1. Future Climate: What does it mean for reservoir water quality
Future Climate: What does it mean for reservoir water quality? WRA 1050/ WaterRF 4468 Comprehensive assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Reservoir Water Quality in a Range of Climatic Regions
Leon van der Linden
SA Water, Research and Innovation
Water RA Forum, WA, November 2013

2. Business Issue: Problem Statement
Climate change
Water security (quantity and quality; supply and demand), operational costs and asset longevity.
Impacts SA Water source waters.
Presents additional challenges to planning and operations.
“Managing these changing environmental conditions pose challenges in unchartered
territory and require long-term planning based on scientifically sound research.” - Denise Kruger, Water Research Foundation, Chair of Board of Trustees.

3. Climate: Variability and Change
Variability: interacting geophysical phenomena
Our understanding is still developing
Instrumental record has limited temporal and spatial extent
Proxies: flood debris, germination events, etc
Global circulation models still have major uncertainties; the science is underpinned by real data
Understanding the past and present weather is challenging

4. Projected temperature rises for South Australia
2020
2050
2080

5. Projected precipitation for Southeastern Australia
2020
2050
2080

7. Post, D. , Chiew, F. , Teng, J. , Wang, B. & Marvanek, S
Post, D., Chiew, F., Teng, J., Wang, B. & Marvanek, S. (2012) Projected Changes in Climate and Runoff for South-eastern Australia Under 1 °C and 2 °C of Global Warming. A SEACI Phase 2 Special Report.

8. Potential climate change impacts to the water business
Cost
Assets / Investments
Energy (pumping, desalination and price)
Coagulants
Disinfectants
Compliance
Pathogens / DBPs / Toxins
Outfalls
Greenhouse gas emissions
Customers
Aesthetics / tastes and odours
Demand
Water
Quality
Impacts

9. Projects on climate change impacts on water quality
Water Research Foundation / Water Research Australia:
Comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality in a range of climatic regions
VT, NCKU, UA
Literature review; integrated modelling analysis
Goyder Water Research Institute:
An agreed set of climate projections for South Australia
Task 4 – Development of an application test bed
UniSA, SARDI, UA, FU, DEWNR
Reservoir model sensitivity analysis; downscaling product evaluation

10. Potential climate change impacts on water quality
Elevated temperatures
Impacts on catchment biogeochemistry
Increased stratification
Release of ions from the sediments
Growth of cyanobacteria
Less frequent but more intense rainfall
Altered flow regimes
Increased transient inputs of:
sediment
pathogens
organic matter
Fe Mn PO4
WTP

11. Risk assessment Historically valid coupled model Water quality
Skilled GCM Climate Projections
Change Statistics
Distributions
Variable correlation
Weather Generator
meteorology
demand change
Historically valid coupled model
land use change
Catchment Data
Reservoir Data
Water quality
scenarios
Hydrological Model
Hydrodynamic Model
Water quality Model
Catchment and Reservoir Planning Options
Expert knowledge
Climate change impacts on water quality
Risk assessment

12. Model Sensitivity – ELCOM-CAEDYM – Happy Valley Res.
Overlay: Empirical sensitivity of monthly average chlorophyll to temperature anomaly

13. Integrating impacts into risk management framework

14. Risk Matrix - Defines management vigilance

15. Anticipated Outcomes Identification of risks to water quality
Reservoir stratification
Rainfall extremes
Catchment impacts
Develop methods to quantify risks
Contribute to corporate risk management
Provide information for long term planning
Comprehensive climate change scenarios
Quantified changes in risk
Hi Leon,
The Outcomes required from the SA water Corporate Business Plan related to Climate Change are:
Compliance with relevant legislation, regulations standards and voluntary agreements
A suite of tools for climate change scenario planning for impacts on source water, water quality, assets, customer demand, and price (adaptation).
The second one is the relevant one for your study
The long term 2023 goal identified is:
Develop sound knowledge and improved forecasting on climate variability and determine their impacts on SA Water’s operations, including water security (quantity and quality), waste water treatment, land management