1. PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON SOUTH SUDAN REFERENDUM UNITY OR SECESSION
Lake State dominant opinion
Prepared by: AIM Release date: 16th Sept. 2010

2. LAKE STATE PUBLIC OPINION ON SOUTHERN SUDAN REFERENDUM
ON THE OPTIONS OF
A UNITED SUDAN
AND
SECESSION OF SOUTH SUDAN

3. Lake State Opinion Poll
In the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), it states that the right of self-determination for the people of South Sudan be exercised through a referendum. The choice is made between confirming the Unity and Secession of South Sudan. Apart from personal details, Lake State in South Sudan`s opinion poll answered the following questions:
What of the two options is your choice:
Unity or Secession?
2. What reason/s do you give for your answer?
3. When do you want the referendum results implemented?
After 2months
After six Month
After six years
Almost immediately

4. Lake State Opinion Poll
SOUTH SUDANESE HAVE THEIR SAY ON THE CHOICE OF THEIR DESTINY TO ESTABLISH A COUNTRY OF THEIR OWN OR REMAIN IN A UNITED SUDAN ON NEW BASIS
2010 opens with divided views on the contents of the options of a unity or secession of South Sudan. Whether Sudan remains united or forms two countries takes an important center stage in public debates. While political parties take hard line positions on the most effective way out, the curtains are not far from closing down, as the referendum approaches.
But these are party positions, South Sudanese haven't concluded yet. To find out what they are thinking though, as it always does, AIM sets out to ask public opinion. Interviewing 250 adult South Sudanese across Lake State, in a representative survey, the findings are interesting…

5. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL
In the forthcoming referendum which of the two options: Unity or secession do you prefer to have? By Total

6. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL
Note: 97.6% for Southern Sudan Independence and 2.4% for a United Sudan

7. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL
Opinions as to the Implementation of the referendum results were seen as follows, with 48% wanting it implemented within 2 months.
Notes:
“Almost immediately” is rep. by 40%
“After 2 months” is rep. by 48%
“After 6 months” is rep. by 8%
“After 6 yrs” rep. by 4%

8. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL
South Sudanese gave various reasons for their opinions on the referendum as follows:
Secession option:
To established and develop country of their own.
To control their own resources without remote control from Khartoum.
To be in control of their own destiny through their government and parliament.
To develop a sense of their own dignity and identity.
To be out of the Arab dominance and lead their own country in view of secularism.
A united Sudan is a postponement of future civil wars with northern Arabs.
To practice total human rights and freedoms in their own country.
To establish their desired government on the base on democracy and rule of law.
The north has failed to address issues of identity, equitable share of resources and power.
To stop imposition of Arabization and Islamization against the will of South Sudanese.

9. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL
South Sudanese gave various reasons for their opinions on the referendum as follows:
Unity option:
Since we are one country, there should be no division between north and south of Sudan.
We cannot develop without northern Sudan hence one country will be an ideal option.
Secession will not solve tribal clashes in southern Sudan.
There is still hope for a united beautiful Sudan since the SPLM has failed and made itself as another oppressive regime in the South.
SPLM has serious internal squabbles that may plank South Sudan into civil war after her secession.

10. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL Voting ages
18-24yrs 15%, 25-35yrs 60%, 36-65yrs 20% and 66 & above 5%.

11. LAKE STATE OPINION POLL presentation by sex
Males respondents were 80% while females were 20%

12. POLL METHODOLOGY
The target population for this survey was all south Sudanese adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 250 respondents was drawn from Lake State and from different counties. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.4 % margin at more than 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 6th and 21st August 2010.
Data were directly collected from the ground and from the persons who filled the forms.

13. POLL METHODOLOGY…Continued
To achieve the sample for this opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) on AIM database was used. Doing this ensured geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of counties and setting (urban/rural) to match the sample structure of future polls and implicitly reflecting the distribution of population over Lake State`s Counties.
The data collection involved the use of semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options. This eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The Survey Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the forms were actually filled and if the responses given were correct to the view of the opinion-maker.

14. APPLICATION INTO REFERENDUM ACT 2009
Assumed 1,000,000 registered voters.
Minimum turnout registered voters is 60% which is 600,000 voters.
Because of high ilitracy rate, we assumed 100,000 votes may be invalid.
With only 500,000 valid votes.
Based on Lake State opinion poll, 97.6% of 500,000 is 488,000 for secession against Unity, 2.4% which may be 12,000 voters.

15. Thank You For Your Attention!
For further details Please contact: David De Dau Executive Director, Agency for Independent Media (AIM) Tel: Mobile: