1. Look at the following graph?
What trends can you see in the data?

2. Time Series Analysis aims: understand what is meant by correlation be able to map figures and identify trends be able to use trends to forecast data

3. Correlation
The degree to which there is a relationship between two or more random variables
The closer the relationship the higher the degree of correlation

4. Trends Looking for patterns in data collections
Frequency and reliability of trends
Impact of external factors, e.g. seasonal variation, random events, cyclical trends

5. Averages
Averages are a measure of central tendency – the most likely or common item in a data series
Quarterly moving averages

6. Time-Series Analysis
Used to analyse movements of a variable over a time period – usually years, quarters, months, etc.
Importance of assessing the:
Trend
Seasonality
Key moments
Magnitude

7. Quantitative
Makes use of all the statistical data collected by the firm and by other firms/organisations to help inform decision making
Surveys
Sales data
Impact on sales
Primary data – collected by the firm themselves
Data collected by others and used by the firm, e.g. Office of National Statistics (ONS), Gallup, Mori, Mintel

8. Qualitative
Focus groups - a group of individuals selected and assembled by researchers to discuss and comment on, from personal experience, a topic, issue or product
User groups – similar to focus groups but consisting of those who have experience in the use of a product, system, service, etc.
Panel surveys – repeated measurements from the same sample of people over a period of time
Delphi method – calls on the expertise and insights of a panel of experts to help with forecasting – seen as being more reliable than data analysis only
Could be drawn together from around the world as there is no need to have people together at the same time
In-house judgements – Use the expertise and judgements of those involved in the business in aiding and making judgements

9. Forecasting Advantages and disadvantages:
Data from several years can give accurate guides to future performance
Statistical techniques can make the data informative and useful
All depends on the quality of the data and the accuracy of the techniques used to analyse the data