1. Emerging Technologies
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2. Overview
Intent
Be able to identify those technologies that should be incorporated into a ‘To-Be’ EA
Content
Identify alternatives for EA components
Build options from best alternatives, using AnnL
Select sources for alternatives
In this Block we will see how to assess the risks of emerging technologies, including the price/ performance trade-offs. This material supports 035C1 primarily.
This Block draws upon Block 6 Information Collection. The sources of information about emerging technologies, such as are most pertinent here.
Of course, it also builds upon Block 9, where we saw how AnnL can be used to develop strategic objectives.
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3. Identify Alternatives for EA Components
This section covers the generation of alternative components for EA, from emerging technologies

4. Activity: How many options?
As a team
For 5 minutes
List as many different designs for a people transport vehicle as possible
That is, front wheel drive diesel, petrol convertible, rickshaw

5. Morphology of Technologies
One of the most powerful approaches for considering appropriate technologies is “Morphological analysis”
Stripped of its fancy title (morphology means shape), this approach
considers the attributes of a system,
looks at alternative ways of providing those attributes, and then
combine these alternatives into (thousands) of options
Morphological analysis was developed by Fritz Zwicky in the 30s, with his book “Discovery, Invention, Research” published in There is a Swedish website devoted to his works at
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6. Morphology of a Car Engine type Front wheel Body Passenger config None
. Human
. horse
Petrol
Diesel
Hybrid
Front wheel 1 2
Body
Sedan
Convertible
Ute
. Covered
. tray
Passenger config
Two front
. One rear
. Two rear
. > 2 rear
One front
.> 2 rear
Ask: How many combinations do we have?
= 5 x 2 x 4 x 6 = 240
Most of which exist. Point out Reliant or Messerschmitt or new hybrids with tandem passengers
Point out that can add other attributes, such as gearing or design of sedan or rear wheels or …..
Point out that some combinations are illogical/ infeasible/ illegal.
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7. Components of ICT
Have a look at the list of ICT components given at the back of the Toolbox
(Note: We are using the component headings as the attributes in our morphology)
In the “Inclusions or Alternatives” column, you will see several alternatives given for each component.
An option is a set of alternatives for all of the components of a system being designed.
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8. Activity: List new alternatives
As a team
For 10 minutes
Pick a component
List alternatives not already given
Be prepared to share the list
Emphasize that this list of alternatives is not complete - that is why they need to search the sources of information for emerging technologies.
Bring out new developments, such as e-paper or projectors for phones, blades and virtualization for servers, Ruby for programming language, SOA for application development.
Make the point, if they do not know what these new technologies are, then they better find out - they have significant risk for EA designs (remembering risk is positive as well as negative).
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9. Activity: Generate Options
As a team
For 10 minutes
Pair with another team
See how you can combine your list with their list to generate options

10. Using AnnL to Design Options
Open the AL_In workbook on your CD
Review the contents
Especially the capability values

11. List alternatives
Describe how alternative is described as a short (but meaningful label) and a explanation/ detailed description if necessary
The alternative is an answer to “design decision”, which is based upon one of the capability values. That is, turn each capability into a question and list the different ways that it can be answered.
The Types at the right show the resource that is the basis for the alternative. In EA, they could be “Way” (information, software, business process) or “With” (hardware or supporting equipment). They are given here as a checklist, to help you to examine the widest range of ways of providing the capability: developing an application usually involves software but perhaps there could be a special purpose tool or even rapidly-thinking ‘mentats’.
The entry in the order column further to the right determines the code. The order should show the design decision number and the alternative number.
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12. Link alternatives
The first number in the entries in the Links column opposite each Design Decision is the serial number for the alternatives that are within its scope. The I just shows that there is a link.
The entries with a serial number followed by - indicate blocked alternatives. That is, these alternatives cannot co-exist. For example, alterantive A1.1 cannot exist with alternatives A1.2.1 or A1.2.2 or A1.3.
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13. Display Links
Note: Open workbooks R4VlTr, R6Vls and R7AO. Open them in this order, otherwise an error message will appear concerning the need to edit links. Do not do that, just open the workbook that is not listed simply in the Edit Links dialogue box.
Point out that the alternatives are listed in both rows and columns.
The diagonal entries show whether the row is referring to a Design Decision (D) or an alternative (a).
The indicators in the cells show the links between alternatives (I), including blocks (-).
We will return to the figures in the Evln column shortly.
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14. Find the Best Alternatives
On the In workbook, scroll back up to the list of Values. Note that you have assigned a weight to these values earlier (either directly or through rating who wants what).
Scroll the right pane across to the Assessments of Alternatives section coded green and blue).
Using the letter scale of vs = very strong to wk = weak, show how well each alternative meets each of the important values that are relevant for the design decision.
Note: Do not have to assess every alternative against every value. Only some values are relevant for selecting between the alternatives within a given design design. If time is short, limit further to only those values that make a difference.
Also note: The alternatives were triggered by the capability values but this assessment uses other values.
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15. Build options from the alternatives
Return to the R7AO workbook.
Consider the Evln results. He figure in bold shows which alternative in a design decision (including its sub-decisions) best meets the values overall.
Identify which alternatives are the best for each design decision.
Note: This figure is not precise and should be treated only as a guide to judgement.
Return to the In workbook.
Scroll down to the Options section
Type in a label that represents the list of best alternatives.
Scroll the top right pane across to “Links between alternatives and options”
For the best alternatives, enter “n L”, where n is the serial number for the option.
If you can think of other combinations of good alternatives, type in an option label and repeat the linking process to show which alternatives link to it.
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16. Report options Open the R7AOd workbook and recalculate.
This report shows the alternatives that make up each option.
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17. Select Sources for Alternatives
Once the option has been generated, it should be checked as a whole for risk.
The risks could be:
Performance - will it work as a whole?
Conformance - is it legal, will people want to use it?
Price - can we afford it?

18. Analyze performance or conformance risk
Risk is a possible shortfall in a value
Need indicators of the likelihood of the shortfall = measures
Measures are technical contributions to business values
Described precisely, to reduce uncertainty in judgement if not in range of performance

19. Form measures Return to list of values on In workbook.
As for values, describe the measure (using more detail) and give its code.
There are chapters in the Toolbox that describe measures and Values Trees.
Scroll the right pane to the Values Tree section (green on green).
Build links between values and sub-values or between values and measures in the usual way: for the value, give the serial number and extent of contribution of the measure.
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20. Check links between measures and values
Report R4VlTr shows the links between values and sub-values, sub-values and measures.
Can be shown in words or numbers. Words avoids spurious precision. We are interested in large lumps of links.
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21. Assess performance shortfalls
On the In workbook, for the measures at the bottom of the list of values, show the likelihood that each option (if more than one) will meet the measure.
As usual, for the value, in the Assessment of Options section (blue on green), give the serial number for the option and then the letter scale of the likelihood (w = will, s = should or 80% likely, … sn = should not = 20% likely, wn = will not)
Open the R9Perf workbook to see how the performance against the measures cascades up the values tree to show the likelihhod of meeting the top level values.
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22. Assess price risk
In Business Cases (including those involving EAs), you need to determine the costs and financial benefits of options
These financial figures, or “prices”, are traded off through “Net Present Value”
Adjustment of income-outgoes according to the year of expenditure by an official discount rate
However, what we are interested in is, “Can we afford it?” or “Is it the best value-for-money”?
That is, what are the price-related risks of the options
Skip over Net Present Value, just leave it to an adjustment that reflects the costs of money over time.
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23. Calculate Price
On the In workbook, scroll to show the list of options and the Price Items section (yellow)
Explain that building price models can be an involved process, using Cost Accountants. However, a rough costing can be enough, as long as key cost items are not overlooked.
Point out that the major cost in any system is always people (>80%). So, EAs should always consider the impact of their designs upon people.
Point out that the ‘out year’ costs should be considered because maintenance/ sustainability is more expensive than initial acquisition.
Show how the price is calculated per unit in the bottom pane, including adjustments for percentage and fixed overheads.
Then the number of units is shown for each option, for each year. In the Resource unit section in the top right, the first number is the serial number for the resource and the second number is the units required.
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24. Report Business Case

25. Report risks and remedies
Report R8PrMd shows the costs over time (right)
Report R9Perf shows the likelihood of meeting the values (left)
Both results come together in the Business Case report in R10BCa (bottom left)
However, not really what we are interested in at this stage …
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26. Report risks (con) Something like Report R11Rskd is more useful.
Look for the shortfalls against the measures - and think of ways of removing them.
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27. Remedy risks
You could change something in the design, rearranging an alternative for some component.
You could add something external to the design, such as a training campaign.
These remedies have to be analyzed and costed to see if the remedy is better than the risk continuing.

28. Summary
Enterprise Architects, above all others, need to keep up with emerging technologies.
They need to be able to assess the positive and negative risks of these technologies, for the strategic direction, to see what should be designed into their architecture.
Next Block
Examine data modelling in more detail