1. Russia-China relations in Central Asia and the SCO
Prepared for the conference Regional Perspectives for China and its Neighbours, Leiden University, the Confucius Institute, 5-6 Jan. 2017
Mikhail A. Molchanov
Russia-China relations in Central Asia and the SCO

2. Research questions What is the basis of Sino-Russian cooperation?
Is there any pattern to the SCO evolution?
What are the challenges to the Sino-Russian leadership of the SCO?
What is the SCO impact on Central Asia and the larger Eurasian region?
What are the most likely scenarios for the SCO evolution?
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

3. Theories and definitions
Regionalism in Eurasia is
Politically steered, top-down process
Economic, political (re)integration of the postcommunist states under the Sino-Russian leadership
Reaction to economic and security challenges
As much about identity as it is about political economy
Theories
IR realism: an update on classic alliance politics; Russia’s efforts neoimperialist in nature
IR liberalism: a stepping stone to a global market
NR (Hettne; Shaw/Söderbaum): response to globalization; “third wave”; alternative to neoliberalism
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

4. SCO’s emergence and growth
From confidence building measures - the “Shanghai Five” forum
Russia led the post-Sov states, had know-how
Since 2001 (SCO) - combating terrorism, separatism and extremism
2004 summit – PRC allocates $1bln to the region
2008 SCO Dialogue Partners created
– economic strategy developed
2015- SCO Development Strategy Towards 2025
2016 – India, Pakistan. Iran?
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

5. Russo-Chinese relations today
China – main trading partner for RF (2014)
Oil deals totaling 665 mln tons over 25 yrs
CNPC buys 20% in Yamal LNG project, expands its holdings in oil and gas fields in E. Siberia
Ukraine sped Russia’s “pivot to the East”
Gas deals alone valued at > $684 billion
Xi Jinping: Asian security arrangt with RF, Iran
Yet 28% trade drop in 2015, +0.5% in 2016
Skewed trade; RF high-tech weapons only
Mistrust persists on the popular, elite levels
Demography; FP disconnect; stalled energy deals
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

6. SCO: The leadership problem
RATS functions since 2004, but not very effective; concerns over Afghanistan
SCO-CSTO collaboration not institutionalized
How to lead the region?
PRC: economic cooperation, RF: security
PRC lobbies for FTA; Russia opposes
Russia stalled the SCO Development Bank
Silk Road Economic Belt: $48 bln to C. Asia
Ufa summit (2015): SCO-BRICS cooperation?
Putin’s “Big Eurasian Partnership” (OBOR, EAEU, SCO and ASEAN) yields to China’s agenda
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

7. Eurasian regionalism: pros & cons
New regionalism is a cushion in crises of global capitalism
Becomes a factor in provision of regional security
Helps unify regional elites
Focus on common values (Eastern Orthodoxy-Islam): collectivism, statism, equity, and community
Joint opposition to the U.S., neolib-m, humanitarian intervention, R2P
Bolsters legitimacy of non-democratic governments; helps regimes’ survival
Needs a developmental state to be successful
May foster regional rivalry and neohegemonic tendencies
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

8. Conclusions SCO dual leadership is yet to be developed
SCO is not an alliance or coalition
Competition in Central Asia
Geopolitical disconnect: S. Ossetia and Abkhazia vs S. and E. China seas
Russia’s influence in Central Asia is on decline
SCO was of little help with bilateral border demarcation in C. Asia
C. Asians use SCO to balance btn RF and PRC
SCO enables China’s peaceful rise, regl dev’t
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

9. Thank you!
Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada