1. Presenters: John Knaff and Liqun Ma April 15, 2015
SPSRB Decision Brief on Declaring “S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP) ” Operational
Presenters: John Knaff
and Liqun Ma
April 15, 2015

2. Integrated Product Team (IPT)
IPT Lead: John Knaff (STAR)
IPT Backup Lead: Liqun Ma (OSPO)
NESDIS Team:
STAR: John Knaff
OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC products PAL)
OSD: Tom Schott
NDE: Dylan Powell, Wei Yu
Data Center: Phil Jones
Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Truc Nguyen (SSAI), Scott Longmore(CIRA), John Dostalek(CIRA)
User Team
Lead: Mark DeMaria, Michael Brennan, and Jack Beven (NHC)
Brian Strahl (JTWC)
Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP

3. Requirement(s)
Meet SPSRB User Request # from National Hurricane Center
Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the S-NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation.
User community
National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Dept. of Defense
NWS Offices
Benefit to user
Continuity of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters
NOAA Mission Goal supported:
Weather and Water
Commerce and Transportation
Mission priority: Optimal
Give a high level summary of the requirement(s) being addressed by this project. If this request is supporting requirements documentation, list them along with a short summary on why it was related to this original user request. For example, this project may be addressing a SPSRB User Request. If this is the case, list the request number and a short summary of the request.
1998 – 2003 User Requests are found at in the “Archived Request List” tab in the main menu.
2004 – Present User Requests are found at To access the user request list, log or register as a new users.
If this project went through the Initial Technical Assessment and Proposal for Product Development steps within the SPSRB process, identify the date and summarize the SPSRB decision. If it did not go through these steps, eliminate these sub-bullets
Other Requirements: An example might be a user may have requested a product where the requirement is in the NPOESS IORD. Another example, is that it may support NWS’s Science and Technology Improvement Plan (STIP).
Summarize all primary and secondary users that will benefit from this product development effort.
List the NOAA mission goal(s) this product development supported. The goals are: Ecosystems, Climate, Weather and Water, and Commerce & Transportation. Goal-wide goals are: Homeland Security, NOAA Management, Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite Acquisitions, Polar Satellites Acquisitions, Satellite Services, Facilities, Administrative Services, IT Services, and Ship and Aircraft Acquisition and Operations.
Mission priority is normally found on the user request. The definitions are:
Mission Critical: Cannot meet operational mission objectives without this requirement.
Mission Optimal: Requirement not critical but would provide significant improvement to operational capability.
Mission Enhancing: Requirement needed to enhance state of knowledge or assess potential for operational capability.
AS: Updated last 4 bullets from Project Plan

4. Capabilities Assessment
Current Operational Capabilities
Requested Capabilities
Proposed Operational Capabilities
Satellite Source (s)
NOAA polar-orbiting satellites (AMSU)
S-NPP and JPSS (ATMS)
S-NPP (ATMS)
Product Name
AMSU-based TC products
ATMS-based TC products
Accuracy
Intensity MAE of 13.5 kt / 9 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively.
Same or better than current AMSU-based products.
Same as requested
Latency
3 hours after synoptic time
Timeliness
New product generated every 6 hours, updated every 2 hours
Coverage
Global
N. Atlantic and N.E. Pacific tropical cyclone basins
Resolution
Point values for intensity and radii, 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds
Other attributes

5. Product Deliverable Details
Product Type and Number
Fiscal Year (FY)
Product Delivery/Trackin g Name
Environmental Observational Parameters
Satellites
Sensors N # E R T O
Tailoring Options or Comments
FY15
S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products
Tropical cyclone maximum wind
S-NPP
ATMS 1
Formats: text
Coverage areas: global
Resolutions: N/A
Update cycle: every 6 h
minimum sea level pressure
radii of 34 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants
radii of 50 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants
radii of 64 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants
balanced horizontal winds at 1000 to 200 mb within 600 km of the storm center 2
Formats: netCDF, png
Resolutions: 0.2 degree lat/lat
Kept for reference 5
N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=Other 5

6. Project Milestones and Key Tasks
Product Delivery/Tracking Name: S-NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products
MAY 11 (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11): Development Phase Begins
MAY 11: IPT Lead informed to begin product development
MAY 11: Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets
OCT 11: NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones
JUL 12: Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected Jul 2013)
JUL 12: Initial Archive Requirements identified
JUL 12: Quality Monitoring Concept Defined
JUL 12: Long-term Maintenance Concept Defined
JUL 12: Preliminary Design Review
AUG 12: Development processing system defined
OCT 12: Test case processed
MAR 13: Critical Design Review
MAR 13: Final Archive requirements identified
APR 13: Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases)
APR 13: Code is prepared for implementation
MAY13: Software Code Review
OCT 13: Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE
DEC 13 (JUL 13) (JUN 13) (MAR 13) (MAR 13): Pre-operational Phase Begins
DEC 13: The TC DAP tested and evaluated within NDE SADIE, algorithm adjustments made
JUN 14: TC products run on the NDE System Integration for 2013/14 Atlantic hurricane season
JUN 14: Code transitions to operations; all documentation is complete
APR 15: Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status
APR 15: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational
Apr 15 (OCT 13) (OCT 13) (AUG 13) (AUG 13): Operational Phase Begins
APR 15: SPSRB declares product operational
SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages
OSD updates Satellite Products database
AS – updated “Brief SPSRB…” bullets to APR 15 6 6

8. Quality of the Product Algorithm
AMSU-based Intensity and wind radii algorithms have been running operationally at NCEP since 2003 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites).
AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites).
The algorithm will be updated to use the operational S-NPP MIRS sounding products instead of the Goldberg/Barnet statistical retrievals.
LM: Added this slide

9. Quality of the Product Core Product - TC forecast ATCF file
TC-sh142015_v1r5_npp_s _e _c _14S_FIX
SH, 14, , 30, ATMS, IPR, , 2437S, 6640E, , 1, 73, 2, 973, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , 2, 91, , S, NSOF, OPS, , , , , , , 973, , SNPP01, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 a-deck
LM: Added this slide

10. Quality of the Product
Core Product – 2-D wind
LM: Added this slide

11. Quality of the Product Verification Dataset Verification procedures
Pre-operational MIRS ATMS data from 2012 (obtained from NESDIS/STAR)
249 intensity estimates, 116/85/42 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectively
Quasi-real-time runs performed at CIRA (Aug 2014-present)
241 intensity estimates and 94/67/47 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectively
Verification procedures
Compared NTCP estimates to intensity and radii estimates in the Best Track database
Ideally use only cases with aircraft reconnaissance data, but sample too small
Best track radii estimates for WP, SH, and IO were not used due to quality issues (no aircraft reconnaissance data in those basins)
Verification results – Complete sample
Intensity (Vmax and Pmin) estimates very close to meeting goal mean absolute errors (MAE)
All radii MAE are times larger than goal
Positive biases of radii estimates suggest systematic over-prediction of R34, R50, and R64
Vmax (kt)
Pmin (hPa)
R34 (nmi)
R50 (nmi)
R64 (nmi)
MAE
13.9
9.9 42 28 27
GOAL (MAE)
13.5
10.0 32 18 10
Bias
-1.6
2.5 22 14 13 N
525
234
145 89
AS: Added this slide

12. Quality of the Product Homogeneous comparison to AMSU-based products
NTCP’s performance compared to that of operational AMSU product over a homogeneous sample
Provides a more fair comparison of the products, as AMSU validation was done over a different, larger sample
Verification Results – Homogeneous Sample
NTCP and operational AMSU mean absolute errors (MAE) for Vmax and Pmin are similar
NTC radii estimate MAE are still larger than operational AMSU product
Near-TC MIRS ATMS temperature and moisture profiles are significantly different from statistical AMSU profiles – more so than anticipated
CAL/VAL project currently underway to investigate differences in retrievals, re-derive product coefficients for ATMS MIRS, and recommend corrections to be implemented in the NTCP within the year (J. Dostalek)
Vmax (kt)
Pmin (hPa)
R34 (nmi)
R50 (nmi)
R64 (nmi)
NTCP MAE
14.6
10.2 51 35 42
AMSU MAE
13.9
9.5 29 16 22 N
311
101 60 36
AS: Added this slide

13. Quality of the Product Verification of Operational Implementation
NPP TC products generated at NDE PE-2 are compared with those produced at CIRA
The products from CIRA and NDE PE-2 are identical
LM: Added this slide
From CIRA
From OSPO

14. Plan of Operations Product Retirement Plan Archive Plan
No products will be retired as a result of transition to operations of NTCP product
Archive Plan
NTCP products in ATCF format will be archived at NHC/JTWC
NTCP products in NetCDF will be archived at NCDC.
Documentation Update
CIRA delivered ATBD, SMM and EUM
OSPD modified them with OSPO NDE operational environments

15. Plan of Operations Long Term Maintenance Plan
Science support of product provided by CIRA Scientists
24 x 7 technical support of product generation, distribution, and monitoring to be provided by OSPO NDE support personnel
Quality Monitoring Plan
The NTCP Product files include overall quality control flags and quality summary level metadata
NDE Products Monitoring Tool will be available soon.
The NPP TC algorithm does not have automatic product monitoring tools. Users from NHC, JTWC and developers from CIRA will keep watch on this product closely, especially during hurricane season.

16. User Readiness (1/2) Data Access
Real-time data (ATCF) will be put on NDE DDS for NHC/CPHC/JTWC users.
Real-time data (ATCF) and images are also provided to users on the ESPC ftp site ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/TCFP/NTCP
Real-time data (NetCDF) will be sent to NCDC by NDE DDS

17. User Readiness (2/2) Acceptance of Product Training NHC, CPHC, JTWC
Already use AMSU-TC product generated from NCEP.
Already reviewed test data.
Training
User manuals will be made available to all users
NHC/CPHC/JTWC
No specific training from OSPO is required. Users have been using current AMSU TC product for years.
ESPC Operator
Training has been provided by NDE team for monitoring the NDE system

18. Satellite Product End-to-End Documentation System (SPEEDS)
Product Name: S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products
Projected Date to Go Operational: May, 2015
Product Description: The S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based TC Products algorithm provides estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and surface wind radii for 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind thresholds. Intensity and structure estimates are calculated from a combination of ATMS-based temperature and moisture soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics.
Product System: S-NPP Data Exploitation (NDE)
Platform: NDE PE-1
Satellite(s): S-NPP
Instrument(s) used: ATMS
Channels: N/A
Horizontal Resolution: 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds
Vertical Resolution: N/A
Frequency: every 6 hours at synoptic times , updated every 2 hours
Coverage: Global
Accuracy: Intensity MAE of 14.0 kt / 10 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 42, 65, 68 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively.
Formats: ATCF and NetCDF
Web Page: N/A
Product Oversight Panel: ICAPOP
Users: NHC/JTWC
Archive: NCDC
AS: Updated accuracy, channels N/A (uses sounder)

19. SPSRB User Request Status
Has the SPSRB user request been fully satisfied?
TC intensity estimates(Vmax and Pmin) are satisfied
radii coefficients will be corrected before the start of the Atlantic
hurricane season (June 1st, 2015).

20. SPSRB Decision General comments User input
STAR senior representative input
OSPO senior representative input
OSD senior representative input
Consensus decision reached?
Yes: summarize decision
No: summarize direction
IPT should not fill out this slide. It’s a place holder for the SPSRB decision.