1. Skills Assessments
Angus
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments Key Data for Angus
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Borders Aberdeenshire, Dundee City and Perth and Kinross
Covers an area of 2,200 sq. km and has seven main towns Arbroath, Forfar, Montrose, Carnoustie, Kirriemuir, Brechin and Monifieth.
Agriculture and fishing remain important sectors
Low levels of productivity
High proportion of businesses and employment in the Growth Sectors
Below average levels of GVA, productivity and employment growth forecast and an ageing workforce

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base is slightly above the Scottish trend rate (7.7% v. 7.3%) in 2015
280 new businesses in 2015 including: Business Administration and Support services (+50), Professional, Scientific and Technical (+35) and Retail (+30)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
45 businesses employ more 50 people
333 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
11.8% in self-employment in Angus - higher than the national figure (10.8%)
Number of Growth Sector businesses in 2015 grew by 3% to 1,885
31% of total employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally)
Growth Sector businesses highly concentrated in Food and Drink, and in line with national proportions in Sustainable Tourism. Under represented in other Growth Sectors
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 116,900 in 2015
2.2% of Scotland’s total population
Very small change (+0.1%) in population over , compared to a small rise in national rate (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years Angus saw population growth in line with national trends (+5%)
As found nationally, growth in Angus was driven by those over the age of 65 (+26%), while there was decline in 0-15 year olds (-5%)
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population is forecast to fall by 1% (-900), against a 9% rise Scotland-wide, and working age population is anticipated to fall by 17%, in contrast to a 4% fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Angus = 35,100 (1% of Scottish total)
2.8% increase over , above the region (2.4%) but lower than Scotland (3.2%)
41% work in higher level occupations in 2015, slightly below the national average of 42%
75% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
27% of employees work part-time, no change from the previous year and similar to the national average (26%)
5.7% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, slightly higher than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Angus is 74% in 2015, 2ppts higher than the previous year, and now above the national profile (73%)
60% of employed residents work in Angus
30% work elsewhere in the region
11% work outside the region
Key areas for out-commuting include Dundee (27%), Aberdeen City (5%) and Aberdeenshire (3%)
The unemployment rate in Angus was the same as the national average (6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -0.2ppts which was less than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
92% of year olds in Angus are participating in 2016, and 3% are not, a higher participation rate than Scotland (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 45%, a higher proportion of working age adults in Angus hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland and the UK (43% and 37% respectively) in 2015
Qualification level of working age population, 2015:
Workplace earnings in Angus sit below the national average (£445), while residents earning (£525) are in line with the national average
Suggests residents may commute out of Angus to seek higher paid employment

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 6,401, 2.3% of Scotland total
93% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 3%, from 2014/15 to 645
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction and Sport, Health & Social Care most popular MA framework groups, 17% of uptake each
80% MA achievement rate in 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Dundee & Angus College and Perth College there were 24,315 enrolments
9% of Scotland’s total
88% FE and 12% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business management, Care and Engineering
Part-time: Special Programmes, Languages & ESOL and Care
73% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 19,000 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
2014/15 students at HEIs in Tayside
Total university students
University of Dundee
15,605
University of Abertay
4,230
Total
19,835
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in Angus, Dundee and Perth and Kinross not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.1% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. In line with the flat employment forecast, regional sectoral growth is relatively static although construction and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 300 jobs and 200 jobs respectively over the forecast period. There will be decreases however in manufacturing (400 jobs) as well as agriculture and public administration and defence (both 200 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Angus Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 19,900 openings within Angus over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to contract by 100 jobs between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 19,800 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in professional occupations and sales and customer service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period again driven by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Angus: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The employment growth in Angus in 2013 and 2014 was not repeated in 2015, and the area has lost 200 jobs. There are 900 (2.5%) fewer jobs in Angus than in 2009, compared to a 1% increase in Scotland. This illustrates the fragility of the economic recovery, which is not extending to all areas.
There were modest shifts in sector composition in There were further losses in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-200) and also construction (-300). Accommodation and food services jobs increased (+300), as did retail (+200) and business administration & support (+200).
The business base continues to grow, and at a close to 8% increase in 2015, this has been at a rate slightly above the Scotland average, although overall output growth and productivity are below those for Scotland.
Angus continues to face the challenge of reducing reliance on manufacturing and agriculture where employment has been in long-term decline, and making the transition to a knowledge-based economy. Angus retained its level of professional, scientific & technical sector and financial services employment levels in 2015, although they remain under-represented. The area also retained its production employment base, where 5,900 are employed, 15% of the total.
and
Glasgow

20. Angus: Key Implications (2).
Skills Demand and Supply
Population growth over the last 10 years has been equal to the Scotland average, however to 2037 this is forecast to decline, with a significantly smaller working age population. More than 30% of workers from Angus out-commutes from the region. There is a challenge to grow the number of jobs locally.
More are employed in skilled trades and as operatives than the Scotland average, although the number in professional occupations has grown. Almost 20,0000 openings will exist by 2024, almost all through replacement demand, highest for elementary occupations, but also professionals, skilled trades and sales & customer service. Jobs in Angus continue to pay less than the Tayside average.
Almost one third go into Further Education from school from Angus, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism, engineering & energy and food & drink.
Glasgow

21. Angus: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Angus include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. The fall in the number of jobs in reflects the weak economic recovery which is struggling to take effect in Angus.
Increasing the quality of jobs. Productivity is below average and Angus remains under-represented in higher value added services.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing which is a significant employer, health and the growing tourism sector. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non-traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow