1. Programme Director, NIACE
University of Exeter
Futures Institute
November 17th 2009
Simon Mauger
Programme Director, NIACE

2. Inquiry into the Future for Lifelong Learning
The overall goal of the Inquiry has been to develop
an authoritative and coherent strategic framework for lifelong learning in the UK
Articulating a broad rational for public and private investment in lifelong learning;
A re-appraisal of the social and cultural value attached to it by policy-makers and the public;
Developing new perspectives on policy and practice.

3. IFLL Final Report IFLL Strategic Framework for Lifelong Learning
Outline of Inquiry Papers
IFLL Final Report
IFLL Strategic Framework for Lifelong Learning
Interim Papers
Thematic
Expenditure
Sectoral
Public Value
Prosperity Employment & Work
Demography and Social Structure
Wellbeing and Happiness
Migration and Communities
Technological Change
Poverty Reduction
Citizenship and Belonging
Crime and Social Exclusion
Sustainable Development
Public Sector Investment
Private Sector Investment
Third Sector Investment
Individual Commitment
Early childhood
Schools
Further Education
Higher Education
Local Authorities
Voluntary Sector
Private Training Providers
Poverty
Health
Crime
Wellbeing
Overview
Horizon Scanning / Scenario Planning

4. Horizon Scanning / Scenario Planning

5. Horizon scanning is…… beyond a ‘single expected future’to
a ‘range of possible futures’
to consider
implications for today’s decisions
Looking ahead –
beyond usual timescales
Looking across –
beyond usual sources
…. and the point is - resilience
and adaptability in strategy

7. ‘Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?’
Let the ‘future’ be 2025

8. Sector Post-compulsory Education 46 % Culture & Arts 10 %
Architecture & Planning
6 %
Schools
1 %
Business & Technology Entrepreneurs
Government & Regional Agencies
7 %
Learner Organisations
8 %
Other
15 %
Media
2 %

9. Your particular expertise/interest%
Arts/Culture
16 %
Architecture
9 %
Business Development
Business Management
11 %
Community Development
19 %
Design
6 %
Economics
2 %
Education Delivery
36 %
Education Policy
41 %
Media Production
3 %
Media Policy
4 %
Politics
8 %
Technology
18 %
Other
14 %

10. Background Information
In this section, you are asked to provide some basic information that will help in producing informative reports. Your responses are completely confidential.
Your particular area of interest/expertise
(choose as many as you like):
Your working sector (choose one):

11. Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):
Key Question
Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
Instructions:
Please avoid bringing up more than one main point in a single answer.
You can provide as many points as you wish.
When you save your response, you will get an empty form and you can make another point.
Press ‘save answer’ to save each point.
Your answers are listed and you can edit them if you like.
When you feel you have completed all the points you wish to make, then press the ‘Proceed’ button to move on.
__________________________________________________________________________
Your point in brief (60 characters left)
Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):

12. _________________________________________________
What about this?
Think that this is the year We’re looking for your ideas around how learning infrastructures now work - the realities, the opportunities and the problems. A short prompt appears below the main question. If that does not bring any ideas to mind, you can get a new Prompt by reloading the page (ctrl-R).
There are 7 Prompts.
Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
Who’s missing?
_________________________________________________
Your point in brief (60 characters left):
Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):

13. Wild Horizons Non-biological intelligence
Here we are looking for wild ideas, guesses, unexpected associations. A short prompt appears below the main question. If that does not bring any new challenges to mind, you can get a new prompt by reloading the page (ctrl-R).
There are 6 different prompts.
Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
Non-biological intelligence
__________________________________________________________________
Your point in brief (60 characters left):
Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):

14. Phase 1 : Collection of thoughts and ideas
The main question:
Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
Participants provided 544 well thought out ideas
Text Mining software was used to analyse:
What are dominant clustering takes place in Phase 1
330 Ideas out of total 544 were chosen for prioritisation in phase 2
Ideas are interpreted and gathered into categories

15. TOP 25 key-words in Phase 1 contributions = What respondents are thinking about spontaneously (excluded question words: learning, environment, people, technology)
Presence of issue in all received comments

16. Relations between key words in phase 1 material (excluded question words: learning, environment, people, technology)
Numbers between boxes indicate amount of connections

17. Examples of what is said about ’increasing’......
Brief Point:
‘Increased expectations for mobile computing’
Elaborated Point:
‘Users will expect to use their own device to carry out a wide variety of learning related tasks. This poses technical, security and access problems. For a provider, a physical environment needs to accommodate charging, connectivity, ergonomics.’

18. All collected Ideas were analysed in terms of ’gathering’ into Categories
Environment
Technology
Capability
Behaviour
Inequality
Resourcesn
Teaching
Unknown
Change
Lifelong
Mobility
Design
Quality
Services
Society
Cost

19. Phase 2 : Prioritisation of Ideas
Phase 2 had separate prioritisation pages with themes
1. significance to the future of lifelong learning
2. likelihood to happen
3. by timeline
For each theme the participant had separate random selections of 26 Ideas from the database of 330 Ideas
Significance prioritisation
Likelihood prioritisation
Timelining profile

22. Phase 2 material, TOP 25 key-words (n=330)

23. Ideas ‘Category-Tagged’
Categories
Categories
Categories
(15 in all)
Ideas ‘Category-Tagged’
Prioritisation Exercise
Prioritised Categories
Significance/Agreement Analysis

24. Significance by Category level
Higher
Ranking
Lower
Higher Agreement Lower

25. Prioritisation grid report structure
Most important issues
Highest significance or
likelihood
High agreement
Potential issues
Medium high significance
or likelihood
More deviation in opinions
Not important issues
Low significance or
likelihood
High agreement
Emerging or fading away
type issues
Low significance or
likelihood
High deviation in
opinions

26. Interpreting prioritised Ideas and developing
‘Signals Analysis from the Horizon Scanning
work ……

27. The sort of thing we were looking at …. ?
Events and shocks that could impact on, change and add to the existing notions of Dimensions of Uncertainty.
Which Signals may be considered important but not well-understood/recognised.
How to increase knowledge and understanding of these Signals.
Identify what may challenge the ‘conclusions’ the Bubbles represent, are there any radical discontinuities that may be ‘down the line’ - the importance of those ‘weak Signals’.
What ‘values’ operate within ideas of learning infrastructures, examining how these might be subject to change.

28. The nature of change: Is it -
About new technological development in itself or the influence on or creation of ‘behaviours’?
Amplifying existing behaviour - ‘status quo +’
Fundamentally altering existing behaviour - ‘disruptive’
Which I believe has not helped our thinking in relation to technology and change and its influence on how we learn, often seeing technology as simply gearing up existing practice: we have, for a whole raft of other reasons too, tended to think that it is all about the technology as opposed to the nature of its adoption - look at SMS. 28

30. Addressing this issue will require changes in the interaction between:
Change Signal 4: Learning intelligence
Issues
The technological capacity to develop computer-based 'thinking systems' – such as the semantic web's development of intelligent web-based analysis systems for the management of lifelong learning – will grow and may revolutionise the idea of personalised learning.
Many services that are currently provided for learners by human agents may be provided by intelligent agents in the future. This will challenge but also free up capacity in teachers.
Augmentation of individual brain capacity will become increasingly possible and contentious.
Key contributing ideas
The role of what/where intelligence is will be questioned
Addressing this issue will require changes in the interaction between:
Technology
Space
People

31. Change: Uncertainties for the future?
How disruptive will a shift in power towards the learner be?
What will learners pay for in future?
What ‘commodities’ will education providers deal in?
Will ‘learning’ cease to be a formal, structured activity?
To what extent will learning institutions still need their own learning spaces?
Will intelligent computer-based systems take over the management of individuals’ lifelong learning?
Will brain augmentation become a standard proposition or a new form of inequality?

32. Change: A lifelong learning framework needs to consider that...
The learning infrastructure will need to:
meet the diverse needs of a demanding market
be flexible and able to support customised learning programmes
accommodate distinctions between virtual and physical learning
provide infinitely flexible physical spaces
reconsider what constitutes the individual learner
The learning infrastructure may need to:
allow mentors remote secure access to learners’ choices and online activities
co-locate more physical spaces with non-learning bodies
make a distinction between learning support in the physical and virtual worlds
manage developments in the augmentation of learners’ individual capacity
…it should track:
development and application of intelligent agents.

33. And we wrote a series of scenario ‘vignettes’ to suggest ‘narratives’ around the uncertainties, possibilities and viewpoints.

46. Simon Mauger
Simon Mauger 46