New Guinea
4.3
39.5
14.8
7.3
31.4
16.8
Solomon Islands
38.6
16.5
7.4
29.9
Vanuatu
5.4
38.2
8.6
30.2
19.2
Micronesia
30.3
18.4
13.8
Guam
10.9
27.4
19.4
18.7
21.3
Micronesia (Fed. States)
5.9
36.6
17.0
9.8
27.9
18.0
Polynesia
8.2
32.2
18.6
14.5
25.4
20.6
French Polynesia
9.0
25.9
Samoa
6.9
38.7
11.2
30.7
20.3
Tonga
37.4
11.1
29.2
19.6
Caribbean
12.0
21.1
21.9
22.3
Health
Population health is often measured through life expectancies. The table beside illustrates a considerable increase in life expectancy at age 60 years over the next two decades. Obesity, diabetes and other cardiovascular disease risks will contribute to an increasing health burden related to ageing and NCDs.
Summary
Data from ageing research is required to assess if the additional years of life lived are in good or poor health – and thereby estimate potential future contributions and burdens. Minimizing the ongoing contributions of older adults and underinvestment in health development are likely consequences of insufficient data. We highlight the need for systematic and comparable data on health and well-being of ageing island dwellers, and invite interest and input from other interested researchers and donors into furthering this research agenda.
See the Research Centre on Gender, Health and Ageing webpage at:
See WHO’s Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) webpage at: