1. Aberdeenshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
Aberdeenshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Aberdeenshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Borders Angus and Perth and Kinross to the south, Highland and Moray to the west and Aberdeen City to the east
An area of historically strong employment opportunities but affected by the challenges of oil and gas downturn
Strong economic interaction with Aberdeen City
Primary industries important in many parts of the area

9. Business Trends
Business base growth was below the Scottish rate 2014 – 2015 (4.5% v. 7.3%) - as it was in the previous year
+605 businesses including: Professional, scientific & technical (+235), Business administration & support services (+125) and Arts, entertainment, etc. (+55)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
25 businesses employ 250+ people (0.2% of total)
Business density is above the national rate (540 per 10,000 population v. 313)
Self employment rate very similar to Scotland (10.9% v. 10.8%)
The number of businesses in Growth Sectors grew by 3% to 8,195 in A higher representation than nationally
39% of Aberdeenshire employment is in Growth Sectors - higher than across Scotland (28%)
Highly specialised in Food and Drink and Energy businesses

10. Population and Projections
Population of 261,960 in 2015
5% of Scotland’s total population
Population growth over the year was the same as in Scotland (0.5%)
Between 2005 and 2015 total population rose by 10% - twice the rate in Scotland (5%)
Aberdeenshire growth includes a relatively large increase in working age population
Population change :
Forecast Population Growth :
Total population forecast to increase by 17% - almost twice that for Scotland (9%)
Aberdeenshire working age population projected to increase by 4% in contrast to fall (4%) in Scotland

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Aberdeenshire = 105,600 (4% of Scottish total)
3.8% increase over the last year. Lower than in the region (5.2%) but higher than Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
44% work in higher level occupations in 2015, slightly higher than Scotland (42%)
84% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
28% of the employed population work part time, slightly above Scotland average (26%)
2.4% of employees are in non-permanent jobs (Scotland 5.3%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
Aberdeenshire employment rate is 81% - higher than Scotland (73%) in 2015
57% of Aberdeenshire residents work in the local authority area
A further 40% work in Aberdeen City
The remaining 3% of residents work outside the region - mostly in Angus or Moray
The unemployment rate in Aberdeenshire was below the national average (2% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -1.6ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
93% of year olds in Aberdeenshire are participating in 2016, 3ppt above the Scottish rate. Some 2% are not participating (Scotland 4%)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 45%, a higher proportion of working age adults in Aberdeenshire hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%) and the UK (37%) in 2015
Both workplace earnings (£533) and residents’ earnings (£575) are above the Scottish average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 14,273, 5.1% of Scotland total
95% of school leavers enter a positive destination, compared to 92% nationally
Modern Apprenticeship (MA) uptake fell by 14% to 1,085
4% of national total in 2015/16
Engineering most popular MA framework group
18% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 91% male
75% MA achievement rate in 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at North East Scotland College there were 21,475 enrolments
8% of Scotland’s total
79% FE and 21% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Engineering, Business Admin, Computing & ICT
Part-time: Care, Engineering, Languages & ESOL
67% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 30,000 students at the three HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
HE/FE data is available at Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire regional level only, comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate expected for Scotland as a whole. Within the region. Professional, scientific and technical activities and construction are expected to enjoy growth of 1,700 jobs and 1,200 jobs respectively over the forecast. Administrative and support activities (900 jobs) along with wholesale and retail trade sector (400 jobs each) are also expected to grow. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and mining sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 1,800 over the forecast, and those in mining, by 800 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Aberdeenshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 36,100 openings within Aberdeenshire over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to increase by 2,100 between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 38,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional occupations, driven mainly by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in elementary occupations and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period again driven largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Aberdeenshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
Rather surprisingly, jobs growth in Aberdeenshire evident since 2010 continued in 2015, at a time when there were significant job losses in neighbouring Aberdeen City and no increases at the Scotland level. There were 1,000 more jobs in the Shire in 2015 when compared to 2014.
What is clear is that there have been shifts within the region. Whilst more than 10,000 production jobs were lost in 2015 in Aberdeen City, they increased by 1,000 in Aberdeenshire, as oil and gas companies have sought to reduce costs. There was also an increase in professional, scientific & technical services (+900).
There are other sector shifts, there have been job losses in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-800), business administration & support (-600), construction (-400) and retail (-300). Accommodation and food services jobs increased (+600).
The business base continues to grow, although now at rate slower than the Scotland average. Output growth has also slowed. Forecasts indicate output and employment growth in line with the Scotland average with jobs growth in professional, scientific & technical service sectors, construction and administration, but losses in oil and gas and manufacturing.
Glasgow

20. Aberdeenshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
Strong population growth is forecast to continue, and at 17% to 2037 this will be twice the Scotland growth rate. Some 40% commute into Aberdeen City; whilst there are short-term job gains due to relocations, a prolonged downturn in the oil and gas sector will start to negatively affect those living in Aberdeenshire.
More are employed as professional than the Scotland average, and in skilled trades in manufacturing and agriculture. Replacement demand will offer the greatest number of openings to 2024, highest in professional occupations, sales & customer service, and elementary posts. A challenge for Aberdeenshire is to continue growth in the professional services with the downturn in oil and gas to avoid retreating towards a low pay low value added traditional rural economy.
Almost a third go into Further Education from school, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – engineering & energy, construction, health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services.
Glasgow

21. Aberdeenshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Aberdeenshire include:
Increasing the number of local jobs – despite some short-term job increases as a result of oil and gas sector changes, most sectors saw job losses in 2015.
Increasing the quality of jobs – many in professional occupations work in Aberdeen City, and growing professional services locally that are not reliant on oil and gas will help avoid the dominance of traditional manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate in the area, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers – there remain important local sectors and occupations, including manufacturing, business services, health, care, sales & customer services and skilled trades. Local skills activity must continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow