1. Capacity and delays at Newark Airport, theoretical and experimental approaches
Thomas Morisset

2. Objectives Review and apply essential notions studied in class:
Theoretical capacity
Actual capacity (based on maximum throughput)
Delay estimates based on queuing theory
Actual delays
Compare and understand the differences between theory and reality.

3. Newark Airport 443,000 movements 36 million passengers
13th busiest airport in the United States
22 minutes mean arrival delay, congested
EWR-JFK-LGA metroplex:
1,276,000 movements
110,000,000 passengers
busiest multi-airport system in the world
figures for 2007

4. Experimental approach to capacity [1]
26.7 mov per 15 min

5. Experimental approach to capacity [2]
24 mov per 15 min

6. Experimental approach to capacity [3]
22 mov per 15 min

7. Experimental approach to capacity [4]
22 mov per 15 min

8. Experimental approach to capacity [5]
Capacity varies depending on runway configuration, weather conditions:
Utilization 3rd runway
% time
% movts
mov/15min (98 %ile)
With 11/29
36.6%
39.0% 23
Without 11/29
62.8%
60.4% 21
Weather condition
% time
% movts
mov/15min (98 %ile)
VFR
83.4%
84.3% 22
IFR
16.6%
15.7% 21

9. Theoretical approach to capacity
Run the MACAD* capacity simulation program
Treat the simple case of 2 close parallel runways (4R|4L or 22L|22R)
Data needed:
aircraft mix: ASPM
IFR separation standards: FAA AC’s
VFR separation estimates**
approaching speeds, runway occupancy times
* Odoni, Stamatopoulos ** Trani

10. Theoretical approach to capacity
Run the MACAD* capacity simulation program
Treat the simple case of 2 close parallel runways (4R|4L or 22L|22R)
Data needed:
aircraft mix: computed from ASPM
IFR separation standards: FAA AC’s
VFR separation estimates**
approaching speeds, runway occupancy times
RESULTS:
IFR theoretical capacity: 18 movements per 15 minutes
VFR theoretical capacity: 20 movements per 15 minutes
Theoretical capacities are slightly lower than capacities yielded by theoretical approaches
* Odoni, Stamatopoulos ** Trani

11. arrivals+departures in 15 minutes capacity
All capacities
Method / Source
arrivals+departures in 15 minutes capacity
98th percentile 22
Pareto envelope (>100 obs)
Scheduled demand 23
FAA benchmark report
21-23
Macad Model (VFR) 20

12. Experimental approach to delays [1]

13. Experimental approach to delays [2]

14. Experimental approach to delays [3]

15. Experimental approach to delays [4]

16. Experimental approach to delays [5]
Performance of different runway configurations during peak hour (4pm – 8pm)
Runway configuration
All
22L | 22R
11, 22L | 22R
4R | 4L
4R, 11 | 4L
4R, 29 | 4L
Frequency
100%
30.5%
27.8%
14.4%
13.9%
8.0%
Arrival delay
31.2
43.9
14.5
48.0
18.4
25.4
Departure delay
27.1
35.1
16.8
37.5
20.0
23.4
+ Taxi out delay
20.8
17.7
20.6
19.9
28.2
23.2

17. Theoretical approach to delays
Run a queuing model program: DELAYS*
For different levels of capacity
For a particular day of demand (Feb ), NOT average demand
* Odoni, Kivestu

18. Conclusions Capacity: Delays:
theoretical and experimental approach within 15% of each other, a good match
can assist with the choice of runway configuration, comparing airports, etc.
Delays:
theoretical estimates much lower than reality
delays cannot be explained by the limited capacity of 1 single airport
must consider the entire network of airport to include delay propagation