1. Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 8 October 23, 2008
The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections (2)
Latinos and the 2008 Elections
Lecture 8
October 23, 2008

2. Prologues Conclude viewing
Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the Nation

3. Lessons from Conclusion of 2000 Race
Ballot design and voting technologies
Does “every vote count?”
Bush v. Gore (new role of courts?)
Campaigns invest in potential legal challenges 2008 (and beyond)
Renewed attention to voter eligibility
The Electoral College and the dominance of the “battleground state”

4. Bush v. Gore – A New Set of Rules?
Issues before the court
Are recounts constitutional?
If they are unconstitutional, what’s the remedy?
Holding
State violated equal protection clause of U.S. constitutions 14th Amendment – no equal standard across Florida counties
No remedy – the date of the Supreme Court’s decision was the day that Florida had established as a deadline
Majority opinion asserts -- “limited to the present circumstances” or could place the courts in the center of election disputes

5. Questions to Consider for This Week’s Readings
Why don’t eligible Latinos naturalize?
Were citizenship-eligible Latinos to naturalize, how would they change the Latino vote (think in terms of impact and in terms of issues)?
What issues shape Latino vote choice in 2008?

6. Stages of the Presidential Campaign
Pre-campaign
Candidate self-selection
Key time point – previous mid-term election
Primaries
Candidate selection, usually early in primary season (late Winter)
Candidate positioning and fundraising
Convention
Opportunity for party elites to meet and greet
Uninterrupted opportunity to state message
General election

7. 2000 and 2004 Primaries
Democrats seeking to create opportunity for Latino voice (2004)
Latino Democrats joined the Gore and Kerry bandwagons earlier and stronger
They did little to campaign for their votes, though
Result –untested in terms of outreach
2004 – Sharpton (African American candidate) didn’t appeal to Latino voters
Black plurality always went to Kerry
Latinos supported only marginally more than whites

8. Latinos and the Party Conventions, 2000 and 2004
Number of Latino delegates steadily growing, particularly on Democratic side
2000
Los Angeles site of Democratic convention
Bush assured a prominent symbolic place for Latinos entertainers and political leaders
2004
Bill Richardson, Chair of Democratic Convention
Latino delegates did organize and saw daily visits from party leaders
Few prominent Latino speakers during prime time
Latino delegates, like most delegates, window dressing
Conventions offer little opportunity to shape candidate’s policy objectives

9. Democratic Party Delegates, by Race/Ethnicity, 1984-2008

10. Where Were Latinos at the Start of the Fall Campaign?
2000 & 2004 – competitive states not the big Latino states
Latinos less courted that in 1996
Gore and Kerry showed little Latino outreach
Campaigns moved to Tennessee, Boston, and Austin
Bush (2001) made a major symbolic proposal – the guest worker program – but had done little to follow up
Kerry tried to reach out as a Catholic and through Teresa Kerry (an immigrant from Mozambique who ancestry is Portuguese)

11. Latino Votes in the 2000 and 2004 Elections
Latino voices muted (in federal races)
Outcome of elections was out of the control of Latino communities
In states where unity and turnout could have led to influence, the evidence is mixed
Concerns about exit polls will make the Latino voice a subject of continuing dispute

12. Latino Vote Share, 2004 Bush Kerry National 38-41% 57-60% Arizona 42%
58%
California
31%
65%
Colorado
28%
70%
Florida
54%
46%
Illinois
22%
77%
New Jersey
41%
56%
New Mexico
57%
New York
18%
80%
Texas
52%
47%

13. These Results Somewhat Disputed
William C. Velasquez Research Institute Exit Poll
Nation
Kerry – 67.7 percent
Bush – 31.4 percent
Sample – 1,179 respondents in 56 precincts in 14 states
Florida
Kerry – 52.0 percent
Bush – 45.7 percent
Sample – 1,147 respondents in 45 precincts in nine counties

14. Who in the Latino Community Shifted Between 2000 and 2004?
Toward Bush
Texas Latinos
Religiously-observant Latinos
2nd generation (the children of immigrants)
Toward Kerry/the Democrats
Florida Latinos
2nd generation Cubans
Unique to 2004
Two Senate races with Latino candidates

15. Latino Vote Share Senate Races, 2004
Democrat
Republican
Arizona
29%
70%
California
72%
19%
Colorado
25%
Florida
41%
59%
Illinois
83%
16%
New York
80%
Nevada
67%
27%

16. Questions for Next Week’s Readings
Under what circumstances can Latinos influence the outcomes of statewide elections?
Think about different forms of influence
And different ways that influence can be evaluated
How could electoral rules/practices be changed to enhance Latino influence?