1. Future of client management
Gareth Herbert - Sales Director

2. “Nearly every social and technical and business infrastructure we have can’t survive”

3. Facts about the market

4. 2014
2015
FTB
£29.4bn
-flat
Homemover
£44.6bn
£45.3bn
+1.5%
Remortgage
£38.1bn
£41.1bn
+7.8%
Buy-to-Let
£17.2bn
£23.8bn
+38%

5. Short term market interest rate expectations
What does this mean for interest rates?
Short term market interest rate expectations
(3 Month Sterling LIBOR Rates, %)

6. Annual house price growth has slowed
Preferred
forms of communication
Annual house price growth has slowed
Annual house price growth has slowed
Annual percentage change in UK house prices

7. Large regional divergence persists
Regional house prices relative to 2007 peak

8. Pace of remortgaging hard to gauge

9. BTL increasingly important to mortgage market

10. Ongoing tenure trends will provide support for BTL

11. Lack of supply already a constraint on market activity
RICS - average stocks of properties on books

12. …and stock for available for sale has declined
What is going on?
Available stock on rightmove.co.uk

13. Long-term forces are driving falling housing turnover
Owned Outright
Owner-Occupier, Mortgaged
Private Rental
Social Housing
Source: English Housing Survey, 2014
Investors trade properties roughly half as often as owner- occupiers
Mortgage-free empty-nesters have no pressing need to trade down, and few properties suit their needs - expect them to transact like investors
First-time buyers have been helped with their first purchase
Their second purchase must satisfy stringent affordability tests and reach elevated prices without support
Expect the gap between first and second purchase to widen

14. The market appears constrained by supply… demand drives prices but not volumes
Housing turnover is already incredibly low today - 32M houses / 1.20 transactions per year
= 1 transaction per property per 27 years!?
Implies large pools of rarely traded property
Implies many latent risks
All else equal, current construction volumes and changing tenure trends will cause our markets to shrink further
…10% fewer mortgages by 2025
…15% fewer mortgage purchase transactions by 2025
In the 1990s we were short of buyers, so we focused on first-time buyers
In the 2010s we are short of sellers, so we should focus on new-build

15. Remortgage Customer PCW’S Education MMR/MCD Regulation Trust
Opportunities
Remortgage
Prisoners
Interest only
Consumer
Behaviour
Protection
Campaigns

19. Opportunities
Interest only
First-time buyer
New Build
Self Build
Custom Build

20. Most important social media channels
Consumer
behaviour
Social media opens up whole new ways of
reaching those clients that have embraced
that technology – but this is unlikely to be the
whole of your client base
Most important social media channels
44%
31%
Social Media
30%
18%

21. Influence – The art of persuasion Commonality Social Proof Scarcity
Commitment
Reciprocal
Commonality
Social Proof
Influence –
The art of persuasion
Liking
Scarcity
Authority