1. Real-time Flood Forecasting in China Using TOPKAPI
International Symposium on Distributed Hydrological Modelling
To mark the 70th birthday of Prof. Ezio Todini
Real-time Flood Forecasting in China Using TOPKAPI
Cinzia Mazzetti
ProGeA Srl, Bologna, Italy

2. GREETINGS FROM A COUPLE OF FRIENDS IN CHINA…
Dr. LIU Zhiyu
Dr. LU Feng
Vice-president of the Commission for Hydrology at WMO
Deputy Chief Engineer and Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources at the Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources,PR China
Chief Engineer, Department of Water Resources, Zhejiang Province, P.R. China

3. WHERE
TOPKAPI model runs inside operational real-time flood forecasting systems in Henan and Zhejiang Provinces.

4. YELLOW RIVER (HUANG HE) 黄河
Client
Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Henan Province, PRC
TOPKAPI model area
41’605 Km2
TOPKAPI cells size
1000 m
Real-time flood forecasting system
EFFORTS
Year of installation
2008
Calibration period
Simulation time step
1 hour
Meteorological model
MM5
Forecasting horizon
48 hours
Computation time (72 hours)
40 sec
Status
Running autonomously

5. FUCHUN RIVER (QIANTANG JIANG) 钱塘江
Client
Bureau of Hydrology, Zhejiang Province, PRC
TOPKAPI model area
26’142 Km2
TOPKAPI cells size
1000 m
Real-time flood forecasting system
EFFORTS
Year of installation
2011
Calibration period
Simulation time step
1 hour
Meteorological model
JMA GSM
Forecasting horizon
48 hours
Computation time (72 hours)
30 sec
Status
Running with maintenance

6. TOPKAPI MODEL CALIBRATION ON FUCHUN RIVER
RAINFALL DATA ( )
61 rain-gauges
1 hour time steps
Data interpolation using ISD method
Rainfall maps resolution 2000 m
SOME PROBLEMS…
Different time steps resolution between seasons and during events (daily)
A lot of missing data
No distinction between missing data and no rainfall
No data validation
TEMPERATURE DATA ( )
7 gauges
Rain-gauges location on Fuchun catchment
1 hour time steps
Data interpolation using ISD method
Temperature maps resolution 2000 m

7. DISCHARGE DATA (1992 - 2009) SOME PROBLEMS… www.progea.net 11 gauges
1 hour time steps
Xinanjiang reservoir
China’s first hydropower station (construction started in 1956).
The first dam constructed in China with a height greater than 100 m.
The Qiandao lake covers an area of 573 km² and has a storage capacity of 17.8 km3.
SOME PROBLEMS…
Discharge is often not measured during non-flood season
A lot of missing data
Daily data during non-flood season and smaller events
Rating curves can change very rapidly
No data validation
A lot of very large reservoirs

8. SOIL TYPES MAP LAND USE MAP www.progea.net FAO soil types map
Modified soil types map
SOIL TYPES MAP
FAO soil types map
6 different soil types
Very few information
LAND USE MAP
AVHRR map
13 different land uses
Sub-tropical climate

9. SOME RESULTS FROM THE CALIBRATION PERIOD
QUZHOU CATCHMENT
(Area 5539 km2)

10. SOME RESULTS FROM THE CALIBRATION PERIOD
JINHUA CATCHMENT
(Area 5967 km2)

11. SOME RESULTS FROM THE CALIBRATION PERIOD
LANXI CATCHMENT
(Area km2)

12. RESULTS FROM THE REAL-TIME SYSTEM (12-23 June 2011)

13. Quzhou

15. :00
:00
:00
:00

16. 6 hours in advance

17. 12 hours in advance

18. 24 hours in advance

19. Jinhua

21. :00
:00
:00
:00
:00

22. 6 hours in advance

23. 12 hours in advance

24. 24 hours in advance

25. CONCLUSIONS OF THE «TOPKAPI EXPERIENCE» IN CHINA
Going operational 8’000 Km from home requires a robust and very reliable model
Research innovations need to confront with data availability
Culture and background of clients cannot be ignored
Training is a fundamental part of the job

26. Thank you for your attention.
PROGEA srl - Via Santo Stefano Bologna - ITALY
Phone: