1. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Relationship between State Precursor Policy and Methamphetamine Small Toxic Lab (STL) Seizures
YM Terry-McElrath,a DC McBride,b JF Chriqui,c,d J O’Connor,d K Mattson,e CJ VanderWaalb
aUniversity of Michigan, bAndrews University, cUniversity of Illinois at Chicago, dThe MayaTech Corporation, eEl Paso Intelligence Center
NIJ 2005IJCX0028
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

2. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Where We Were….
Meth STLs related to significant social costs
States developed a variety of policies to hopefully reduce STL meth production
Key informants indicated some of the introduced policies were believed to be effective
Anecdotal and single-state analyses had indicated policy success
No multi-state analysis had attempted to examine the issue
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

3. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
…and Where We Went
Obtained incident-level STL seizure data from all states from
Coded and applied state precursor policy to seizure data
Examined results from both within- and between-state models for evidence of changes in STL seizures related to precursor policy
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

4. Methods: STL Seizure Data
Incident-level seizure data obtained from Clandestine Laboratory Seizure System (CLSS)
CLSS is voluntary reporting system
US clandestine lab seizures by local, state and Federal law enforcement agencies
Seizures from for all states
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

5. Methods: STL Seizure Data, cont.
Work with EPIC to ensure only states with highest reporting accuracy included
Removal of super labs
Removal of non-methamphetamine-related STLs
Final seizure sample:
32 states
39,923 STL seizure incidents
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

6. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Methods: Combining State Pseudoephedrine Policy Data and STL Seizure Data
State precursor policy obtained for all states as of October 1, 2005 (O’Conner et al.)
Merged with seizure incident-level data
Based on policy effective date, all seizures coded as occurring prior to or on/after the effective date
Seizures aggregated into bi-monthly counts per state
Each case coded “1” if > 50% of seizures occurred on or after each policy-specific effective date
Resulting N: 2,010
Mean cases per state: 62.8; Range:
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

7. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Constructs
Outcome: bi-monthly count of seizures per state (used natural log in models)
Federal policy predictors from the “Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act” (dichotomous any/none)
Purchase quantity limits (effective 4/8/2006)
Clerk intervention (effective 9/30/2006)
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

8. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Constructs, cont.
State pseudoephedrine policy predictors
Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions
0=Neither clerk intervention nor quantity/packaging restrictions
1=Quantity/packaging restrictions only
2=Clerk intervention restrictions only
3=Both
Buyer purchase offense severity
0=Non-crime
1=Crime (misdemeanor or felony)
Specification of sales regulatory/enforcement agency
0=None specified
1=Agency specified
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

9. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Analyses
Within-state models
To explore pre- and post-policy changes in STL seizure rates
Limited to states that experienced policy change
Between-state models
To explore differences in STL seizure rates between states based on policy environment differences
Included all states
Analyses clustered by state, including state and year dummies
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

10. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Methamphetamine-related lab seizures (range=1-213)
19.86
State policies
1. Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions
Neither
56.1%
Quantity/packaging restrictions only
12.6%
Clerk intervention restrictions only
4.0%
Both
27.3%
2. Purchase severity defined as crime
22.6%
3. Specification of regulatory/enforcement agency
31.0%
Federal policies
1. Purchase quantity limits
21.1%
2. Clerk intervention
7.1%
Year
2004
35.8%
2005
33.6%
2006
30.7%
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11. Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in 32 Retained States,
Figure 1
Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in 32 Retained States, a b
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

12. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Figure 2
Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in Retained States with:
(a) No Precursor Laws
(b) Precursor Laws becoming Effective between
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

13. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Within-State Models: Changes in Federal Policy in States with No State Policy
Mean Seizures
1. Purchase quantity limits
Prior to policy
9.0
After policy
5.6***
2. Clerk intervention
8.5
5.1
Model Ns
N of states
(7)
N of cases
(411)
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

14. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Within-State Models: Changes in Clerk Intervention and Quantity/Packaging Restrictions Policy
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Mean
Seizures
Neither
14.5
21.1
38.4
Quantity/packaging only
7.4** --
Clerk only
6.2*
Both
21.6***
Model Ns
N of states
(4)
(2)
(13)
N of cases
(237)
(130)
(812)
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

15. Within-State Models: Changes in Buyer Penalty Severity Policy
Mean
Seizures
Initial non-crime severity
29.1
Moving to crime
(misdemeanor or felony)
17.5**
Model Ns
N of states
(8)
N of cases
(497)
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

16. Within-State Models: Changes in Regulatory/Enforcement Agency Policy
Mean
Seizures
Initially no specification
25.7
After specification
12.5***
Model Ns
N of states
(11)
N of cases
(664)
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

17. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Between-State STL Seizure Differences by Pseudoephedrine Precursor Policies
Est p
Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions
Neither
(ref)
Quantity/packaging only **
Clerk only
Both
Purchase severity
Crime (misdemeanor or felony)
0.1947
Specification of regulatory/enforcement agency
Yes
Federal policies
1. After purchase quantity limit policy
***
2. After clerk intervention policy
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

18. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Summary
Current paper analyzed direct seizure cases across multiple states, with results providing independent verification of such prior testimony and official reports
Policies that do, indeed, appear to relate to rapid and significant declines in the production of methamphetamine in STLs
Both state and Federal policy matter, with Federal policy providing a national baseline to increase the effectiveness of state policy efforts
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

19. 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy
Conclusions
Federal and state approach that includes designated regulatory agencies that can enforce precursor laws focusing on quantity controls and clerk intervention are crucial policy elements in efforts to reduce the harms associated with STL manufacturing of methamphetamine
11/5/ APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy