1. New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific
Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff - NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO
Charles Sampson - NRLMRY, Monterey, CA
Andrea B. Schumacher and Laurel Kessler - CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
USPACOM Tropical Cyclone Conference, Tokyo, Japan, 3-5 April 2012
Introduction
The Rapid Intensification Index
ATCF Implementation Schedule
JTWC intensity errors show little improvement (see Fig. 1)
Best operational intensity models are statistical (S511, ST10, ST11)
Improved statistical models available in the Atlantic
(SHIPS, LGEM, RII)
SHIPS, LGEM have limited skill for rapid intensification cases
RII provides probability of wind increase of 30 kt or greater in next 24 hours
Discriminant analysis procedure using subset of SHIPS predictors most related to RI
Obtain 6-h GFS GRIB files (completed)
Develop IR reader (completed)
Generate IR database for testing (completed)
Produce NWP files in SHIPS format (completed)
Finalize 2012 Western Pacific SHIPS, LGEM, RII algorithms (Apr. 15)
Implement in objective aid run (May 15)
Real time tests (June-Dec.)
Post season evaluation (Jan. 2013)
-Coordination with GOES-R Pacific Region Proving Ground
Adaptations for the Western North Pacific
Fig 1. JTWC Intensity Errors (From Falvey, 2012 IHC Presentation).
Summary of the 2011 Western Pacific/Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Season.
Available from
Ocean Heat Content from NCODA instead of satellite altimetry
IR imagery from MT-SAT instead of GOES
development sample
Future Plans
Preliminary Tests
Lightning input to RII for the 2013 season (see Fig. 4)
Run to 7 days (2013 season)
Possible new satellite predictors GOES-R and JPSS Proving Ground demos
The SHIPS and LGEM models
Run WPAC cases with operational input
- Not completely independent, but close
Compare with STSD and ST11
Fig. 3 shows encouraging results
SHIPS is multiple regression model with input from GFS forecasts, SST analyses, GOES infrared (IR) imagery, satellite altimetry
LGEM uses SHIPS input in more general prediction system
Atlantic statistical intensity models have improved since 1991 (see Fig. 2)
Fig 4. Six hour lightning locations from a ground based lightning network (WWLLN) ending at 00 UTC on 26 Aug 2010 overlaid on a GOES IR image. 100 km range rings are also shown. Statistical analysis shows that enhanced lightning activity in the 100 to 300 km annulus is correlated with the onset of rapid intensification
Fig 3. Mean absolute error for WPAC forecasts for operational ST5D, ST11, JTWC and SHIPS, LGEM hindcasts
Fig 2. Atlantic Statistical-Dynamical Intensity Errors (From DeMaria, 2012 IHC Presentation).
Available from
Acknowledgements
SHIPS
D-SHIPS
LGEM
Funding for this project was provided by the National Oceanic Partnership Program (NOPP), the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) and the NOAA GOES-R Risk Reduction Project.