1. COSMO-RU operational verification in Russia using VERSUS2
Anastasia Bundel and Anatoly Muravyev
Roshydromet
Rome, 5 September 2011

2. COSMO-RU7 - basic version for European Russia

3. MSLP MAM2011 errors NO suspect observation
Suspect observation <=10 hPa
Up to 900! cases at some steps (~5%)
Suspect observation
<=12 hPa
Up to 200 cases at some steps (~1%)

4. Station analysis of suspect observations of MSLP

5. T2m MAM2011, all Russian stations - big errors

6. T2m MAM2011 time series, all Russian Stations
Snow melting
period –
Big errors
New snow melting scheme
(Rozinkina and Kazakova) –
Improvement!

7. T2m, station Krasnaya Polyana (Sochi region)
Suspect observations?
Suspect observations are not present
in the report on suspect observations.
Even if the suspect observation is set
to <=3 degrees C,
it does not influence the results

8. COSMO-RU2.2: Central Russia (Moscow region) and Southern Russia (Sochi region). Comparison with COSMO-RU7

9. T2m COSMORU 2.2 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana
Bad model value
It cannot be deleted from GUI, only manually from MySQL.

10. T2m COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana
Less
overestimating
7 km

11. T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Krasnaya Polyana
Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized !
COSMO-RU 2.2 km is better than
COSMO-RU 7 km for Krasnaya Polyana

12. Wind speed in COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Krasnaya Polyana

13. T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Moscow
Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized !
COSMO-RU 2.2 km RMSE is even slightly higher than that of COSMO-RU 7 km for Moscow

14. Our problems with VERSUS and desirable features
Function Suspect observations for T2m does not influence the result
I cannot delete a time series
I cannot delete the data from GUI in Data Availability > Delete
Forecast grib data can be found in Data Availability only the first time after logging in VERSUS GUI
A possibility to delete verifications from several models at a time would be useful
A possibility to plot a time series of several models would be useful

15. Conclusions and Plans
A new snow-melting scheme developed by Rozinkina and Kazakova considerably improves T2m during the snow melting period.
COSMO-RU 2.2 km for the Sochi region (Krasnaya Polyana) provides better T2m forecasts, less bias in wind speed, but slightly worse wind speed RMSE compared to the 7-km version.
COSMO-RU 2.2 km for Moscow provides higher T2m RMSE compared to the 7-km version.
6-h precipitation and cloud observation data will be soon added. Then, conditional verification for Russia will be made routinely.
Weather type classification will be urgently needed for the Sochi region.

16. Thank you for your attention!