1. Small States’ Military Options after the Cold War
Dr. Jean-Marc Rickli
President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group
1st July 2010
University of Iceland

2. Structure of the presentation
Small states’ security dilemma
Changes in the strategic environment in Europe
Small states’ grand strategy options
Small states’ military options
Conclusions

3. 1.1 Definition of a small state
State that has a deficit of power due to its weak ability to mobilize ressources

4. 1.2 Small states’strategic dilemma
Security
Autonomy
Influence
Defensive
Cooperative
Offensive

5. 1.3 Cold War Alliance Bandwagoning or balancing
Deterrence provided by great power
Lost of strategic autonomy
Entrapment
Neutrality
Strategic sovereignty
Deterrence provided by extensive territorial defence preparations
Strategic abandonment

8. 2.1 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe
1) Unipolarity
2) Shift from threats based to risks based environment
3) Institutionalisation of security

9. 2.2 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe
1) Increased incentive for bandwagoning
2) Selectivity in the use of force
3) Standardisation of security

10. 2.3 Obsolescence of defensive strategies
Disappearence of the strategic advantage provided by territorial defence preparations
Overburden of costs
Maintenance of autonomy is counterproductive

11. Institutionalisation
2.4 Strategic orientations according to the nature of strategic challenges
Autonomy
Influence
Threats
Linked to territorial security
Neutrality
Alliances
Risks
Linked to functional security
Counterproductive
Institutionalisation

12. 2.5 Post-Cold security paradox for small states
Formal strategic options
Strategic room of manoeuvre
Cold War
Post-Cold War

15. 3.1 Small states’ grand strategic goal
Carve out a niche strategy

16. 3.2 Small states’ grand strategic goal+ -
ZOPA - + + -
ZOPA - +

17. 3.3 Small states’ grand strategic options
Technical expertise
Honest broker
Norms setter
Institutional engineering

18. 4.1 Change of strategic paradigm
Cold War
Contemporary environment
National security strategy
Collective or autonomous defence
Prevention/Protection
Doctrines
Strategic level
Dissuasion/
Deterrence
Stabilisation/Coercion
Operational level
Territorial Defence
Projection
Niche
Theatre of operations
National territory
Out of area / National territory
Strategic Culture
Reactive
Pro-active

19. 4.2 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic level
Prevention/
Protection
Stabilisation/
Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protection
Subsidiary assistance
Police missions
Intelligence
Niche:
Logistic
Transport
Medical units
Communication
CIMIC
Spe Ops
Counter-terrorism
 Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
Professional
Modularity
Network centric

20. 4.3 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic level
Prevention/
Protection
Stabilisation/
Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protection
Subsidiary assistance
Police missions
Intelligence
Niche:
Logistic
Transport
Medical units
Communication
CIMIC
Spe Ops
Counter-terrorism
 Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
Professional
Modularity
Network centric

21. 4.4 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic level
Prevention/
Protection
Stabilisation/
Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protection
Subsidiary assistance
Police missions
Intelligence
Niche:
Logistic
Transport
Medical units
Communication
CIMIC
Spe Ops
Counter-terrorism
 Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
Professional
Modularity
Network centric

22. 4.5 Small states’ defence options
Homeland Defence
Low strategic ambitions
High strategic ambitions
Strategic level
Prevention/
Protection
Stabilisation/
Reconstruction
Coercion/ Enforcement
Operational level
Territorial protection
Subsidiary assistance
Police missions
Intelligence
Niche:
Logistic
Transport
Medical units
Communication
CIMIC
Spe Ops
Counter-terrorism
 Framework nation
Armed forces structure
Conscription and professional
Division of labour bw conscripts and prof
Interoperability
Professional
Modularity
Network centric

23. 4.6 Niche strategies Advantages Risks Political Strategic Operational
Strategic influence
Co-decision power
International pressures
Strategic
●Extended
protection
Casualties
Public opinion
Operational
Know-how
Reduction of mission creep risks
Intensive use of capabilities

24. 4.7 Framework nation strategy
Advantages
Risks
Political
Strategic responsibility
Decision power
International pressures/
responsibilities
Strategic
●Extended
protection
●Autonomy
Casualties
Public opinion reactions
Operational
Extended know-how
Reduction of mission creep risks
Intensive use of capabilities
Exclusive use of ressources

25. 5. Conclusions
Paradox for small states’ security options
Cooperative security policy
Niche strategy

26. President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group
Questions?
Jean-Marc Rickli
President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group

27. Exercise
Use the typology provided by De Wijk (2004) to classify the strategic ambition of your country and determine its armed forces’ profile

28. Typology of armed forces profile
Political ambitions
Required forces
Countries
Low profile low risks (5th tier)
No capabilities for expeditionary warfare, limited capabilities for stability operations
Low profile, medium risks (4th tier)
Niche capabilities for expeditionary warfare
Medium profile medium risks (3rd tier)
Focused toolbox for defensive expeditionary operations and (combat) support
Medium profile, high risks (2nd tier)
Focused toolbox for offensive expeditionary operations
High profile, high risks (1st tier)
Broad toolbox for expeditionary warfare
Global responsibilities
Full spectrum expeditionary capabilities