1. Mikhail A. Molchanov
Regionalism and multivectorism in Eurasia: The strange case of Ukraine Prepared for the ISA's 57th Annual Convention March 16th - 19th, 2016, Atlanta, Georgia

2. Ukraine between East and West
The lack of consistency in foreign policy
Pro-West
Staunch US ally (Iraq; NATO-Ukraine Council)
“Return to Europe” since 1991
Pro-Russian
CIS member; headed organization in 2003 and 2014
Joint military exercises with Russia until 2014
CIS trade - 35–45 per cent of Ukraine’s exports in 2000–2014
“Like a weathercock, changed foreign policy priorities” (Nazarbayev, 2014)
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

3. The promise of multivectorism
Multivectorism as an adaptation strategy
membership in one regional community should not preclude same country’s membership in another regional community
risk avoidance in foreign policy
External liberalism co-exists with internal nationalism and statism
Constraints
Pre-existing regional interdependence
“Anti-alliance” politics has its limits
Regionalism: looking for a “family” of nations
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

4. Ethno-linguistic divisions
Center-West vs. East-South-East (Donbass)
Two ethno-linguistic communities
In million ethnic Russians (22% of the pop-n) – down to 17% by 2001
Russian language –preferred by 60% of pop-n
Language question has been a staple in Ukraine’s electoral cycle since 1994
Ukraine’s “European choice” as an anti- Russian project catered to one regional group
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

5. Economic interdependence
RF – the largest investor (Cyprus, Netherlands, RF)
In 2011, RF took 30% of Ukraine’s total exports of goods (more than the whole of the EU)
In 2014 – 22% exports and provided < 30% imports
Near 80% of oil and gas consumption are covered by imports (68–75% from RBK Customs Union)
Russia absorbed 2/3 of Ukraine’s heavy machine- building exports and 1/2 of all of its machinery exports until 2014
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

6. Western influences Cultural imperialism Economic dominance
Feelings toward the West: ressentiment, envy
Economic dominance
91% grads want to work abroad (2014)
$167 bln capital flight by 2012
Ukrainian diaspora in the West
Canada (1.2 mln), USA (1 mln), UK, Australia, etc.
Descendants of OUN/UPA; virulently Russophobic
Nationalist lobby dismantled the pragmatic “multivector” orientation of Ukraine’s FP
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

7. The “Maidan” aftermath
Eurasian Union
Eurasian Community contributed to 4x growth in trade ( ), RBK +11% ( )
Ukraine desirable but RBK can do without
The road to EAEU is now closed
European Union
Ukraine’s riding of two horses was not helpful
Diaspora represented the Eurasian Union as a “geopolitical project;” western gov’ts went along
EU-US provoked the showdown; civil war in Donbass
The road to the EU is now closed
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

8. Thank you! http://people.stu.ca/~molchan/ @MA_Molchanov molchan@stu.ca
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada