1. Global Macroeconomic Outlook: The Race is On
Association of International Credit & Trade Finance Professionals
Tuesday, 19 April, 2016 Chicago, Illinois
Stuart Bergman Deputy Chief Economist and Director,
Economic and Political Intelligence Centre

2. Terminal Velocity EDC Economics’ Commodity Price Index (2004-2008 avg
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics

3. Currency Crash Commodity-Linked Currencies Follow Suit
Sources: Haver Analytics, MSCI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

4. Fear is here! CBOE Market Volatility Index, VIX
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Haver Analytics

5. Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100)
The Great Recession
Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100)
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, IMF, Haver Analytics

6. Public Sector Response
Quantitative Easing
Cash injection
Bailouts
Interest rate cuts
Source: EDC Economics

7. Now That’s a Balance Sheet
Now That’s a Balance Sheet! Total Assets of the Federal Reserve (USD, millions)
QE III
QE II
QE I
Sources: Federal Reserve Board

8. Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100)
V-Shaped Recovery?
Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100)
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, IMF, Haver Analytics

9. Housing starts, requirements, balance (SAAR, ‘000 units)
US Pent Up Demand
Housing starts, requirements, balance (SAAR, ‘000 units)
Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, Haver Analytics

10. US Employment: Going critical?
Unemployment rate (%), employment change (‘000)
Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, Haver Analytics

11. Impact of Oil Prices
Sources: EDC Economics

12. US Consumers: Is there a problem
US Consumers: Is there a problem? Inflation-adjusted retail sales (USD, millions)
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Haver Analytics

13. Private Sector Investment: Spot the drag
Nonresidential Investment (SAAR, Chn.2009$), % chg. Y/Y
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics

14. Construction Spending Resurgence
Value of private construction put in place (index 2011=100)
Sources: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

15. Manufacturing Capacity Crunch
Capacity utilization (% of previous peak)
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

16. Divergent impact on manufacturers (SA, >50 = expansion)
Tale of a Strong Dollar
Divergent impact on manufacturers (SA, >50 = expansion)
Sources: Markit, Nikkei, ISM, Haver Analytics

17. EU 28 export volumes to the US (SWDA, 2010 = 100)
Tale of a Strong Dollar
EU 28 export volumes to the US (SWDA, 2010 = 100)
US$ 1.48/€
Sources: Statistical Office of the European Communities, Haver Analytics

18. A Good Sign for Future Investment?
EA 19 capital goods orders (SWDA, 2010 = 100)
Sources: European Central Bank, Haver Analytics

19. Public Sector Response
Quantitative Easing
Cash injection
Bailouts
Interest rate cuts
Source: EDC Economics

20. LME copper ($/tonne), WTI ($/barrel)
Follow the Cash
LME copper ($/tonne), WTI ($/barrel)
Sources: EIA, CME, LME, Haver Analytics

21. 17 December, 2015
We have ‘liftoff’

22. Crude Reality?
WTI ($/barrel)
Sources: EIA, CME, Haver Analytics

23. Developing Markets: Feeling the pain
Annual GDP growth (%)
Sources: EDC Economics, IMF WEO

24. The Race is On

25. Opportunities Abound: Canadian Emerging Market potential
Emerging market rank*
(1 = best)
Market risk
rank
(1 = lowest risk)
Market demand
(1 = highest demand)
Market competitiveness
(1 = highest competitiveness)
Canadian capabilities
(1 = highest capabilities)
Overall index rank
Malaysia 1 26 9 13 31 7
China 2 52 4 44 22
United Arab Emirates 3 35 69 37 23
Thailand 42 36 33 18 25
Poland 5 28 39 47
*Excluding Mexico
Sources: EDC Economics

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