1. Livelihood Systems & their Vulnerability to high food prices
WHERE?
WHO?
WHEN?
WHAT?

2. Livelihood Systems & Seasonal Calendars – (approximates)

3. Pastoralists Continued dependence on food aid in some areas
Deteriorating terms of trade
Livestock disease affecting Uganda & Kenya
Reduced mobilisation due to conflict & trade bans
Asset bases depleted from past droughts
To cope
reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services
Rely more on credit, gifts & remittance
Move to urban/peri-urban

4. Impact in pastoral livelihood zone Scenario - 50% price increase & reduced food aid
Impact on food sources
Impact on expenditure
Gap = 4 shoats
The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 44% food deficit before coping

5. Urban & peri-urban Cost of living increased by up to 50%
Asset bases (savings) depleting
To cope
Buy cheaper food direct from nearby rural farmers
Reduce expenditure - # of meals, non-staple foods
Reduce expenditure on water, soap, latrine etc (sanitation & hygiene)
Limit expenditure on social services & move to cheaper rent
Send (wife &) children to relatives or rural home
Limit use of cooking fuel & transportation
Rely more on credit, gifts & remit
Seek employment opportunities or negative IGAs

6. Impact on urban poor – Mukuru Kwa Ruben Scenario - 50% price increase
Impact on food sources
Impact on expenditure
Gap = 6, /-
The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 40% food deficit before coping

7. Agro-pastoral/Farmers
Examples from SNNPR, Ethiopia
Food Sources - poor
Income sources - poor

8. Agro-pastoral/Farmers
Drought, conflict & displacement have affected production in the region
Currently food secure but deteriorating rapidly – dependent on next harvest
25% increase in input costs & transportation
Deteriorating terms of trade
Asset bases depleted from past droughts – consume seeds
To cope
Seek alternative income – agricultural or off-farm
Reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services
Rely more on credit, gifts & remit
Move to urban/peri-urban
Poor Income = Ksh 20,000-60,000
Sale of own produce, unskilled income-generating activities (e.g. agricultural, fishing); collection & sale of firewood & sale of charcoal

9. Proportion of food from various sources by livelihood
Own production
Market Purchase
Wild foods
Gifts and Food Aid
Pastoral
10-30%
30-50%
5-15%
10-50%
Agro-pastoral
40-60%
40-50%
0-5%
Marginal Agricultural
30-40%
55-65%
High potential (mixed farming)
50-60%
High Potential (Cereal and diary) 0%
Urban (casual wages labour/trading)
0-10%
80-100%

10. What to keep in mind…..
Response needs to be designed appropriately for different livelihoods
Therefore, we need to know how people are living in different livelihood zones:
Context esp. access to markets/trade flows/volumes
How much they rely on the market to purchase food
…...to sell produce & labour (income)
How much they spend on non-food items & fuel
And quantify their coping strategies (expandability)
To understand how they will be affected by the “shock/s”, who will affected & when