1. The State of the Church in Southern California 1990-2000
Dave Olson
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Southern California, and what the complete “State of the Church in Southern California” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Southern California that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in Southern California Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Southern California?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Southern California will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in Southern California has an average church attendance percentage (16.8%) lower than the national average (18.7%). California’s average is 14.8%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

7. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Southern California.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
17.8%
San Luis Obispo
13.6%
Kern
16.2%
San Bernardino
16.7%
Santa Barbara
13.7%
Ventura
16.5%
Los Angeles
16.3%
Riverside
20.7%
Orange
Southern California
Counties
2000 Christian Church
Attendance
as a Percentage
of Population 2000
Maroon = Higher
Blue = Lower
15.8%
San Diego
20.4%
Imperial
13.6% to 17.6%
17.6% to 21.6%
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county in Southern California. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
142,361
Imperial
246,681
San Luis Obispo
399,347
Santa Barbara
661,645
Kern
753,197
Ventura
1,545,387
Riverside
1,709,434
San Bernardino
2,813,833
San Diego
2,846,289
Orange
9,519,338
Los Angeles
Southern California
Counties
2000 Population
0 to 1,000,000
1,000,000 to 9,519,339
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The 2 Next Slides
show the ethnicity of all of California in 1990 and The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Southern California in 1990 and All groups have increased in attendance over the last decade except the Mainline churches. However, as overall worship attendance has increased, the population has grown as well. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant increase in the percentage of the population attending all Christian churches and Catholic churches. Mainline churches have decreased significantly and Evangelicals have remained even with population growth.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Southern California in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

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The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 9 major denominational groups in Southern California. The first chart illustrates the huge influence of the Catholic church in Southern California. The next two charts shows the significant decline of all denominational families in Southern California, with the exception of the Pentecostal, Catholics and Three Sisters churches.
(The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both the whole state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for the whole state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church. Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest at 411 people per church, while Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Southern California in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
5.2%
Imperial
5.6%
Ventura
6.0%
San Diego
6.1%
Los Angeles
6.2%
Santa Barbara
7.8%
San Luis Obispo
8.3%
Riverside
8.8%
Kern
8.9%
San Bernardino
9.4%
Orange
Southern California
Counties
2000 Catholic Church
Attendance
as a Percentage
of Population 2000
Beige = Highest
Maroon = Middle
Blue = Lowest
0.0% to 5.3%
5.3% to 6.3%
6.3% to 10.6%
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 6 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 4 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Southern California between 1990 and For evangelicals, 6 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 4 counties declined. For Mainline churches, 0 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 10 counties declined. For Catholics, 7 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 3 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
30.2%
San Luis Obispo
-16.2%
Kern
14.3%
San Bernardino
35.5%
Santa Barbara
-25.4%
Ventura
4.0%
Los Angeles
6.9%
Riverside
24.3%
Orange
Southern California Counties
Growth or
Decline in Percentage
of the Population at
Worship in Catholic
Churches on a
Given Weekend
26.0%
San Diego
-10.7%
Imperial
Decline
Growth
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches in Southern California in the past decade. There was a net gain of 468 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Southern California, there would have needed to have been a net gain of 1353 churches from
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

41. The State of the Church in Southern California . . .
Southern California is one of the few parts of the country that has seen growth in the percentage of the population attending church. This is a result of three factors: the migration of Hispanics to Southern California; the growth of evangelical mega-churches; and a solid church planting effort. Even with this growth, Southern California’s percentage in church is still significantly lower than the national average.
Traditionally, Catholics have been influential in Southern California. Hispanic immigration has increased that influence, with the percentage of the population attending Catholic churches increasing by 9%.
A important factor to consider for evangelicals is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Southern California. The growth of mega-churches plus the new churches just barely kept up with Southern California’s population growth. To grow faster than population growth in the next decade, more new churches will be needed.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
For More Information . . .
Please go to for additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
The complete Southern California Powerpoint presentation is available at
The Complete Los Angeles Powerpoint presentation is available at
The Complete Orange County Powerpoint presentation is available at County.htm
The Complete San Diego Powerpoint presentation is available at
The Complete Ventura/Santa Barbara Powerpoint presentation is available at
The Complete Inland Empire Powerpoint presentation is available at
A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Southern California, Los Angeles, Orange County & Inland Empire Powerpoints) is available at
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

43. Information on the Information
The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
For More Information . . .
Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please him at
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use