1. Pre-MDD Analyses: Identifying Military Capabilities & Gaps
Jack Mohney

2. Lesson Objectives
Examine analytical approaches that identify military capabilities, capability gaps, recommend non-materiel & materiel approaches, & recommend action
Examine military capability analytical approaches
Summarize the essential characteristics & qualities of Capability Based Assessments (CBAs)
Explore the relationship these approaches have to the DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR) & Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)

3. The Military Environment
CCMD Near-Term Missions Joint Systems Growing Demands Geographic Specificity Ambitious Mission Sets High Quantity (Sufficiency)
Services’ Far-Term Vision & Investment Service Missions Shrinking Budgets Worldwide Applicability Achievable Acquisitions High Quality (Capability)
CCMD: Combatant Command

4. The Analytical Environment: Process Interactions
CONPLANs: Concept Plans
DPG: Defense Planning Guidance
GEF: Guidance on Employment of the Force
GFM: Global Force Management
JOPES: Joint Operational Planning & Execution System
NDS: National Defense Strategy
NMS: National Military Strategy
NSS: National Security Strategy
OPLANS: Operations Plans
QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review

5. Translation Between Requirements and Acquisition
Fixing the delta between these three is precisely why we’re here…
How the Warfighter explained it…
How the PM understood it…
How the Contractor designed it…
How the Programmer wrote it…
How the Tester received it…
How the Consultant explained it…
Translating the requirements to the managers in the acquisition community is a great challenge because different managers and different specialists have different training, different experience, different points of view, and different communications patterns. The requirements process needs extensive documentation and visualization because everyone needs to know and to agree on what the customer really needs.
How it was documented…
How it was delivered…
How DoD was billed…
How the Loggie supported it…
What the Marketing Guru advertised…
Finally:
What the Warfighter actually needed…
Accessed Sep 14, 2013

6. Why Care About Up-Front Analyses?
Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Determination*
% Impact of Materiel Decision on LCC
Are we buying the “proper” system?
(Combat Developer: Mission Effectiveness)
Are we buying, modifying, & disposing of that system “properly”?
(Materiel Developer: Acquisition Efficiency
100%
Approximately
95% of LCC determined here 80 60
% Actual
Funds
Spent 40 20
Approximately
10% of LCC Spent here 0%
EMD
MDD
MSA A
TMRR B C
P&D
O&S
Disposal
*Notional curves:
Solid: combined DAU, AFMC, & AMR Research Inc. data
Dashed: extrapolated “S” (sigmoid) function
Control LCC Here:
“Sweet Spot”
Approximately
5% of reduction left here
Cost
Reduction
Opportunities 6

7. Pre-MDD Analyses Getting the front end right is key
AoA review and Portfolio Assessment
Component Approved
Joint Concepts
President
SECDEF
CJCS
Joint
Community
Strategic Guidance
Disposal
CDR & CDR Assessment
PDR & PDR Assessment
Capabilities - Based Assessment
Technology Maturation & Risk Reduction
Engineering &
Manufacturing
Development
Production & Deployment
Operations & Support A
MDD
Draft
CDD
ICD B C
CPD
Materiel
Solution Analysis
Sustainment
CDD Validation
RFP Release
AoA
Report
Getting the front end right is key
– just like anything else we do…
AoA: Analysis of Alternatives
CDD: Capability Development Document
CPD: Capability Production Document
ICD: Initial Capabilities Document\
MDD: Materiel Development Decision
O&S: Operations & Support

8. Solving Capability Gaps
Basically, three paths:
1. GFM: for assets available in Joint Force – basically adjusting what we currently have to where we need it…
2. DCR: When DoD needs an organic Joint Force non-materiel approach
3. ICD: when DoD needs both a materiel & non-materiel approach
Regardless of the path, solving gaps requires solid analysis… OR
DCR: DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation
GFM: Global Force Management
ICD: Initial Capabilities Document

9. GFM: Title 10 U.S.C.: Force Deployment Authorities*
Assignment:
The President, through the UCP documents his direction for assigning forces for Unified Commands (Title 10 U.S.C., Sections 161, 162, and 167)
Allocation:
By the authority of the SecDef, forces assigned to a combatant command may be transferred or allocated to another combatant commander for employment…under procedures prescribed by the SecDef and approved by the President (Title 10 U.S.C., Section 162)
Apportionment:
The CJCS is responsible for preparing strategic plans including projected resource levels…the CJCS apportions forces to combatant commands based on the SecDef’s contingency planning guidance (Title 10 U.S.C., Section 153)
The three A’s of Global Force Management
*Source: EUCOM GFM Briefing, 3 Mar 2012

10. DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities
CJCSI , Joint Lessons Learned Program
Documentation reflects assessment of operational utility
May lead to further analyses (CBA trigger?) & development of JCIDS documents for staffing
Joint IED Defeat Transition Package
Used as a source document for the CDD & CPD - JROC approval & transition to program of record (POR)
JCTD – Joint Capability Technology Demonstration
Only after a sufficient assessment of operational utility
Outlined in Emerging Capability and Prototyping (EC&P) website:
Prototypes
Used to address JUONs & JEONs – also outlined in the EC&P website above:
(FITE)
(IED robot with Tanglefoot)
(JLTV)

11. DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities (continued…)
The Capabilities-Based Assessment (CBA) is the “typical” analytical basis to identify needed capabilities & associated capability gaps
Recapitalization, replacement, & IS: CBA takes No Longer Than 90 days (NOT including writing & staffing times…)
More complex or new mission area: CBA takes No Longer Than 180 days (again, no writing & staffing times…)
No extensive detail or pre-determined solution
CBA: Capabilities-Base Assessment
IS: Information Systems

12. DoD Capability Analysis Outputs
Regardless of the approach, these analyses ought to:
Describe the mission & military problem
Assess prior studies
ID the tasks needed to meet mission objectives
ID the capabilities using one or more JCAs - describe the tasks, conditions, standards
Assess the capability gaps – needed vs programmed force structure
Assess the operational risk for each capability gap if not addressed
First, exhaust all possible non-materiel approaches that could satisfy part of all of the capability gaps
Second, examine materiel approaches
Third, recommend the most appropriate approach to close the capability gaps and reduce operational risk
Fundamental goal: recommend action or accept risk
JCA: Joint Capability Area

13. CBA Overview CBA: Initiated by: Becomes basis for:
Validating capability needs
DoD Sponsor
CBA:
Typical analytic basis of JCIDS
Based upon:
Recommends:
Joint
Concepts
Endorsed
CONOPS
Formally- tasked OPLANS and CONPLANs
ACTION w/o excessive rigor
ISCs
CONPLAN: Concept Plan
CONOPS: Concept of Operations
ISC: Integrated Security Constructs
OPLAN: Operation Plan

14. CBA to AoA JCIDS Acq Conduct of a CBA DCR ICD AoA Formal Entry Point…
ID tasks, conditions, & standards
“What’s the military problem”
MDD
Formal Entry Point…
ID capability gaps & redundancies
“Analyze the programmed force structure & doctrinal approaches”
CBA/ICD Sets up the AoA…
DCR
ID possible non-materiel & materiel solutions “Address gaps or accept risk”
Seam Between Capabilities & Acquisition
ICD
AoA
JCIDS
Acq
RM Skill Set = Capability Analysis
RM Skill Set =
Requirements
Development
Conduct of a CBA

15. Identify Military Concepts Identify Mission or Military Problem
CBA Steps in the Current JCIDS Manual
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 2
Identify
Previous
Studies
Step 3
Determine
Study
Rigor
Needed
Capabilities
Capability
Gaps
Operational
Risks
Step 1
Identify Military Concepts
Identify ISCs
Identify Mission or Military Problem
Scope
Identify Non-
Materiel
Approaches
Assess
Make
Recommendations
Needs Analysis
Admin:
Post to
KM/DS
Studies
Repository
Gap Analysis
Solutions Analysis
Study Initiation Notice
Termination Memo (if study terminated)
Study Results

16. CBA Lit Search: Strategic Guidance
QDR
CRA
Previous
Work
(AIR, J8
Repository)
QDR
NSHS
NSS
NSS
NDS
NDS
NMS
NMS
CBA:
Typical JCIDS analysis
UCP
JSCP
GEF
DPG
AIR: Acquisition Information
Repository
CRA: Chairman’s Risk Assessment
QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review
NSS: National Security Strategy
NDS: National Defense Strategy
NMS: National Military Strategy
NSHS: National Strategy for Homeland
Security
UCP: Unified Command Plan
GEF: Guidance on Employment of the Force
DPG: Defense Planning Guidance
JSCP: Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

17. CBA Lit Search: Conceptual Guidance
Joint
Concepts
Legacy
Docs:
JOAC,
JOE,
JOC, JIC,
Etc…
CJCSI C
JCD&E*
J7 - JCCD
CBA:
Typical analytical basis of JCIDS
JCA
JCA
J7 Joint Concepts website (JEL+ is CAC-Enabled…) -
Joint Concepts Division “advances the operational effectiveness of the future joint force and enables the introduction of new capabilities by identifying military implications of the future operating environment, developing joint concepts and white papers, leading joint wargaming to evaluate concepts during development, and overseeing the joint concept development community of interest.”
JCCD: Joint Capabilities to Concept Division
JCD&E: Joint Concept Development & Experimentation
CCJO: Capstone Concept for Joint Operations
JIC: Joint Integrating Concept
JCA: Joint Capability Area
JOC: Joint Operating Concept
JOAC: Joint Operational Access Concept
JOE: Joint Operating Environment

18. JCIDS Document Staffing
Acquisition
(and/or DCRs)
Functional Capability
Board
SME inputs from DoD
Prioritization within this portfolio
CCMD Inputs
Allied/Partner Nation equity
Non-materiel recommendations
Gatekeeper
FCB Chair:
Ready Validation
Discussion?
Sponsor
JCB
JROC
Termination
Combined
“Staffing”
4 days
Est. 21 days Commenting/30 days Adjudication/7 days to FCB Chair
Est. 7 days to JCB/14 days to JROC
Total:
83 days
Theoretical ICD max (CBA start to JROC validation): 263 days

19. Requirements Decision Chain
JROC DECISION CHAIN
JROC MEMBERSHIP
Chair: VCJCS
Statutory Council Members:
Vice Chief of Staff, Army
Vice Chief of Naval Operations
Vice Chief of Staff, Air Force
Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps
Combatant Commands* (Commander or Deputy Commander)
VCJCS
JROC Chairman; Advises the CJCS
JROC
Owns JCIDS; Validates JROC Interest documents; final authority
JROC
JCB
Validates JCB Interest documents; assists JROC
Reviews documents; prioritizes within portfolio; makes validation recommendation to JCB/JROC
FCB
FCB WG
Reviews documents & prioritizes prior to FCB review
*Unless otherwise directed to participate by the JROC Chairman, CCMD representatives are highly encouraged to participate as voting members of the JROC when matters related to the area of responsibility or functions of that command will be under consideration by the JROC. USD(AT&L), Dir, CAPE, USD(Comptroller), DOT&E, and USD(Policy) attend as statutory JROC advisors
JROC: Joint Requirements Oversight Council
JCB: Joint Capability Board
FCB: Functional Capability Board
FCB WG: Functional Capability Board Working Group

20. Limit the audience so determinative discussion/ decisions can be made
JROC Membership
Limit the audience so determinative discussion/ decisions can be made
More Tank-like
JROC Principals+1, CCMD Principals+1
Statutory Advisors or their Deputy (AT&L, CAPE, OT&E, OSD(P), OSD (C))
JS J7
FCB Chair
Minimal others by invitation only…

21. Functional Capability Boards
Battlespace
Awareness
Logistics*
Force
Support
C4/Cyber
Includes NC and
C2 JCAs
BGen
Weatherington
JS J-6
Mr. Canfield
JS J-2
Mr. Hawkins
JS J-4
BGen
Thomas
JS J-8
Protection**
BGen Evans
JS J-8
Force
Application
BGen
Thomas
JS J-8
Additional JCAs:
Building Partnerships
Corporate Management
& Support
The FCBs are boards below the JCB and provide review and assessment of documents and adjudication of lower level issues within their designated portfolios prior to review by the JCB, review/adjust Joint prioritization established by the FCB Working Groups (WGs), and perform other activities at the direction of the JCB or the JROC.
The FCBs are aligned with the joint capability areas (JCAs), which define portfolios of functionally similar capabilities within which each of the FCBs can focus their efforts.
*Ms Reardon, DASD for Supply Chain Integration, serves as Log FCB Co-Chair
**BGen Todorov, J8/DDJIAMDO, serves as Protection FCB Co-Chair for IAMD issues
FCB Membership: (O-6 level)
Services
Combatant Command Reps
OSD (AT&L)
OSD (I)
USecAF (Space)
DOD CIO
D/CAPE
DIA Rep (Threat)
ODNI/IRB
OSD (Comptroller)
Other DoD agencies as necessary

22. Sample JCA & Tiering
2 Battlespace Awareness – The ability to understand dispositions and intentions as well as the characteristics and conditions of the operational environment that bear on national and military decision-making. 2.1 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance – The ability to conduct activities to meet the intelligence needs of national and military decision-makers Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Planning and Direction – The ability to synchronize and integrate the activities of collection, processing, exploitation, analysis and dissemination resources to meet information requirements of national and military decision-makers Define and Prioritize Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Requirements – The ability to translate national through tactical objectives and needs into specific information and operational requirements for ISR. … 2.2 Environment – The ability to characterize and exploit the meteorological, space and oceanographic information from the sub-bottom of the earth’s oceans up to and including space.

23. 1st Recommendation: Non-Materiel Approaches
Doctrine
Organization
Training
Leadership
&
Education
Personnel
Facilities
DCR
Policy
DOTmLPF - P
Change
Recommendation
Doctrine: change how we fight
Organization: change how we’re organized to fight
Training: change how we train our DoD personnel
materiel: acquire what we have - COTS, GOTS, or NDI
Leadership: adjust the joint leader’s professional development
Personnel: add or reassign people
Facilities: move or realign buildings & infrastructure
Policy: change policy that impacts how we fight

24. 2nd Recommendation: Materiel Approaches
Development & Fielding of Information Systems
Or similar technologies with high obsolescence rates
Evolution of existing capabilities
Evolution of Existing Systems
Provide significant capability improvement
Replacing existing system with more capable system
Simple recapitalization
Transformational Systems
Differ significantly in form, function, operation & capabilities
Significant improvement over current capability
Transforms how we accomplish mission

25. 2nd Recommendation: Materiel Approaches
Development & Fielding of Information Systems
Or similar technologies with high obsolescence rates
Evolution of existing capabilities
Evolution of Existing Systems
Provide significant capability improvement
Replacing existing system with more capable system
Simple recapitalization
Transformational Systems
Differ significantly in form, function, operation & capabilities
Significant improvement over current capability
Transforms how we accomplish mission

26. Bottom Line Pre-MDD Capability Analysis:
AoA
Sound Analysis, Findings & Recommendations: vital for shaping the force & the foundation of a successful acquisition
These same results then support which acquisition document?
Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase
Usually starts & supports which
acquisition phase?
Materiel Development Decision (MDD)
Supports which decision?
Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)
Support which document?
CBA Results & Recommendations

27. Lesson Take Aways Solid Pre-MDD analysis is vital to the ICD
Ensure your approach effectively scopes the analysis needed (Goldilocks Zone…)
Keep in mind it sets up later, more-detailed analyses & decisions
CBAs: days, use representative scenarios from the ISCs, & use a realistic timeframe for delivery of the capability
Align all capability requirements to prioritized JCAs
Develop the ICD using the correct format and length
Recommend appropriate actions to mitigate gaps
Accept risk
Non-materiel
Materiel

28. Sources for More Info Acq Info Repository (AIR)
DASD/EC&P (Emerging Capability & Prototyping):
DAU online course CLR 250, Capability-Based Assessments:
General CBA overview – more detailed than RQM 310 – use browse mode
DAU RM Community of Practice (RMCoP):
DTM site:
JCIDS Intellipedia site:
CJSCI H, JCIDS, 10 Jan 2012
CJCSI F, JROC Charter, 10 Jan 2012
JCIDS Manual, 19 Jan 2012 (along with errata & update draft)
JCIDS Process Flowchart, 19 Jan 2012

29. Questions? 29

30. What does the JROC expect from Pre-MDD analyses?
Analytical depth
Specific recommendation
Analytical breadth
Action timetables
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31. What’s the maximum time a CBA should take?
30 days
90 days
180 days
263 days
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32. What recommendations can be submitted with a DCR?
Increasing manpower, operational tempo, spare parts, fuel supplies, and recruiting
Recommend changing PME subjects or emphasis
Adding personnel to mission areas
All of these choices are correct
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33. Validated Threat Documents AoA Study Report
Which of the following is not a predecessor document or input for the ICD?
Joint Concepts
Validated Threat Documents
AoA Study Report
Capabilities Based Assessments (CBAs)
All of these choices are correct
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34. Which choice best represents the role of the CBA?
It maintains focus on developing specific solutions after sponsor initiation
It indirectly supports the ICD staffing process
It is analysis that underpins JCIDs
It directly supports the CDD staffing process
All answers are correct
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35. CBAs identify all but which of the following:
Possible non-materiel approaches
Operational risks
Materiel support approaches
Shortfalls in existing systems
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