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Positive Feedback and Vicious Circles

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1 Positive Feedback and Vicious Circles
Ethiopia

2 Preview Marxist revolution Marxist dictatorship Civil war
Iron law of oligarchy Communist iron law of oligarchy

3 Marxist revolution For decades before 1974, Haile Selassie, the Solomonic emporer, had effectively ruled the country as his private property, handing out favors and patronage and ruthlessly punishing a lack of loyalty.

4 Marxist revolution In 1974, the Derg, a group of Marxist officers, in the Ethiopian military overthrew Mr. Selassie. The Derg initially formed out of 108 representatives of different military units throughout the country unified by a desire for reform. Though the Derg initially claimed to support the emperor, they soon began to arrest members of his government and finally Mr. Selassie himself. Many were executed, and Mr. Selassie was probably murdered in  

5 Marxist revolution In 1975, the Derg began to nationalize property, including land, according to Marxist ideology. But towns in Eritrea and Tigray soon rebelled. And because of the domestic instability, Somalia invaded the Somali-speaking region of Ogaden.

6 Ethiopia

7 Marxist dictatorship The Derg itself began to split into factions and to infight. However, Mengistu Haile Mariam from the Third Division in the Harar province was willing and able to consolidate power through violence. By 1977, Major Mengistu had mostly eliminated rival factions and opponents inside and outside of the Derg, as well as gain political and military support from the Soviet Union and Cuba. By 1978, Major Mengistu had effectively become a military dictator. In fact, he decided to move into to the old palace of the emperor and to hold official functions there. Mr. Mengistu even sat on Mr. Selassie’s old throne during these ceremonies.

8 Civil war But the violence of the Derg created a civil war that lasted until 1991, when Mr. Mengistu was forced to flee to Zimbabwe by a coalition led by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The war left between 230, million dead. See

9 Iron law of oligarchy Robert Michels called the new revolutionaries replacing the trappings of power of the old regime the “iron law of oligarchy”. Mr. Michels argued that hierarchical organizations will reproduce themselves when a new group overthrows the old elites. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

10 Iron law of oligarchy In addition to Ethiopia, Robert Michels’ iron law of oligarchy can be seen in Sierra Leone, where the anti-British Mr. Stevens soon treated his fellow countrymen even worse than their former colonial masters. Also, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Laurent Kabila mobilized an army against Mobutu’s dictatorship set up a regime no less corrupt or murderous. And we will discuss later Zimbabwe, whose people have had several masters that overthrew previous masters.

11 Communist iron law of oligarchy
Other countries that have espoused Marxist or communist ideology often started with a revolution and revolutionary ideology but quickly the “new” ideology began to resemble the old order as a new elite class was created that purged, killed and expropriated the property of the old order.

12 Communist iron law of oligarchy
The economic consequence and the human suffering were frighteningly similar in Russia, China and North Korea. Communist economic institutions eliminated private property rights and expropriated resources, including labor resources, from the majority of the population. Although initially the command economy in Russia was able to generate substantial growth for a few decades, the growth stagnated by the 1970s. The consequences were much more devastating in Mao Zedong’s China, the Khmer Rouge’s Cambodia and the North Korea ruled by Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun (grandfather, father and son) where widespread imprisonment, execution, economic collapse and famine occurred.

13 Communist iron law of oligarchy
And like countries in Africa (including Ethiopia, a Marxist state) and Latin America, political and economic power was soon consolidated in the hands of the elite communist officials, communist ideology notwithstanding.

14 Economic and social indicators

15 Post-communist Ethiopia
Since the war ended in 1991, the government has been elected with somewhat fair elections and property has been privatized and private investment made cheap: See from 0:00-12:17. See from 2:00-2:33 and 17:12-24:19 See from 1:30-6:25.

16 Economic and social indicators

17 Economic and social indicators


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