1. Ageing and Longevity: What the Future Holds
Professor Heather Booth
School of Demography, Australian National University
4th International Conference on Ageing in a Foreign Land, Adelaide, June 2017

2. Population & Longevity Ageing
Age structure
Product of past demographic rates
Individuals
Living longer
More youthful at given age

3. population ageing – all about structure

4. 1971: proportion aged 65+ = 8.3%
Source: ABS

5. 2016: proportion aged 65+ = 15.1%
Source: ABS

6. 2036: proportion aged 65+ = 19.5%
Source: ABS. Note: This projection assumes continued high labour immigration.

7. Australia’s population ageing is moderate
…..but why?

8. Demographic Transition and Population Ageing
THE PROCESS
Death rates fall - child survival
High population growth
Birth rates fall
POPULATION AGEING
Low population growth

9. Demographic Transition and Population Ageing
THE PROCESS
Death rates fall - child survival
High population growth
Birth rates fall
POPULATION AGEING
Low population growth
NEW FEATURES
Old-aged death rates fall –> ageing
Large-scale migration

10. Migration and Population Ageing
28% of 2016 Australian population were born overseas
But migrants age ….
37% of 2016 population aged 65+ were born overseas
2016
‘Home-grown’ population increases
Post-war migration
At arrival, most migrants are young adults
Source: ABS

11. Who are Australia’s older migrants
Who are Australia’s older migrants? Largest migrant 65+ populations, Australia, 2016
Source: ABS

12. Largest migrant 65+ populations, grouped by migration history, Australia, 2016
Proportion aged 65 or older in largest migrant 65+ populations, Australia, 2016

13. Largest migrant 65+ populations, grouped by migration history, Australia, 2016
Median age of largest migrant 65+ populations, Australia, 2016

14. ‘Age Factor’: an indicator of relative migrant share in population ageing
Age factor = share of total 65+ population x median age of 65+ population

15. Largest migrant 65+ populations, grouped by migration history, Australia, 2016
Relative migrant share in population ageing, Australia, 2016

16. Implications of population ageing

17. Australia: rising old age dependency ratio
Based on age groups: 0-14, 15-64, 65+

19. longevity

20. Longevity
Humans are living longer …and longer … and there is no end in sight

21. Observed maximum female life expectancy
Oeppen and Vaupel (2002)

22. Observed maximum female life expectancy
Japan years
Oeppen and Vaupel (2002)

23. Life expectancy at birth, Australia, 1950-2014 with forecast to 2044
88.6
84.6
85.1
Female
Range = 80% probability interval
80.6
Male
Forecast based on method of Hyndman, Booth and Yasmeen (2012)

24. But how long do we live?
Life expectancy at birth – limited for measuring real longevity or age at death
Based on all deaths in a particular year
Not a life-course perspective
Not focused on older ages
Cohort life expectancy (CLE) at older ages is a more useful measure
Age + CLE = expected age at death

25. Expected age at death increases over time and over lifetime
Younger cohorts have higher expected age at death (small effect)
Expected age at death increases with own age (large effect)
Are these increases being planned for?
Cohort
Forecasts by Tickle and Booth (2014)

26. Increasing expected age at death and decisions about retirement

27. The gap: years in ‘retirement’
Expected age at death at pension age
Pension age (current legislation)
Based on period life expectancies: underestimate life-course expected age at death

28. Average years in ‘retirement’
After ‘retirement’, females can expect to live 24 years and males 21 years
Is the gap too large?
Should pension age be linked to life expectancy?
Was earlier female retirement a blessing or a curse?!

29. Is the gap too large? – it all depends……
…. and other factors

30. Australia has high poverty rates at 65+
33% of older Australians live in poverty, compared with 14% at younger ages.
Remarkably, Australia is almost the worst country in OECD in terms of old age poverty.
Source: OECD; poverty is defined as less than 50% of median income

31. Australia has relatively high socio-economic inequality in life expectancy@65
Note: Australian figures are from survey data and are approximate.

32. Whose average years in ‘retirement’?
For the lowest income group
After ‘retirement’, females can expect to live 21.5 years and males 17.5 years
Was earlier female retirement a blessing or a curse?!

33. Compensatory behaviour
The poor live fewer ‘post-retirement’ years (post-65)
But those in poor health tend to retire at a younger age
The rich live longer in ‘retirement’ (post-65)
But those in good health tend to retire later

34. Should pension age be linked to life expectancy?
Arguments for linking pension age to life expectancy should consider inequality in longevity.
We don’t all have a long healthy retirement
Socioeconomic inequality is a main factor

35. Should pension age be linked to life expectancy?
Australia does not yet have reliable data on life expectancy by socio-economic status (or by other factors)
Formal variable pension age is impractical
Pension age is most relevant to the poor
Old age security should be guaranteed
Flexibility is needed in retirement
Incentives to prospective pensioners to work beyond pension age