1. Agricultural Inputs and Land Values
Bryon J. Parman, Ph.d.
Mississippi State University
Department of Agricultural Economics
Mississippi State Extension Service

2. Fuels Markets
Greenville Ag. Diesel
Birmingham, AL

3. Fertilizer Costs, National Averages

4. Cost per Lb. of Nitrogen

5. Cost for K/Potash

6. Yearly Average Phosphate Prices $/Metric Ton

7. Seed Price Index

8. Self Propelled Equipment Index

9. National Animal Feed Price Index

14. Historical Percentage Changes in Ag. Land Values
1980’s Crash
Would take an 11%/year growth rate for 5 years
To recover from a 40% drop
Great Depression

16. 11th Federal Reserve District (Texas)

17. Land Values in the 10th Federal Reserve District (OK, KS, RMT’s, Neb, Mizzou)

18. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Ag. Finance Monitor, Q1 2017

19. Volume of Farmland Sales from the
10th Federal Reserve District

20. Mississippi Ag. Lender Survey

21. Mississippi Land Sales Values in $/Acre
Average
Min
Max
Delta Dryland
$3,287
$2,500
$4,000
Delta Irrigated
$4,653
$3,500
$5,500
Non-Delta Dryland
$2,625
$1,600
$3,800
Non-Delta Irrigated
$3,119
Pastureland
$2,309
$1,500
Data From:
Mississippi Farm
Financial
Professionals Annual
Survey, May 2017

22. Mississippi State Land Survey’s 2015-2017 Land Sales Values in $/Acre
Region
2015
2016
*2017
Delta Dryland
3,163
3,176
3,287
Delta Irrigated
4,639
4,545
4,453
Non-Delta Dry
2,457
2,417
2,625
Non-Delta Irrigated
3,061
3,058
3,119
Pasture
2,455
1,803
2,309
% Change within survey margin of error

23. MSU Survey Timber Land Values in $/Acre
2017 Data
Average
Minimum
Maximum
Mature Pine
2,392
1,000
3,300
Mature Hardwood
2,250
3,500
Year
2015
2016
2017
Mature Pine
2,300
2,069
2,392
Mature Hardwood
2,545
2,470
2,250

25. New Housing Starts since 1980

26. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Ag. Finance Monitor, Q1 2017

27. Cash Rents in the 10th Federal Reserve District

28. Cash Rents in the 11th Federal Reserve District

29. Mississippi Land Cash Rents in $/Acre
Average
Min
Max
Delta Dryland
$112
$85
$175
Delta Irrigated
$173
$140
$225
Non-Delta Dryland
$78
$50
$165
Non-Delta Irrigated
$132
$100
$185
Pastureland
$28
$20

30. Mississippi State Land Survey’s 2015-2017 Cash Rents in $/Acre
Region
2015
2016
*2017
Delta Dryland
124
117
112
Delta Irrigated
191
176
172
Non-Delta Dry
105 79
Non-Delta Irrigated
145
132
Pasture 34 31 28
% Change within survey margin of error

31. Recently Historic Cap-rates & ROE
Rent And Sales Value
Cap Rate
Return on Equity
Mississippi 2015 (Delta Irrigated)
$ $4,600
4.1%
(-3.9%)
W.C. Indiana 2013 (Poor)
$ $7,500
2.9%
(-5.11%)
Indiana 2013
$ $5,600
3.1%
(-4.9%)
Rent needed for Even
ROE Indiana 2013
$336.42/Acre
Band of Investment Formula
****Assuming 75% on Rm and 25% on Re…..Implies a mortgage constant at 5% interest of

32. Farmland Area/Type
Land Value
Cash Rent
ROE
Delta Irr
(Break Even)
$4,453
($2,686)**
$172
($267)*
-8.3%
Delta, Non-Irr
$3,287 ($1,867)**
$112
($197)*
-10%
Non-Delta, Irr
$3,119
($2,134)**
$128
($187)*
-7.3%
Non-Delta, Non-Irr
$2,625
($1,300)**
$78
($157)*
-12%
Pasture Land
$2,309
($473)**
$28.33
($138)*
-19%

33. Summary Input Costs Land – Sales mostly flat Seed – Leveling off
Rents Coming Down
Seed – Leveling off
Fertilizer – Leveling off, or falling for some fertilizers
Equipment – Leveling off
When rent is included, costs exceed revenues in most southeastern ag. enterprises in

34. Thank You Bryon J. Parman Mississippi State University
Department of Agricultural Economics
Mississippi State University Extension Service