1. Eszter Bakonyi: Theoretical Dilemmas on Measuring Trust Toward Institutions Medián Opinion and Market Research Institute, Budapest
Between Social Change and Nationalism
Conference in Honour of Dr. Michalis Attalides
10-11 November, 2006, Nicosia

2. 1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization)
trust in one’s fellows or in the institutions
feeling or strategic action
manifestation: solidarity and participation
the origins of trust: society or the political system

3. 1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization)
trust or distrust: - trust makes participation, activity and democracy work, distrust paralyzes society
- trust doesn’t exist (in the fellows), only in the penalties
- trust doesn’t need democratic order, but chaos

4. 1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization)
functional definitions of trust: - cognitive
- social
- legitimatory
from a normative point of view: which one should we prefer: - high degree of trust (interest in politics, information, own opinion)
- Liberal Distrust (against blind trust and the non-Weberian bureaucracy

5. 1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization)
Luhmann’s typology:
confidence
trust
the presuppositions don’t fail
to take the risk or not
in the system
in one’s fellows
the condition of participation
the condition of best application of chances
outside causes to explain the situation
inside causes
lack: back to the private
lack: fewer actions and opportunities of rational actions (it makes smaller the system)
their relationship: not a zero-sum game

6. 2. Methodological dilemmas (operationalization)
invisible → becomes conscious when it has been broken → how to measure
the presence and/ or the volume and/ or the consequences
not directly → indicators

7. 2. Methodological dilemmas (operationalization)
„Do you trust the president?” – about the goodwill or the competence
measuring trust towards institutions or the degree of information about institutions – participation, role of the media

8. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
mistrust toward institutions in Central European societies before the regime change in : - the historical situation
- reading between the lines
- informal economy & public sphere and discourses

9. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
Political institutions
Legal institutions & armed corps
Social & economic institutions
blind trust 81 92 83
general trust 66 68 67
trust that law prevails 69 85 52
trust in central authority, strong state 62 54 46
trust in counterbalance of central authority 37 39 49
waiting for political change 63 56
order-loving suspicious 43 61 29
general distrust 33 34 27
dismissive 11 10 13

10. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus

11. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
Ferenc Gyurcsány’s (PM) speech → demonstration, violence, the opposition party brought politics to the streets and out from the parliament
the 50th celebration of the 1956 revolution → brutality of the police
‘edification’: weak institutions

12. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
What do you think, who has the main responsibility for the runaway anger? (percentage)
What do you think, should the Prime Minister resign or he shouldn’t resign after what happened? (percentage)

13. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
the British took control (1878) → the bicommunal character had been formed and consolidated
ethnopolitical polarization, structural inadequacies of the state, the lack of experience in self-government, the absence of a consensual political leader → open ethnic confrontation & collapse of the state (1963)
an almost complete separation came into effect after the Turkish invasion (1974)

14. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
result: - politicization of ethnicity
- perceptions dominated by the ‘suspicion syndrome’
- both are institutionalized
- the reclosing of the ceasefire line that divides the island seems to be only a matter of time

15. 3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
comparing the Hungarian and the Cypriot case:
- the question of trust
- showing political questions as moral questions
- ingroup-outgroup conflict
- Hungary: the confidence has been broken, Cyprus: the trust has been broken

16. Thank you for your attention! bakonyi@median.hu