1. Regional security and conflicts in the Baltic region
Dr David Galbreath
University of Bath
ReSET Winter School, Ukraine

2. Introduction About me and my work on the region
Overview of the Baltic States
Understanding regional security
Factors in Baltic security
Ethnic politics in the Baltic States
Domestic features
International factors
Conclusion

3. About me
Work on Baltic-Russian, Baltic-EU, EU-Russian relations, role of IOs in Baltic States

4. Overview of the Baltic States
What do you know about the Baltic States?
What do you think about the Baltic States?
Baltic history and historiography
Independence
End of Cold War
Triple transition:
democratization,
marketization
de-Sovietization

5. Social Constructivism
Key elements:
Securitisation as a speech-act (language theory)
Force of word “security”
Security and threats: neither subjective nor objective but rather intersubjective
Widens the security agenda
Opposite to the rationalist, objectivist theories
Focus on ideas, identities, perceptions, beliefs
Securitisation: moderate constructivist approach
Regional Security complexes
See next page

6. Understanding Regional Security
Regional Security Complex Theory
Buzan People, States and Fear 1991
Buzan and Wæver Regions and Powers 2003
Regions are largely contained units
Conflicts are usually regional
States behave based on
Empirical and verifiable
Perception and image 2003

7. European security complex

8. Social Constructivism
In post-Cold War Europe:
Salience of regional security
Region as unit of analysis
Regional Security
Degree of autonomy from systemic level
Degree of interdependence
Regionally based clusters of security

9. Social constructivism and Security
Sector
Military
Political
Economic
Societal
Environ-mental
Object
State’s
sovereignty/
territorial
integrity
Government’s
recognition/
legitimacy
economy?
Nation’s
identity/
culture
Local and
planetary
biosphere
Threat
Military attack
Coup d’etat/
secessionism
Closing access
to external
resources?/
Embargoes?/
protectionism?
/monopoly?
Migration/
assimilation
/prohibition to
practice one’s
religion, etc.
Pollution/
depletion of
nat. resources

10. Social Constructivism
Summary of Social Constructivism
Context of its development
Questions the definition of security
Adds new dimension to theoretical debate
Allows for widening of agenda
Highlights importance of regions

11. Ethnic politics in the Baltic States
Minority
Migrant
Manipulator?

12. Contextual Introduction
Russians, Russian-speakers and non-citizens in the Baltic States
Historical minorities in the Baltic States
Soviet (im)migration
Post-Soviet demographics
The ‘Russian’ question

13. Russians, Russian-speakers and non-citizens in the Baltic States
These are often overlapping groups of people but are not the same in real terms
Russians: ethnically Russian
Russian-speakers: Many different groups that speak Russian as their mother tongue or at least in everyday social situations.
Non-citizens: Those who are not automatically eligible for citizenship based on when they came to the Baltic States

14. Historical minorities in the Baltic States
Historically, the Baltic States have had minorities, which generally have come in two forms
‘Landlords’: like Germans, Danes, Swedes, Poles and later Russians.
‘Co-ethnics’: like Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Livu, Setu, Poles, Russians, and Belarussians

15. Soviet (im)migration Russians in the Baltic States 1935 1989 Estonia4%
33%
Latvia
11%
45%
Lithuania 2% 9%

16. Post-Soviet Demographics
Why such large Russian migration?
Industry
Collective Farming
Social Control
Replacements for depopulated population
Second World War
Soviet ‘classicide’
Deportations East
Immigration West

17. The ‘Russian’ question after 1991
What is to be done with these Soviet* Russians among us?
Two approaches to incorporating Soviet* Russians into the new states
Inclusion: Lithuania made citizenship automatic for all those who had been permanent residents for 10 years.
Exclusion: Estonia and Latvia required language fluency and a civic commitment for citizenship

18. Estonia and Latvia in focus
Citizenship
Estonia: open process, residents could vote (local)
Latvia: closed process, no voting
Changes: Both altered their citizenship law for children in 1998 (Latvia opened their process)
Language: Russian is not an official language
Education
Estonia: Still waiting
Latvia: 60/40 Latvian education for Russians (2004)

19. Minorities, Migrants and Manipulators
What does all of this mean for the way we see Russian-speakers?
Minorities, Migrants and Manipulators
Why does it matter?
Russian foreign policy
Western involvement (EU, Council of Europe, OSCE)
Reflect on the way we all relate to ‘our’ minorities

20. The Minority Discourse
Defining the ‘national minority’ (Jackson-Preece)
‘A group numerically inferior to the rest of the population of a state, in a non-dominant position, well-defined and historically established on the territory of the state, whose members – being nationals of the state – posses ethnic, religious, linguistic or cultural characteristics differing from those of the rest of the population and show, if only implicitly, a sense of solidarity, directed towards preserving their culture, traditions, religion, or language. ‘

21. The Minority Discourse
What is the responsibility of a majority within a democratic state regarding a minority?
Inclusion
Paths to policy-making
Interests representation
Equal opportunities
Cultural protection, group rights
Consociationalism?
Veto?

22. The Migrant Discourse Defining a migrant (UNESCO):
‘Any person who lives temporarily or permanently in a country where he or she was not born, and has acquired some significant social ties to this country.’
What does this mean for those Russian-speakers born in the Baltic States but during the Soviet period (some of which could be 60+ years old)?

23. The Migrant Discourse
What is the responsibility of the majority in a democratic state regarding a migrant community?
Level of basic care
Social integration
Paths to naturalization
Few or no group rights

24. The Manipulator Discourse
Post-imperial minorities as ‘manipulators’
What makes them ‘manipulators’?
Contested loyalties
Link to the former colonising state
An imperial culture
Politically contentious
Group entrance but no group exit

25. The Manipulator Discourse
What is the responsibility of the majority in a democratic state regarding a post-imperial minority community?
Level of basic care
Paths to loyalty

26. Where do the Baltic States sit?
Minority, Migrant or Manipulator? It depends.
Generally, the Baltic governments have situated Russian-speakers between ‘migrant’ and ‘manipulator’
Level of basic care
Social integration as a loyalty test
Few group rights (e.g. Education)

27. The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses
Minorities:
European organizations see them as minorities
EU (e.g. race equality directive)
Council of Europe (e.g. FCNM)
OSCE (e.g. HCNM)
Russia sees them as minorities
Russian calls for ‘fair’ treatment
Russian-speakers see themselves as minorities
Calls for cultural protection

28. The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses
Migrants:
Often Baltic officials publically describe them as migrants.
The social integration programmes are predicated on such an ingroup-outgroup understanding.
Erosion of basic cultural rights (e.g. Education)

29. The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses
Manipulators
Practical policy implications
Latvian 1994 citizenship law
Social integration by generational replacement
The majority perceptions of ‘manipulator’ disaffect Russian-speakers, making any ‘minority’ or ‘migrant’ led approach more difficult.