1. Value Estimate for the ILC Superconducting Modules and High Level RF
Wilhelm Bialowons, Norihito Ohuchi and Kenji Saito · GDE, Shigeki Fukuda · KEK, Raymond S. Larsen and Michael L. Neubauer · SLAC, Richard P. Stanek · FNAL et al
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

2. Master Outline Introduction Costing Rules High Level RF Cost Estimate
Cryomodule Cost Estimate
Summary
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

3. Introduction RDR Costing Guidelines March 11, 2006
High technology: Items such as cavities, cryomodules, and rf power sources, where there will be interest in developing expertise in all three regions, should be estimated separately for manufacture by each region. Costs should be provided for the total number of components …
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

4. Costing Rules value is world market price if exists
One common estimate of the “value” and labor including site dependent cost is made. The definition of the “value” is:
Cost estimate of the construction cost but no preparation cost.
Cost estimate on the basis of a world wide call for tender, i.e. the value of an item is the world market price if it exists.
The selection criterion is the best price for the best quality.
One vender supplies the total number of deliverables. Two vendors for the same package could be chosen for risk minimization. Then the parts depend on the bids.
If necessary parametric cost estimate is used for scaling of the cost, i.e. for cost improvement. The cost improvement is defined by the following equation: P = P1 Na where P is the total price of N units, P1 is the first unit price and a the slope of the curve related to learning. The slope a is for large N also the ratio of the last unit price PN and the average unit price <P>.
No tax is included.
No escalation is used. The fixed date is January 2, 2007.
No contingency is calculated. The risk will be analyzed separately.
One currency with fixed exchange rates is used. The fixed exchange rates are: 1 M€ = 1.2 M$ = 1.44 Oku¥.
Fixed raw material prices, i.e. for copper, steel and niobium, and fixed prices for power are used. The fixed prices are: Electrical work C/W = $ 0.1/kWh (incl. supply cost), Copper C/m = $ 1000/100 kg (up to factor three higher for degassed copper), Black steel C/m = $ 0.6 /kg (for stainless and magnet steel up to factor three higher).
The external labor is included in the value.
Internal (institute) labor will be estimated in person hours (1 person year = 1700 person hours).
The EDIA[1] is included in the item cost.
[1] In the U.S. EDIA is the acronym for Engineering, Design, Inspection and Administration. Industry calls this non-recurring engineering (NRE).
value is world market price if exists
P = P1Na, where P is the total price of N units
1 M€ = 1.2 M$
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

5. High Level RF Value Estimate
Collaborators and Contributors
KEK: S. Fukuda (Asia Technical Co-Chair & HLRF POC) H. Hayano, T. Shidara, M. Akemoto
FNAL: C. Jensen, B. Chase, N. Solyak, O. Nezhevenko, R. Reid, J. Leibfritz, E. Heudem
SLAC: R. Larsen (Americas Technical Co-Chair) C. Adolphsen, M. Neubauer, C. Nantista, C. Corvin, R. Cassel,
DESY: Contacts W. Bialowons, L. Lillje, S. Choroba, S. Simrock (LLRF)
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

6. Outline HLRF Value Estimate
High Level RF Sums
Overview 10 MW Main Linac Station
American HLRF Cost Estimate
Cost Methodology
Learning Curves
European HLRF Cost Estimate
Comparison between XFEL and TDR Supplement cost of the High Level RF
Material List and Work Break Down Structure
Cost Results for 10 MW System by Region
Conclusion for HLRF Cost Estimate
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

7. HLRF Top Level Sums Global Design Effort
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

8. Total HLRF Systems = M$ 660 Global Design Effort
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

9. 10 MW Linac Stations Global Design Effort Penetrations:
Cable & Plumbing
Waveguide
LLRF, Controls,
Protection Racks
Charger
Main Modulator
HV Pulse Transformer
Horizontal Klystron
LCW Chiller
AC Switchgear
Waveguide Distribution
System
Dwg: J. Liebfritz
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

10. 10 MW L-Band Stations (1)
Prototype stations in use at DESY for ~10 years
Chosen as Baseline Conceptual Design (BCD) 2004 at Snowmass
Dual tunnel model eliminates long expensive HV cable plant
Modulator, Charger, Pulse Transformer
Cost Model used FNAL design most recent costs updated to Vendors in Europe & US built small quantities all items.
Learning curves applied to extrapolate to mass production
Klystron
Multi-beam tube (MBK) prototypes built by three companies in Japan, France, US provide limited cost information for mass production
SLAC experts constructed bottom-up new factory model with cost recovery modeled into mass production.
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

11. 10 MW L-Band Stations (2) Waveguide Distribution System
Complex and expensive based on current off-the-shelf components
Circulators and tuners on every cavity, hybrids drive cost
Cost model is bottom up-using TESLA approach but some optimization of designs assumed
Quotes from industry in 2 regions plus European lab estimate
Controls, Protection and Infrastructure
Conventional HV, LV distribution based on US RSMeans COTS pricing for quantities
Protection model based on bottom up of conventional COTS Programmable Logic Controllers, power supplies, vacuum etc.
Some component pricing obtained from Asia for comparison
Learning curves applied in all cases
Budgetary quotes obtained from 3 Regions, vendors wherever possible to compare with bottom-up
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

12. Klystron Learning Curve c.f. Industry
“Learning Curve Components” for an 88 % curve fit to the Klystron Factory Model
Labor LC=80%
Material LC=95%
Other u
Periodic Costs are rate dependent
Klystron Cost
Other Periodic Costs
Tooling
Fixturing
Automation
Indirect Labor
Cleaning
Plating
Supplies
Utilities
Leasing
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

13. CPI VKS-7964M Learning Curve
Example Snowmass 2005 “RF source selection for the ILC” Wright, Bohlen, Lenci, Balkcum
L = 83 %, a = 0.73 !!
L = <P2N> / <PN>
Costs increased when rate was reduced
Lowest cost at max production rate
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

14. Comparison between XFEL and TESLA Cost
The ratio can be explained by:
Escalation ( %)
Increase of raw material prices (Cu Index price ~ $10/ kg)
Additional experience
L = 88 %
Main Linac RF System
XFEL
TESLA Supplement N
P / M€
P/N/M€
Ratio 29
69.81*
2.407 26
47*
1.808
1.332
 4/3
N number of items, P total price
* without Institutional Labor
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

15. Material List (Scaled TESLA Cost)
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

16. WBS for HLRF HLRF for ML: M$ 650.24 Global Design Effort
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort

17. Cost Results for HLRF by Region
Note: RF Dist’n no’s from
Asia & Europe scaled for
CC# model
Some components have no Mfg base in Asia
January 10, ILC MAC Meeting
Global Design Effort