1. Agro-meteorological inputs for Agriculture from
National Agromet Center (NAMC)
Dr. Khalid Mahmood Malik
Pakistan Meteorological Department

2. Outlines… Brief about National Agromet Center (NAMC) NAMC products
Impact of climate change over Pakistan
Conclusions
Recomendations

3. National Agro met Center(NAMC)
Agro meteorology: is the study and use of weather and climate information to enhance or expand agricultural crops and/or to increase crop production.
Aim : The National Agro-Met Center (NAMC) aims to address the needs of the farming community and its other related stakeholders, through provision of weather advisory information and services through the various delivery channels available in their vicinity for assisting them in making rational decision.
Purpose : The purpose of establishment of National Agro-Met Center is to support and provide meteorological, climatological information/ advisories to agricultural production and food security related departments /agencies to boost agriculture production in the country.

4. Agro -Met Network in Pakistan
The functions of NAMC include
Management of the agro-meteorological station network
Meteorological data collection, processing and its publication
Issuance of regular weather bulletins and advisories
Seasonal Crop reports and technical crop reports
Agro related research

5. NAMC PRODUCTS Weekly weather and crop Bulletin
Decadal Agromet Bulletin
Monthly Agro-met Bulletin
Seasonal Crop reports
Technical crop reports
Meteorological Seasonal weather outlook (for three months)
Hydrological Seasonal weather outlook for Indus River Basin (for three months issues in monsoon seasons)

6. Rainfall Distribution (mm) Mean Minimum Temperature (°C)
Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Rainfall Distribution (mm)
Part-1
Past week weather analysis on provinces basis (spatial distribution)
Rainfall
Relative Humidity
Mean Maximum temperature
Total growing degree days
Mean cloudiness
Wind speed (morning)
Wind speed (evening)
Mean Minimum Temperature (°C)
Mean Relative Humidity

7. Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-2
Weekly Weather Advisory for Farmers
(From 6th to 12th January, 2014)
Continental air would prevail over most parts of the country during the week.
 Punjab including Islamabad
Cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week. Shallow fog/misty conditions are expected to prevail over the plains of Northeast Punjab (Gujranwala and Lahore division) during the weekend.
 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week.
 Balochistan
 Sindh
Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week.
 Gilgit-Baltistan
Very cold and dry weather with partly cloudy conditions at times is expected in most parts of Gilgit-Baltistan during the week.
  Kashmir
Very cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of Kashmir during the week.

8. Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-3
Advises for Crops
Cotton: Farmers are advised to manage irrigation practices as per weather prediction during the week.
Wheat: Farmers of cotton crop areas are advised to prepare their fields for incoming Rabi crops and complete sowing process before 15th December. After this time the yield of wheat crop decreases gradually. Farmers of wheat growing areas are advised to sow their crops in time to get the optimum yield.
Vegetables: Farmers are advised to cultivate winter vegetables in time so that present soil moisture may fully be utilized.
General Information: Farmers of rain-fed areas, obtaining crop water through tube wells are advised to schedule the irrigation according to the expected weather mentioned above during the week. It is advised to ensure field sanitation and spray prophylactic fungicidal sprays to prevent spread of diseases on vegetables.

9. Decadal Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan
Part-1
Past weather analysis on provinces basis (spatial distribution)
Rainfall
Relative Humidity
Mean Maximum temperature
Total growing degree days
Mean cloudiness
Wind speed (morning)
Wind speed (evening)
Observed
Departure from normal
Departure from previous decade

10. Decadal Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-2 Ten Days Weather Advisory for Farmers
(1st to 10th January, 2014)
Temperature Forecast
 Night temperatures are expected to drop slightly (1-2°C) in most of the agricultural plains of the country especially in upper parts of the country during the decade.
Rain Forecast
 Punjab: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province especially in upper parts during the decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the hills) is expected at Murree during the end of decade.
 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province especially in upper parts during the decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the hills) is expected at isolated places in upper parts of the province during the end of decade.
Sindh: Mainly cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade.
Balochistan: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the hills) is expected at Quetta region during the end of decade.
Gilgit-Baltistan: Mainly dry/partly cloudy & very cold weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade. However; rain/thunderstorm with light snow over the hills may occur at isolated places during the last few days of decade.
Kashmir: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade. However; rain/thunderstorm with light snow over the hills may occur at isolated places during the last few days of decade.
Wind Forecast
Normal wind pattern may prevail in most of the agricultural plains of the country during the decade.

11. Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-3
Advisory for Farmers
Wheat crop is growing at early stages in most parts of the the country. Farmers of barani areas, obtaining crop water through tube wells are advised to schedule the irrigation according to the expected weather mentioned above during the decade.
Wheat cultivation has completed in most of the irrigated areas. Farmers of irrigated areas should irrigate the crop as per requirement due to dry weather prevailing in most of the irrigated agricultural plains of the country. Normally first irrigation is given after days after sowing and 2nd irrigation is given just before heading stage and third irrigation is given at milk maturity stage.
Farmers of barani and irrigated areas are advised to remove weeds from the fields wheat so that the present soil moisture may fully be utilized.
Falling leaves from the trees negatively affect standing Rabi crops like wheat & other Rabi crops. Farmers should collect leaves from the crops as early as possible so that crop normal growth may not be disturbed.
Due to further drop of temperatures, especially farmers of upper areas are advised to protect their crops from the frost.

12. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Spatial distribution maps
Precipitation
Temperature (Max./Min.)
ETo
Water Stress (Rain-ETo)
1. Past month
2. Seasonal (Rabi/Kharif) Cumulative
3. Departure from normal

13. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Comparison of past month observation with normal

14. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
“Average precipitation is expected during the season all over the country with more snowfall over the northern region during January.”
Average (± 15 %) precipitation is expected during predicted season.
In January slightly above normal precipitation over northern parts of the country is expected with less than average night temperature over central parts of the country.
Density of fog will be less during upcoming winter months.
Two to three rainy spells are expected during January. The focus of rainy spell will be towards north and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
Very limited chances of well rainy spell over southern Punjab and Sindh during month of January.
March may be dry month in most of agriculture plain however; light precipitation is expected over northern parts of the country.
Well intense snowfall spells over northern glaciers are expected during January.
Expected Minimum temperature will be below normal all over the country during whole predicted months whereas March will be expected colder month than normal over the country.

15. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
Jan, 2014
Feb, 2014
Mar, 2014
Jan-Mar, 2014
Ave
Exp GB
27.2
Abv. Ave
29.7
34.6
91.5 KP
49.0
71.9
92.5
Blw. Ave
213.4
AJK
91.1
110.5
127.5
329.0
FATA
30.2
54.0
67.4
151.6
PUNJAB
17.2
30.9
75.2
BALUCHISTAN
19.5
20.9
23.3
63.7
SIND
3.0
5.4
4.7
13.1
Pakistan
20.8
31.7
79.6
Ave. : average ( )
Exp. : Expcted rainfall
Below Average (Blw. Ave) < -15 %,
Average precipitation range (Ave) = -15 to +15 %,
Above Average (Abv.Ave) > +15 %

16. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (By using ECHAM4P5 model)

17. Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
Temperature(Max.)/Min.)
Departure form Normal
Expected

20. Register your self at NAMC for free Newsletter

21. Impact of Climate Change over Pakistan

22. Data and Methodology
Precipitation : Global precipitation climatology center (GPCC), Version -6
Study period ( )
Resolution: 0.5 O Longitude by latitude
Divisions of study period:
Season: Winter (December-March)
Summer ( June- September)
Anomaly: departure of precipitation from average
Long Period Average (LPA) period

23. Yearly Precipitation analysis for the period 1901-2010
Depicted significant variation in decadal average in last 30 years

24. Frequency of extreme weather increased
Yearly Precipitation anomaly analysis for the
period
Frequency of extreme weather increased

25. Climate change and Seasonal precipitation
No significant evidence of climate change on average precipitation
Average
No change
Winter
Slightly decreased
Summer
Slightly increased

26. Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
Sind
Punjab
Yearly
No change
Slightly decreased
Slightly increased
Winter
Summer
decreased
increased

27. Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
FATA
Yearly
No change
Summer rainfall increased
increased
Summer rainfall increased significantly
Winter
Summer

28. Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
Kashmir
Gilgit Baltistan
Yearly
decreased
Summer rainfall decreased in eastern parts
increased
Slightly increased
Winter
No change
Summer

29. Monsoon season starts in advance and breakout early
Climate change and Monthly precipitation (Summer)
June
Clear evidence of early start of monsoonal rainfall
September
Clear evidence of early withdrawal of monsoonal rainfall
Monsoon rainfall (June-Sept)
Monsoon season starts in advance and breakout early

30. Climate change and Monthly precipitation (Winter)
December
No Clear evidence of early start of winter precipitation
December
Clear evidence of early finish of winter precipitation
Winter precipitation (Dec-March)
Winter season become squeezed

31. Climate Change and Surface temperature of Pakistan
Departure of Surface Temperature from LPA ( )

32. Spatial distribution of seasonal departure of surface temperature for the period ( ) from Long Period Average-LPA ( )
Jun-Aug
Dec-Feb
Surface Temperature. increased significantly over southern Punjab, upper Sind
Slightly increased in Surface Temperature all over the country

33. Conclusions-1 Meteorological Prospective
Climate variability has been observed in the region.
Frequency of extreme weather has been increased.
No significant evidence of variation in seasonal normal of the country has been investigated
No significant evidence is observed in Seasonal average precipitation of Sind and Punjab.
Summer (Monsoon) rainfall increased in KP and FATA and deceased in Kashmir
Clear evidence of expansion/shifting of monsoonal areas towards west.
Monsoonal rain starts early.
Western disturbances weather systems (Winter) precipitation starts in December and breakout in early march.
Precipitation intensity increases with decrease in precipitation frequency

34. Conclusions-2 Agriculture Prospective
Shifting of monsoonal belt towards west indicates
“Chances of flooding in Indus river basin increased and availability of much water in eastern rivers of Pakistan (Ravi and Sutlej) has decreased.”
Most of agriculture land over bed of eastern rivers become barren
Agriculture land over bed of Indus river is on thread of uncertain weather systems
Advance start of precipitation in the country
Needs to modify Crop calendar on regional bases.
New verities of crop should be introduced to cope up with current weather situation
Frequency of extreme weather increased
Chances of drought in different pockets of provinces.

35. Recommendations...
Take initiative at different forum for proper and timely dissemination of weather bulletins and advisories to the end users.
Expertise of agronomist should be added in the weather bulletins to make it more agriculture oriented
Strategy should be made to ensure food security in the country due to increase of uncertainty weathers such as drought in different areas of the country
Needs to modify or prepare new cropping zones of the county in the light of climate change scenarios

36. THANKS FOR PARTICIPATION
Thank You for your valuable time
THANKS FOR PARTICIPATION