1. Copernicus Climate Change Service
Anca Brookshaw

3. Copernicus atmospheric monitoring service (CAMS)
Copernicus climate change service (C3S) 3

4. C3S vision
C3S vision
To become an authoritative source of climate information for Europe
To build upon national investments and complement national climate service providers
To support the market for climate services in Europe

5. C3S components Climate Data Store Sectoral Information System
Evaluation and Quality Control
Outreach and Dissemination
ECVs past, present and future
Observed, reanalysed and simulated
Derived climate indicators
Tools to support adaptation and mitigation at global and European level
Monitors quality of C3S products and services
Ensures C3S delivers state-of-the-art climate information to end-users
Identifies gaps in service provision
Bridges Copernicus with the research agenda in Europe (e.g. H2020, national research projects)
Web content
Public outreach
Coordination with national outreach
Liaison with public authorities
Conferences, seminars
Training and education

6. CDS architecture
The Climate Data Store will be at the heart of the C3S infrastructure and will provide information about past, present and future climate in terms of Essential Climate Variables and derived climate indicators.
The CDS will be designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets through a unified web interface, compliant with INSPIRE.
The CDS will contain observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, global and regional climate projections and seasonal forecasts.
The CDS will also provide an comprehensive set of software tools (toolbox) that will allow the users to develop applications that will make use of the content of the CDS.
This service will accommodate the needs of the highly diverse set of users that will include policy makers, experts as well as scientists.

7. Technical challenges:
Climate Data Store
Technical challenges:
Diversity of users
Diversity of data sets
Very large data volumes
Data residing at different locations
Interoperability, efficiency
User-defined workflows
Variety of presentation methods
Need for interactivity
Access via API
User management
Performance monitoring
controls
maps
text
graphs

8. Data repositories (distributed)
CDS architecture
Data repositories (distributed)
Located at different data providers, seamlessly available via CDS
May implement basic tools to perform analytics on local data
Web portal (centralised)
Content Management System (articles, news, events)
Browsing/searching CDS product catalogue, tools catalogue, …
Manages users’ data retrieval and computation requests
Broker/Scheduler
Dispatches data retrieval and computation requests to the relevant data repositories (including from other services)
Implements quality of service

9. Application Programming Interface (API)
CDS architecture
Adaptors
Ensure interoperability between the broker and each of the data repositories
Toolbox
Tools that run next to the data (e.g. at the data providers) when possible
Workflows that orchestrate the invocation of tools in a distributed fashion to combine data from different data repositories
Web based applications that let users interact with workflows
Compute layer
Will be used by the toolbox when tools cannot be run at the data locations
Designed to make use of cloud technologies in the future
Application Programming Interface (API)
Provides batch access to products and tools

10. Development of CDS software infrastructure
Climate Data Store
Development of CDS software infrastructure
2016 Q1: Start of contract
2016 Q3: Initial release of working prototype for limited testing
2017 Q1: First functional release exposed to a large user group, then quarterly releases with added functionality
2018 Q1: Final release
Development of CDS toolbox
2016 Q2: Start of contract

11. Global reanalysis: Regional reanalysis: Climate Data Store
ERA5 is now in production
32km global resolution
Uncertainty estimates
Improved use of observations
Newly reprocessed satellite data
Hourly data from 1979-NRT
Access to all input observations
Regional reanalysis:
European domain
Higher spatial resolution
Workshop planned for 2016 Q2
Competitive call by 2016 Q4

12. Hourly reanalysis fields
The ERA5 production in the making
Hourly reanalysis fields
ERA5 2-metre temperature compared to independent data
Observation feedback archive

13. Most of the preparations have been completed
Status and Road Map
Most of the preparations have been completed
Building the system
Scanning the 40-year period, and address issues in the observing system ….
The first production stream was recently started
2010-NRT stream to be released near the end of 2016
Ongoing work
some data issues for the earlier decades
monitoring the progress and quality of the products
NRT 16

14. C3S seasonal forecasts Copernicus Climate Change Service
Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available, to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available.
C3S seasonal service will be based on a multi-system framework.
Five European forecast systems have been selected:
three for immediate use (core providers): ECMWF, Met Office, Météo France
two for later use, following further development (additional providers): Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Interest in collaboration expressed by NCEP and JMA; terms and timings to be discussed.
Evaluation and quality control (EQC) function for seasonal forecast products will be provided by external contractors. It will include assessment of user needs and the degree to which the product portfolio addresses them.

15. Products Copernicus Climate Change Service
Original data: 1 deg gridded data sets for many variables (atmosphere, ocean; high temporal resolution: 6h - 24h)
Graphical products:
Processed data, starting with all data represented in the graphs.

16. C3S seasonal forecasts Copernicus Climate Change Service
Timeline: proof of concept (~2016) and pre-operational phase (to end of Q1 2018)
Progress so far:
Contracts for provision have started; negotiation is under way for preferred bidder for EQC activity.
Work has started on data acquisition, processing suites for products and interim solutions for access, as well as on definition of the next operational seasonal system for ECMWF’s contribution.
Products planned:
All data collected will be made freely available, to a prescribed schedule (when the technology to support dissemination is developed - approx. 1 year)
Product suite of ECMWF and EUROSIP; in first phase include core providers, later add the additional providers if appropriate
Multi-system combinations and the individual components will be made available
The future of EUROSIP will be decided when C3S becomes an operational service.

17. Seasonal forecasts: Technical requirements
Proof of concept phase (core providers only)
spatial resolution of data: 1 deg or original grid
temporal resolution of data: daily or sub-daily
ocean data not required in this phase
forecasts and reforecasts ( )
data delivery by 12Z on 10th day of month (product release on 15th day of month)
Pre-operational (all providers)
ocean data: on a grid to be agreed
data delivery by 12Z on 6th day of month (product release on 10th day of month)

18. Climate projections
Lot 1 (39 months): Provision of support to one Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node in Europe - facilitate access and manipulation of global climate projections from the CMIP5 archive.
technical requirements: response time, availability of a user friendly interface with the C3S’s CDS and web portal, documentation standards, implementation of appropriate protocols (eg OPeNDAP) to allow computations from stored data on local servers.
scientific requirements: number of supported models, number of available scenarios, availability of historical (eg 20th century to current date) simulations, minimum ensemble size.
Lot 2 (39 months): Multi-model product generation
definition of metrics for quantifying the fidelity of models in simulating historical climate,
application of these metrics to most historical model datasets served by C3S.
These metrics will use observations and reanalyses from the CDS, and will be translated into quality flags to inform selection of input to specific applications.
a set of interactive tools for generic products (e.g. maps of intra-ensemble variability for different models and scenarios), and tailored products for several economic sectors (including energy and water)
Lot 3 (27 months): Roadmap towards a reference set of climate projections for Europe (EUCP): studies to guide requirements for the operational phase of C3S. These studies will analyse how well CMIP6/MIPs address sectoral requirements.
Areas of interest:
the benefit of increased ensemble size versus resolution for global models, linking the results to the specific needs of different economic sectors.
the benefit of initialised projections for the first half of the 21st Century, and their consequences in terms of climate information to be used by sectoral applications (links to relevant FP7/H2020 projects and CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations are required).
EQC component for climate projection-based services is also being set up
Regional climate projections: PIN to be issued soon. .

19. Sectoral Information System
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Sectoral Information System
Proof of concept development of sectoral applications
Copernicus Climate Change Service

20. Seven proof of concept SIS contracts have been recently awarded:
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Sectoral Indicators
Seven proof of concept SIS contracts have been recently awarded:
SIS water management:
SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change adaptation) – lead SMHI (Sweden)
EDgE (End-to-End demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) – Lead CEH (UK)
SIS energy:
CLIM4ENERGY (Climate for Energy) – Lead CEA (France)
ECEM (European Climatic Energy Mixes) – Lead UEA (UK)
SIS others:
AgriCLASS (Agriculture Climate Advisory Services) – Lead Telespazio – Vega (UK)
WISC (Windstorm Information Service) – Lead CGI (UK)
URBAN-SIS (touching health, infrastructure, water) – Lead SMHI (Sweden)

21. WATER: SWICCA http://swicca.eu C3S Water manager Purveyor
Data Provider (C3S)

22. ENERGY: CLIM4ENERGY
Managing increasing sensitivity of supply-demand balance
to weather and climate variability
Evaluating risk changes
Evaluating renewable resources for investment
Evaluating changes in operating conditions
Accounting for sea-level rise

23. Commonalities between the SIS projects
Sectoral Indicators
Commonalities between the SIS projects
Use input data from the Climate Data Store
- observations, ECVs, reanalyses, seasonal forecasts, climate projections
- additional datasets (from other services, socio-economic data, etc.)
Stakeholders engagement:
- user workshops organised at very early stage
Demonstrators:
- via use cases
Wide user trials and feedback
Sectoral Climate Indicators will be accessible via the Climate Data Store

24. Distribution of SIS suppliers

25. Evaluation and Quality Control
Ensures C3S delivers state-of-the-art climate information to end-users
Identifies gaps in the service
Bridges Copernicus with research agenda in Europe (e.g. H2020, national research projects)
Monitors, continually, quality of C3S products and services
“Quality Assurance” body for the Service
Will be the instrument to develop the URDB/SES/etc. documents

26. PoC + Pre-operational Phase
Timeline
Stage 0/1 - Proof of Concept/Pre-operational
Stage II - Operational ~20 ECVs, ~5-6 Sectors
Stage III - Operational ~30 ECVs, ~10 Sectors
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Stage 0
Stage I
Stage II
Stage III
PoC + Pre-operational Phase
Operational Phase

27. Conclusions
C3S will provide a wealth of climate information based on a combination of earth observations and the latest science
The Climate Data Store will offer a “one-stop-shop” access to this information, and will include:
Data (including sectoral information)
Tools
Best practices
The Copernicus “full free open” data policy will be followed
Consistent with GEO Data sharing principles, WMO resolution 60, etc..
This will foster uptake by downstream services (national, local, private and public) and therefore support the market for climate services in Europe

28. climate.copernicus.eu climate.copernicus.eu
Copernicus Climate Change Service
climate.copernicus.eu
climate.copernicus.eu