1. 10 year investment plan ERGEG approach and contribution
Benoît Esnault
ERGEG - Gas Network and Market Task Force
GTE+ workshop
Brussels, 21/01/2009

2. Context 3rd package Security of supply as a key issue
2008 EC Strategic Energy Review
Dispute between Russia and Ukraine
Need for improving market integration and solidarity mechanisms
GTE+ work on 10 year development statement investment development plan
Basement of ERGEG work
ERGEG approach: defining a formal drafting process and more emphasis on EU gas dynamics and long term energy strategy

3. ERGEG involvement, background
3rd Legislative Package: promotion of investment is a key requirement
Coordinated long-term planning of system development
Publication of network development plans by TSOs
EU 10 year investment plans prepared by ENTSOG
Role of the ACER
The ACER will be clearly involved in the process.
The ACER will be required to provide an opinion or to approve the plan (discussions between the European Parliament and the Council)
ERGEG work on 10 year investment plans
Framework guidelines based on GTE+ work and 3rd package requirements (not finalized yet )
Focus on the content and drafting methodology

4. Inputs and scope Factors driving investment planning Scope
Gas demand and supply evolution
Security of supply
Creation and development of new entry and exit points
Competition development and gas integration
Scope
Investments involving at least 2 MS or impacting adjacent systems
Take storage, LNG and CCGT projects into account
Challenge: diversity of investment practices in Member States
Reliance on market mechanisms Vs planning
Role of incentives

5. ERGEG approach to drafting the guidelines
Objectives of 10 year investment plan
Develop a shared vision of the future  transparency
Diagnosis on obstacles to gas transit across Europe  focus on cross border issues
Address priority developments and TSO projects  visibility
Anticipation on future gas deficits and emergency procedures  security of supply
Status of the EU-10 YIP
Built on scenarios on supply, demand and infrastructure development
Simulations of problems using an model of the integrated network
Periodic revisions: every 2 years
Monitoring report including justification of deviations between achieved and foreseen investments
Binding issues at a national level

6. Methodology : Top down & bottom up
Top down: developing a European perspective
EU energy dynamics and strategy
Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks
Risks of disruption (diagnosis + scenarios)
Integration of national markets and European priorities
Bottom-up: from national to European pictures (GTE+ work)
Summary of national investment plans
Collection on national data on supply & demand
Identification of investment gaps and technical and economic feasibility of necessary investment projects
Synthesis by ENTSOG
Coherence between national, regional and EU plans required
Consultation of the market fundamental for consistency

7. Way forward Active cooperation between ERGEG and GTE+
ERGEG framework guidelines, adoption process
Under discussion within ERGEG
Public consultation foreseen by March 2009
Objective: finalisation in May 2009
Future consultation procedures
Implement information collection procedures: obligation for stakeholders to provide the requested information to ENTSOG
Consult on 10 year investment plan’s consistency