1. NUCLEATION PROGRAM PRESENTATION
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2. 1. The Point
2. ICPM
Basis of orchestration
Methods of project management

3. 1. THE POINT
Understanding what the plant can and can’t do before it’s built
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4. ”
During development, a plant’s operational and financial behavior is, really, unknown, Material risks, immanent and tacit, lurk at the interface between knowledge and ignorance. Those risks must be corralled, if not emasculated, through an understanding of the physics underlying the behavior of the plant, and its impact on the asset’s revenue generation potential.
Steven Keays (2016)

5. The root of a plant’s physical risks
Lies in complexity arising from coupled effects
Why bother with nucleation? Because the business of technology is risky and characterized by machine risks. The bigger the plant, the more complex its behavior, the riskier its character. Notwithstanding the widespread practice of risk management in the project world, real-world equipment failures will keep on occurring, processes will routinely go awry, black swans will appear, and liability costs will accrue.
There is no such thing as a simple system lending itself to sequential build-up without consideration of coupling effects. Engineered projects are inherently and inescapably complex, imperviously of scale. Without nucleation, the results of traditional risk analysis INCREASE the financial risks of the plant, on account of the false sense of security that they foster.
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6. Nucleation models a plant’s profitability
2. CONCEPTS
Nucleation models a plant’s profitability
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7. The nucleation works THE NEED THE POINT THE TIMING TRIAD
Forming a new structure within a self-organizing systemic behavior
THE NEED
Modelling the theoretical state of an asset. The model simulates the plant’s operational and financial behavior, from which are inferred the design limits, the risk profiles, the operation details and the profitability performance.
THE POINT
The future asset is a mountain of risks until proven otherwise. Risks, immanent and tacit, lurk at the interface between knowledge and ignorance. They are revealed through an understanding of the physics underlying the plant’s behavior, and its impact on its profitability.
THE TIMING
Nucleation takes place once the plant is designed. This work can only take place starting in Lifecycle Phase 5 and continues until the asset is in full operation.
Nucleation involves three knowledge domain. These domains are called engineering nucleation, information nucleation and operational nucleation. Together, they yield an integrated set of data, models and simulations that can be relied upon to run the future asset.
TRIAD

8. Engineering nucleation
Making physics make money
This is a hard-core engineering endeavor that goes beyond canned code-checking software. Its aim is to model numerically the physical behavior of the plant. The objective is to understand the limits of this behavior up, to black swan scenarios.
The outcome is a comprehensive set of models, simulations, behavioral limit tables and fail/safe criteria that quantify the operations of the plant under normal, abnormal and extraordinary conditions. The results may also result in changes to the design of the plant, changes that could send the project execution back to Phases 1 to 6 for rework and redress. These numerical models will include:
System-level full physics modelling
Installation-level non-linear behavior modeling
Quantitative risk assessments
Failure-containment studies
Lifecycle cost (LCC) modeling
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9. Information nucleation
Getting a handle on the mass of generated data
The conceptualization phases produce a gargantuan volume of data, documents, information and numeric records, across a bevy of formats and media. The objective of information nucleation is to orchestrate this mass of information into a singular framework tied to the internet of things.
Model-centric architecture
Googlelize the entire set of data and information associated with the asset through a datum architecture that is centered on the 3D model kernel of the asset.
The model is a computer rendering of the physical features of every component, machine, system and installation making up the plant.
The 3D model is stored in the plant vault.
Access
The vault must be accessible by any authorized person from anywhere, at any time.
It can be locally hosted or deployed on the Cloud.
It goes without saying that this access should be through a web browser with an emphasis on an intuitive user-graphic interface.
Maintenance management
The operating plant will generate a steady stream of dynamic data from the machines and systems in operations, in real time.
Reliability and availability data will also be derived, over time, on these machines and systems.
It is critically important to enable the vault to automatically gather these datum streams to compare them with the LCMM data obtained from the engineering nucleation phase.
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10. Operational nucleation
Modeling the resource requirements
This nucleation closes the loop on the modeling of the asset. Whereas engineering and information nucleations are specific to the physical plant, operational nucleation seeks to simulate the resources involved in the operation of the asset (note here the switch from plant). Staffing requirements are established; training needs are specified; regular maintenance plans and schedule derivatives are created; sparing, consumable and inventory levels are set; personnel and materiel movements are quantified; emergency responses are designed; and economic performance estimates are compiled to gauge the theoretical profitable metrics of the asset and assess the corresponding nameplate risk.
The outcome of this nucleation is a large dataset from which the commercial business plan for the asset is drafted.
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11. Information nucleation
Making physics make money
The conceptualization phases produce a gargantuan volume of data, documents, information and numeric records, across a bevy of formats and media. The objective of information nucleation is to orchestrate this mass of information into a singular framework tied to the internet of things. This is the trust behind information nucleation, which occurs along three interwoven threads: model-centric architecture, access and integrated maintenance management.
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