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Living Standards & Inequality
Alastair Muriel Institute for Fiscal Studies 28th March 2007
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Headlines – Living Standards
2004/5 to 2005/6 Little growth in average income from previous year Since 1996/7 Incomes grew 2.3% per year (on average) Strong growth up to 2001/2 4 successive years of weaker growth since 2002/3
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Headlines – Inequality
2004/5 to 2005/6 Small rise in inequality Not statistically significant Since 1996/7 Small increase in inequality since Labour came to power Statistically significant
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How incomes are calculated
Same as the way government does for HBAI: Net of all direct taxes and benefits Measured at the household level Adjusted for family size (equivalised) Presented both before and after housing costs UK figures available from GB figures from before 2001 Based on Family Resources Survey (FRS) All statistics subject to sampling error
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The UK Income Distribution in 2005/06
Poverty Threshold £217 Median, £362 Mean, £443
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Changes in average real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Changes in average real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Changes in mean real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Changes in mean real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Changes in mean real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Changes in mean real incomes since 1979 (GB)
Source: HM Treasury
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Average income growth 2.1% 1.6% Mean Median
Conservatives: /97 2.1% 1.6% Labour: 1996/ /06 2004/ /06
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Average income growth 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 2.0% Mean Median
Conservatives: /97 2.1% 1.6% Labour: 1996/ /06 2.3% 2.0% 2004/ /06
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Average income growth 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% Mean Median
Conservatives: /97 2.1% 1.6% Labour: 1996/ /06 2.3% 2.0% 2004/ /06 1.3% 1.0%
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Components of Income
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Average Annual Growth in Components of Income
Payments
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Income inequality Popularly defined as ‘the gap between rich and poor’
No single agreed measure of inequality Important to look at a range of graphical and summary measures
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Income changes by quintile group, 2004/05 – 2005/06
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Income changes by percentile group: 2004/5 – 2005/06 (GB)
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Income changes by percentile group: 2004/5 – 2005/06 (GB)
95% Confidence Intervals
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Income changes by percentile group: 2004/5 – 2005/06 (GB)
Median growth: 1%
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Income changes by percentile group: 2004/5 – 2005/06 (GB)
Average growth above median: 1.4%
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Income changes by percentile group: 2004/5 – 2005/06 (GB)
Average growth below median: 0.2%
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Income changes by percentile group: 1996/97 – 2005/06
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Income changes by percentile group: 1996/97 – 2005/06
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Income changes by percentile group: 1996/97 – 2005/06
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Income changes by percentile group: 1996/97 – 2005/06
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Income changes by percentile group: 1996/97 – 2005/06
/7
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The Gini Coefficient: 1979 – 2005/06
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Summary measures of income inequality 1996/97 – 2005/06
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Brown’s redistributive record
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Conclusions Modest growth in average incomes
Fourth successive year of slow growth Average income growth by 2.3% p.a. under Labour Income inequality rising again Income inequality edged up between 2004/05 and 2005/06 on many measures Now slightly higher than when Labour came to power The future Slower growth in public spending may limit scope for more redistribution
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