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Russia’s economic prospects Torbjörn Becker Director of

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1 Russia’s economic prospects Torbjörn Becker Director of SITE@SSE

2 FREE network, Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies—A unique network of economics research institutes in the region Stockholm Moscow Minsk Kyiv Tbilisi Szczecin Riga

3 A World in Transition=SITE research
Growth miracles, financial and economic collapse and global economic power shifts Corruption and business environment Income distribution, poverty and development Domestic political turmoil and economics Religion and socio-economic outcomes International institutions (Re-)Evaluating history Energy; crisis or revolution

4 Chloé LeCoq Ph.D. SSE 2003 Energy, IO and Antitrust, Experimental Economics Torbjörn Becker Ph.D. SSE 1995 Macro, Financial Markets, Development Jesper Roine Ph.D. Stockholm University 2002 Political Economy, Public Economics, Inequality, Long-run Development Marieke Huysentruyt (part-time) Ph.D. LSE 2007 Organizational Economics, Behavioural Economics, Development Elena Paltseva Ph.D. SSE 2009 Political Economics, Industrial Organization Maria Perrotta Berlin Ph.D. IIES 2012 Development, political economics Jenny Simon Ph.D. MIT 2012 Fiscal policy, macroeconomics, public finance Ina Ganguli Ph.D. Harvard 2012 labor economics, the economics of science and innovation Anders Olofsgård Ph.D. SU 2001 Political Economy, Development, Applied Microeconomics . Lennart Samuelson Ph.D. SSE 1996 Russia’s social, economic and military history Giancarlo Spagnolo Ph.D. SSE 1999 Antitrust and IO, Corporate Finance and Governance, Experimental economics, Law and Economics, Procurement Erik Meyersson Ph.D. IIES 2012 Political economics, development, economic history

5 Russia oil forever(?)

6 Oilprice and Russian $ incomes

7 Oilprice and Russian RUB incomes

8 The econometric version of oil prices and Russian income

9 Trade: Russian exports
Oil

10 Russian roller-coaster mostly down
RUB/USD: > 79 RTS: > 700 Oil $/barrel > 33

11 Uncertain forecasts IMF WEO Oct 2015

12 IMF forecast of Russian GDP

13 Revised forecast=>major impact on Russian incomes
IMF WEO forecasts Oct 2012 and Oct 2015

14 Income and imports

15 Reserve fund coming down…

16 Inflation coming down?

17 Sweden Russia forever(?)

18 FDI flows, annual averages

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31 What “should” Russia do to diversify and modernize?

32 Institutions in Russia et al

33 Areas of institutional reforms
Rule of law Corruption Public admin

34 Not just economics… 12 years diff Freedom and liberty Life expectancy

35 Thanks! Torbjörn Becker www.hhs.se/site torbjorn.becker@hhs.se
Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @ Stockholm School of Economics


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