1. Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project
2060 Current Trend
2060 Alternative or
The Tampa Bay region is faced with some tough decisions of how to manage their system as population continues to grow and the watershed becomes more urbanized.
Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project
2010 Update
May 2010
Marc J. Russell
Gulf Ecology Division

2. Introduction Ecosystem Services Alternative Futures Benefits
The Tampa Bay Ecological Services Demonstration project will illustrate how regional and local managers can proactively use alternative future scenarios to conserve and enhance ecosystem goods and services in order to benefit human well-being and to secure the integrity and productivity of ecological systems.
Ecosystem Services
Alternative Futures
Benefits

3. Functions, Services, and, Benefits= + =
Ecological Functions
Final Service
Use
Well-being

4. Tampa Bay Project Conceptual Model
Stressors are identified
Ecosystems are categorized
Production functions are developed
Unit models are produced
Models are refined and calibrated
Models are linked via connectivity map – supply and demand
Model output is valued for human well-being
Future scenarios run FY
We are linking stressors and drivers to production functions in various ecosystems. These functions are then translated into services with value to humans in a spatially explicit manner. Stressors and Drivers will then be defined by multiple future scenarios so that the production of services can be compared.

5. Decision Support System Goal
Provide tools for local to regional scale managers to make informed decisions on economic development and land use change in the context of climate change.
Restoration and conservation prioritization
Storm water ruling and green infrastructure
Regional development planning
Products:
Atlas of ecosystem services under various alternate futures
Interactive regional map showing connectivity between ecosystem services production and demand by humans
Fully customizable map tool for running new scenarios at the regional scale

6. 2006 Foundation Year Maps (Many functions/services).
Apply value from Chicago Carbon Exchange ($10 / ton C)
and apportion to NHD+ basins.

7. Harvey, James, Marc Russell, Darrin Dantin, and Janet Nestlerode. 2009
Harvey, James, Marc Russell, Darrin Dantin, and Janet Nestlerode Integrated Approaches to Estuarine Use and Protection: Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Case Study.  In: Estuaries: Types, Movement Patterns and Climatical Impacts. Editors: Julian R. Crane and Ashton E. Solomon.  Nova Publishers, Hauppauge, NY.  (ERL,GB 1378). ISBN:
Yee, S. H., J. E. Rogers, J. Harvey, W. Fisher, M. Russell, P. Bradley. Concept mapping for ecosystem goods and services (accepted book chapter).
Russell, M. J., J. Rogers, S. Jordan, D. Dantin, J. Nestlerode, and J. Harvey. MS in review. Ecosystem services research prioritization. For submission to Environ. Man.

8. 2010-11 Research Elements Terrestrial
Urban Forestry – Nitrogen removal
Wetland
Nitrogen Removal
Carbon Storage
Hydrology
Links to Condition Assessments
Open Water
Impacts on Seagrass Growth
Fishery Production
All feed into a spatially linked predictive
ecosystem services model

9. SIMILE Ecosystem Function Modules
Terrestrial
Carbon Sequestration
Air Purification
UF Co-Op
Nitrogen Removal
Water Retention
Co-Op
Water, Nutrients, Contaminants, etc.
Wetland
Trophic Transfer
Habitat Change
USGS IAG
Nitrogen Removal
Fishery Production
Carbon Sequestration
Sediment Accretion
Co-Op
Water, Nutrients, Contaminants, etc.
Open Water
TBEP
Seagrass Growth
Fishery Production

10. What is the range of possible scenarios?
Human population 100%
Tree cover %
New development mil. acres
Ag, pasture, forest 11%
Impervious surface to 38%
TN loads tons/yr
Atmospheric CO ppm
Precipitation 7.7%
Temperature oF
Sea level rise 15 inches
Hurricanes intensity
We have to be able to model the net response of
ecosystem functions to all of these simultaneously
(in space and time).
*Better information on production functions needed.

11. Dynamic Simile-Based Unit Models for Predicting the Effects of Development and Climate Change Predictions on a Suite of Ecosystem Services
Algal Growth (N)
Temperature Adjust
Seagrass Growth
Oxygen Production
Algal Growth (C)
Nutrient Controls
Irradiance
Irradiance Attenuation
Algal Growth (P)
(d)
Seagrass Biomass
(N Pulse Simulation)
Seagrass Growth Linked to Hexagon Grid
Time
PHYTO C
100
200
300
400
1000
2000
Algal C
Chl
Yoskowitz, D., M. Russell, S. Jordan, and J. Rogers. In prep. Recreational fishery value of seagrasses in Tampa Bay. Targeted for Ecol. Econ. Kd
Irradiance Attenuation

12. Website Delivery – Public Focused Digital “Coffee Table” Atlas
Phase One:
Static maps and
general info
Phase Two:
Interactive maps
and static
projections
Phase Three:
Interactive
scenarios

13. Questions? Skyway bridge across bay Hillsborough River Cypress
Ultimately we hope that the tools developed during the Tampa Bay project can help local managers deal with tough decisions by providing information on the ramifications of those decisions to the services the population of the Tampa Bay region rely on for their continued health and well-being.
And with that I will take, time permitting, any questions on this project update.
Thanks
Downtown Tampa
Little Manatee River
Alafia Banks Spoonbills